What will be the top issue in the 2024 Republican primary?
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May 09, 2021, 06:51:08 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  What will be the top issue in the 2024 Republican primary?
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Question: What will be the top issue of the 2024 Republican primary?
#1
Abortion
 
#2
Immigration
 
#3
Jobs/Economy
 
#4
Stopping "socialism"
 
#5
Electability
 
#6
Cancel culture
 
#7
Loyalty to Donald Trump
 
#8
Covid-19
 
#9
Something else
 
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Total Voters: 46

Author Topic: What will be the top issue in the 2024 Republican primary?  (Read 379 times)
EJ24
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« on: May 04, 2021, 06:47:15 AM »

?
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Lone Star Politics
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2021, 08:42:38 AM »
« Edited: May 06, 2021, 05:48:08 PM by Lone Star Politics »

But what if the top issue hasn't arrived yet? Wink


Remember in '08 it was the recession, in '20 it was covid. We didn't see those coming early in the election process.

But assuming nothing major/bad happens, it'll probably just be jobs/economy, or the GOP will not learn their lesson and focus entirely on "muh socialism sucks" TPUSA talking points like they're treating the entire country like Miami.

Oh and loyalty to Donald Trump. If theyíre not loyal enough and Trump doesnít like them, the MAGA base wonít vote for them, therefore they wonít be the nominee.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2021, 08:47:41 AM »

Cancel culture followed by immigration. Perhaps with a streak of "blue lives matter" stuff and QAnon idiocy. These are the stupid culture war issues GOP candidates try to score points off.
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SN2903
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2021, 09:50:16 AM »

1. Economy/China
2. Loyalty to Trump
3. Electability
4. Immigration/Cancel Culture
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2021, 09:53:38 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2021, 09:58:06 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Loyalty to Trump, that's a good one because any average person would have been thrown in jail for inciting riots BLM protesters get thrown in jail all the time for inciting riots which is a misdemeanor and what Trump did is considered a felony against Congress

We know Biden is compromised from Indicting Trump due to fact they both took Russian and Ukrainian money, that's why Biden Justice Dept was concerned about a Laptop with Hunter Biden probe not about Trump

Trump or Pence would never be Prez due to ads would be played over and over again over riot

Haley or DeSantis, are gonna be nominees but DeSantis is losing by , 17 pts to Biden and Harris 12, I know it's exaggerated but Afro Americans not Latinos are in WI, PA and MI which DeSantis does poorly with that's why he almost lost to Gillium
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Da2017
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2021, 10:00:34 AM »

Loyality to Donald Trump.
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Bernieís Mittens
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2021, 10:38:30 AM »

Loyalty to Dear Leader followed by cancel culture and owning the libs.

Lol to the responses of policies in this thread. The Republican Trump Party Cult has shown that it doesn't care about any policies other than the deportation of brown people. Wouldn't be surprised if we hear #BuildThatWall again.

Basically, the top issue will be who can outcrazy Qtip Taylor Greene and Batcrap Boebert and all the other fascist deplorables.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2021, 01:58:15 PM »

1. Loyalty to Donald Trump

2. Who can spew the most vile attacks on Kamala Harris

Basically a repeat of 2016. Every single question in every debate was either a response to something Trump said or attaching Hillary Clinton jeez

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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2021, 02:00:19 PM »

Hot take/write in: War on Big Tech and their alleged "censorship" of "true conservatives".
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DS0816
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2021, 02:56:15 PM »

The Republicans may have something if, for one, they make a key issue censorshipóand that the establishment Democrat types are for it while the Republicans are opposed.
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Chips
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« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2021, 10:53:52 PM »

#4 I feel.
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beesley
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« Reply #11 on: Today at 05:29:51 AM »

No issues will matter that much because they will all boil down to 'repeating talking points'.
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AverroŽs Nix
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« Reply #12 on: Today at 09:42:01 AM »

There's not much to say until the midterms have concluded. A couple of quick thoughts:

1. Some version of the narrative of Main Street vs. Silicon Valley will remain important both as a cultural dichotomy and a criticism of the weaker points of the Biden recovery.

It doesn't really matter how strong and complete the recovery is, the opposition party has to make the case that it isn't enough. That side of things won't get as much emphasis if the economy is strong, but the big narratives usually set in prior to anyone seeing the most relevant data.

The demographic side of this remains highly speculative but the more forward-looking parts of the party are thinking about winning more votes from young people, especially married women and men who aren't white.

2. Trump is popular enough that no one will win without flattering his base. However, there are a lot of Republicans who would be happier with a nominee who least implicitly admits to Trump's faults, and many will demand a nominee who has something else to say. Trump enthusiasts remain an important part of the coalition, and an important group of general election voters, but they are not a majority of primary voters.

Republican politicians need a strategy for speaking to the Trump enthusiast group in one way while having different messages for other voters. This is something that DeSantis has modeled somewhat effectively, and it's not as challenging as you might think to segment these messages. Trump enthusiasts tend to be politically unsophisticated and much less media-savvy than the personalities who are most adept at manipulating them.

