When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

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Re: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

It’s already there.

According to Wikipedia, “In American politics, the term swing state (or battleground state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate by a swing in votes.”

In United States presidential elections, the amount of pickup states usually correlates with increments of an estimated +1 in percentage points nationally shifted from the previous U.S. presidential election.

The last two times the presidency flipped Republican were in 2000 and 2016. Neither Republican presidential pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump won over the U.S. Popular Vote. Had they, their percentage-points margins would have both reached +2.

I look at the 2020 Democrats as having followed a 2016 adjusted margin of –2. Their 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States was a popular-vote margin of +4.45. They won a net gain of five states plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

Since 1992, the average number of carried states have been 29 with the range between 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) and 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton). Winning Republicans tend to average 9 electoral votes per carried state. Winning Democrats tend to average 12 electoral votes per carried state. The Republicans winning the presidency will carry at least 28 states but are more likely to carry at least 30 states. The Democrats winning the presidency will carry at least 21 states but, due to where carried states will rank, will end up with at least 23 but, then again, are likely to carry at least 25 states because only three presidential-election winners (in 1824, 1960, and 1976) carried less half the nation’s states.

Given this period of a structural electoral pattern, a swing state is going to generally be one which ranks between No’s. 21 to 30, with the perspective of either major party, and is winnable. For the 2016 Democrats, Texas was their No. 29 best state. For winning a 2020 pickup of the presidency of the United States, Texas was the Democrats’ No. 28 best state. It would not surprise me if Texas, in 2024, moves to No. 27 for the Democrats.

Since 1960, but with exception of 1992, prevailing Democrats have carried +21 or +22 states in excess of their percentage-points margins in the U.S. Popular Vote. A 2020 Joe Biden was at +21. He was three states from Texas. (Nos. 26 and 27 were North Carolina and Florida.) The 2020 Democrats needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 in order to flip and carry Texas. That margin was reached by 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama. He won nationally by +7.26 and carried 28 states with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia.

Texas, for the Democrats, is closer than some realize. It is matter of reaching the necessary numbers.

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Re: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

The 2020 Democrats needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 in order to flip and carry Texas. That margin was reached by 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama. He won nationally by +7.26 and carried 28 states with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia.

Texas, for the Democrats, is closer than some realize. It is matter of reaching the necessary numbers.

No, Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 9-10 points in order to carry Texas in 2020

No.

A U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 percentage points was needed for the 2020 Democrats to flip and carry Texas.

You can factor the amount of votes cast for U.S. President (over 150 million); the increments (over 1.5 milion) in raw-vote margin for each percentage point; and that raw-vote margin in Texas (just over 630,000), as a Republican hold, was lower than that raw-vote margin nationwide (over 7 million meaning, a raw-vote margin of +10.5 million nationally would have been enough and not so much a need for +13.5 million).

People here make the mistake of looking only at the percentage-points margin for where a given state finished. They do not refer to the order of the states—from the perspectives of the Republicans and the Democrats—for where each one ranked.

In U.S. presidential elections which especially switch the White House party, there tends to be a net gain of +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted in the direction of that pickup-winning party. So, if we get Election #01 won by Party A with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, and Election #02 is a pickup for Party B also with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, that would be a 10-point national shift resulting in a net gain of +10 states.

Prevailing Democrats are on a pattern of +21 or +22 states, in excess of their percentage-points margins in the U.S. Popular Vote, to determine the amount of states liable to get carried. For prevailing Republicans, it is +28. So, a winning Democrat by +5 would carry 26 or 27 states; a prevailing Republican by +5 would carry 33 states.

2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner Joe Biden, with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +4.45 and carriage of 25 states, needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5 to also flip [No. 26] North Carolina; +6 to also flip [No. 27] Florida; and +7 to also flip [No. 28] Texas.

It doesn’t take +9 percentage points, in the U.S. Popular Vote, for a winning Democrat to carry 28 states. A U.S. Popular Vote margin of +6 or +7 will get them to reach carriage of 28 states.

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Re: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

The 2020 Democrats needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 in order to flip and carry Texas. That margin was reached by 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama. He won nationally by +7.26 and carried 28 states with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia.

Texas, for the Democrats, is closer than some realize. It is matter of reaching the necessary numbers.

No, Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 9-10 points in order to carry Texas in 2020

In U.S. presidential elections which especially switch the White House party, there tends to be a net gain of +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted in the direction of that pickup-winning party. So, if we get Election #01 won by Party A with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, and Election #02 is a pickup for Party B also with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, that would be a 10-point national shift resulting in a net gain of +10 states.

This is extremely faulty logic and meets the correlation isnt causation fallacy

It is an electoral pattern. A structural one.

Since 1992, the average number of states carried by presidential-election winners have been 29 with the range between 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) and 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton).

Winning Republicans have been averaging 9 electoral votes per carried state. (For a Republican-aligned state, South Carolina has 9 electoral votes.)

Winning Democrats have been averaging 12 electoral votes per carried state. (For a Democratic-aligned state, Washington has 12 electoral votes.)

With the exception of 1992 Bill Clinton, every prevailing Democrat since 1960 John Kennedy carried +21 or +22 states in excess of their percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote.

The Republicans, since 1992, fit with +28 as their last two pickup winners—2000 George W. Bush and 2016 Donald Trump—did not win the U.S. Popular Vote. Had they done so, their percentage-points margin would have reached +2. A 2000 Bush followed 1996 Bob Dole’s U.S. Popular Vote margin of –8.52 by flipping +11 states. A 2016 Trump followed 2012 Mitt Romney’s U.S. Popular Vote margin of –3.86 and flipped +6 states (four which rank among the nation’s Top 10 populous). They both carried 30 states. (With re-election in 2004, Bush won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.46 and carried 31 states.)