What does swing state mean?
Do you mean when you think it'll swing to the Democrats?
Or do you mean when will it be competitive?
If the former, then probably 2028 - 2032
If the latter, then 2024
By the general definition of the term, when both Democratic and Republican candidates get roughly similar levels of support among voters. Georgia and Arizona being the most recent examples.
Then 2024 (even if Democrats don't win I expect the margin there to be competitive and for both sides to receive roughly similar levels of support among voters, probably less than a 5% margin)
Why rule it out entirely?
It's too early. Also, there is a complicating factor with Republican gains in the Rio Grande Valley, and we don't yet know how much of an effect the recently-passed voter suppression measures will have on voter turnout among Democrats especially in the major urban centers like Houston and Dallas.
I'm being cautious here given the unknowns.
You're safely ruling out 2024 because it's too early and there's too many unknowns?
By that logic, then there's no point to this poll and everyone should vote "Not ever" because we don't know what Texas will look like in 4 years, 8 years, 12 years, 16 years, 20 years, etc.
Poll