One significant difficulty with this feat is that the Trump baby-talk is often the only Republican messaging that receives any mainstream media coverage. This is a significant problem for any Republican with aspirations to popularity outside of the party, but it's a less serious problem for the primary electorate, within which the non-enthusiasts tend to be skeptical enough of what they are told to be outraged about that it doesn't matter so much.

To summarize, the treatment of Trump during the primary will take the form of something between the adulation of Reagan and the (until 2016, largely respectful) un-personing of George W. Bush. I think we could see an outright rejection of Trump in 2024, but it would have to come from an outsider because the party's conventional wisdom isn't going to turn on itself. For now anyone taking that line will relegate themselves to the party's margins, especially if it's from a Huntsman/Kasich/Cheney type.
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AverroŽs Nix
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« Reply #13 on: Today at 09:46:42 AM »

Hot take/write in: War on Big Tech and their alleged "censorship" of "true conservatives".

Censorship of conservative media personalities is an extremely narrow facet of how Republicans can demagogue against Big Tech. We live in a country in which most CPAP devices now contain a microchip that will report you to your health insurance company if you're not wearing it every night.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #14 on: Today at 10:06:43 AM »

Trump
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: Today at 11:30:27 AM »

Without question -- Donald Trump. If he does not run in 2024, then the GOP is so configured that the test will be on who best takes his mantle... which means who is most like him and most loyal to him as a person. The Democrats do not have such a concern with who was most loyal to Obama.

The personality cult surrounding Trump will remain intact. Every Democratic pol will abhor Trump, if in different ways and for different reasons (and probably multiple reasons. 
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #16 on: Today at 12:28:25 PM »

1. Loyalty to Trump
2. Cancel culture
3. "Stopping socialism"
4. Immigration
5. Other (tough on crime)
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Chuck Grassley/Kyrsten Sinema Stan
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« Reply #17 on: Today at 02:34:52 PM »

Hot Take: Loyalty to Trump wonít be as much of a factor in 2024, though it will still loom.
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Vosem
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« Reply #18 on: Today at 02:48:18 PM »

But what if the top issue hasn't arrived yet? Wink


Remember in '08 it was the recession, in '20 it was covid. We didn't see those coming early in the election process.

Not to dispute that those were the main issues of the general elections, but the primary happens much earlier in the year and most of the discourse around it is set more than a year before the election. The top issue in the 2008 Republican primary was not the recession, and in the 2020 Republican primary it was not COVID. Inasmuch as primaries have "top issues" -- a questionable suggestion -- the top issue in the 2008 Republican primary was still foreign policy and support for the War on Terror (see the fairly long-lasting lead for foreign-policy-emphasizing Rudy Giuliani and an eventual victory for McCain); Romney and Huckabee both ran on messages with more of the 2010s in them but were unsuccessful (though both did quite well). In the 2020 Republican primary the top issue for Weld's challenge of Trump was just Trump's personality, with maybe immigration as a secondary issue.

Since I've been paying attention to US politics -- so, since 2007 -- the narrative for a primary has usually been set in the summer before a general election year (summer 2007, summer 2011, summer 2015, summer 2019). Presumably the narrative for the 2024 primaries will be set in the summer of 2023.

This creates discontinuities, by the way: neither Obama nor McCain really wanted to run in a recession-focused election. Extremely lengthy campaigns create their own dynamics which change the zeitgeist in odd ways: Romney was a better candidate for November 2011 than November 2012, and Hillary better for November 2015 than November 2016.

Global health ending up as the main issue of our first (...but certainly not last) campaign between two septuagenarian candidates feels, if anything, weirdly appropriate.
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Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #19 on: Today at 04:08:33 PM »

But what if the top issue hasn't arrived yet? Wink


Remember in '08 it was the recession, in '20 it was covid. We didn't see those coming early in the election process.

Not to dispute that those were the main issues of the general elections, but the primary happens much earlier in the year and most of the discourse around it is set more than a year before the election. The top issue in the 2008 Republican primary was not the recession, and in the 2020 Republican primary it was not COVID. Inasmuch as primaries have "top issues" -- a questionable suggestion -- the top issue in the 2008 Republican primary was still foreign policy and support for the War on Terror (see the fairly long-lasting lead for foreign-policy-emphasizing Rudy Giuliani and an eventual victory for McCain); Romney and Huckabee both ran on messages with more of the 2010s in them but were unsuccessful (though both did quite well). In the 2020 Republican primary the top issue for Weld's challenge of Trump was just Trump's personality, with maybe immigration as a secondary issue.

Since I've been paying attention to US politics -- so, since 2007 -- the narrative for a primary has usually been set in the summer before a general election year (summer 2007, summer 2011, summer 2015, summer 2019). Presumably the narrative for the 2024 primaries will be set in the summer of 2023.

This creates discontinuities, by the way: neither Obama nor McCain really wanted to run in a recession-focused election. Extremely lengthy campaigns create their own dynamics which change the zeitgeist in odd ways: Romney was a better candidate for November 2011 than November 2012, and Hillary better for November 2015 than November 2016.

Global health ending up as the main issue of our first (...but certainly not last) campaign between two septuagenarian candidates feels, if anything, weirdly appropriate.

I must've misread the topic then. More than likely it will be loyalty to the Donald that determines who will get the nomination, as whoever wins cannot win without the MAGA vote (for better or for worse).
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