Is this a plausible map for 2024?

[Would vote for Hillary Clinton over Joe Biden.]

https://www.270towin.com/maps/2engo

[TML]

I don't see a map in your post.

[BlueSwan]

I don't see a map in your post.

The GQP finally achieved 100% voter suppression.

[Would vote for Hillary Clinton over Joe Biden.]

I don't see a map in your post.

I have posted a link. Thank you for letting me know.

[Xing]

I’d be a bit surprised to see Maine flip in this scenario, but sure, it’s plausible.

[Skill and Chance]

Arizona flipping without Nevada would surprise me, especially in a world where Georgia stays Dem.  Otherwise everything seems plausible. 

[DS0816]

https://www.270towin.com/maps/2engo

At the very least, switch the colors indicated for Arizona and Michigan.

[Independents for George Santos]

Since you're a Maine republican, I may sense some bias, but there's usually a fluke state and in a year where the GOP is winning back AZ, WI and PA, an overperformance in another state is hardly out of the question. Though I'll echo the thoughts of others, I think the unlikely flip in this case would be NV if latino trends are enough to flip AZ.

[Meatball Ron]

Plausible except for ME-AL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI is just as R for Rs as OH is D for D's, WI voted for every D Prez since 1912, except for 1916 and it voted for Carter and Dukakis, WI is a Democratic state look it up on Election results

Wilson, FDR, Truman, LBJ won WI except Kennedy

[Crumpets]

https://www.270towin.com/maps/2engo

Explain your reasoning on Maine, when the state just swung 9 points (trended 4 points) to the Dems, with both parties set to nominate either the same or very similar candidates next time round?

[One Term Floridian]

Did the GOP nominee pick Susan Collins as VP? lol

[Would vote for Hillary Clinton over Joe Biden.]

I’d be a bit surprised to see Maine flip in this scenario, but sure, it’s plausible.

It seems to me that Maine at large is more competitive than NH. NH was very close in '16 but drifted toward the Democrats in 2020, and has not been won by the GOP since 2000. Maine's 2nd district is already strongly Republican (voting nearly 60% for Trump TWICE) and Maine is less educated than NH and getting whiter. It seems that Maine at large would flip before NH or NV. Just my thoughts, I could be completely wrong.

[Would vote for Hillary Clinton over Joe Biden.]

https://www.270towin.com/maps/2engo

At the very least, switch the colors indicated for Arizona and Michigan.

I don't agree with that stateent, but I do agree that an edit was needed: https://www.270towin.com/maps/rQkAX I figured if GOP flips AZ, then NV closely follows, but PA remains blue, echoing suburban trends in NE-02 and MI.

[Would vote for Hillary Clinton over Joe Biden.]

Plausible except for ME-AL

Do you care to explain why ME-AL is out of reach for Republicans. It was very close in 2016, and much like the states of the Rust Belt and Midwest, Maine is becoming older, whiter, and less educated. I agree ME-01 is out of reach for Republicans, but why can't the rural, white, old population of Maine-02 combined with some Republicans in Maine-01 outvote the Democratic votersof Maine-01.

[Figueira]

Sure, it's plausible. I wouldn't bet on it, though. Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan are all more likely to flip than Maine.

[Chips]

It could happen.

[Meatball Ron]

Plausible except for ME-AL

Do you care to explain why ME-AL is out of reach for Republicans. It was very close in 2016, and much like the states of the Rust Belt and Midwest, Maine is becoming older, whiter, and less educated. I agree ME-01 is out of reach for Republicans, but why can't the rural, white, old population of Maine-02 combined with some Republicans in Maine-01 outvote the Democratic votersof Maine-01.

I never said it's out of reach - just not a plausible flip in a scenario where Dems are holding closer states like Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, etc. Clinton underperformed heavily in New England (only winning NH by a point, tighter margins than usual in blue states like VT and RI) so I'm not sure that's the best benchmark. We'll see in '24 whether Hillary's performance or Biden's performance was the outlier.

Also, I'm not sure I believe the state is "becoming older, whiter, and less educated." Rather, that demographic that exists in ME-02 is trending GOP, I agree, but that area is also hemorrhaging population; the growth in the state is in the younger, more educated Portland area.

[Agonized-Statism]

A possibility. Maine is one of those states that could take Atlas by surprise, but since the storming I've been skeptical of claims that the Republican will improve from 2020 in general.