When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State? (user search)
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  When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: When do you think Texas is going to become a swing state?
#1
2028
 
#2
2032
 
#3
2036
 
#4
2040
 
#5
Not ever
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?  (Read 3447 times)
Frodo
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« on: May 03, 2021, 05:14:53 PM »

I think we can safely rule out 2024...
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Frodo
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Posts: 24,511
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WWW
« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2021, 05:21:36 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2021, 05:25:56 PM by America Needs Kali »

What does swing state mean?

Do you mean when you think it'll swing to the Democrats?
Or do you mean when will it be competitive?

If the former, then probably 2028 - 2032

If the latter, then 2024

By the general definition of the term, when both Democratic and Republican candidates get roughly similar levels of support among voters.  Georgia and Arizona being the most recent examples.  


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Frodo
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Posts: 24,511
United States


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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2021, 05:33:12 PM »

What does swing state mean?

Do you mean when you think it'll swing to the Democrats?
Or do you mean when will it be competitive?

If the former, then probably 2028 - 2032

If the latter, then 2024

By the general definition of the term, when both Democratic and Republican candidates get roughly similar levels of support among voters.  Georgia and Arizona being the most recent examples.  

Then 2024 (even if Democrats don't win I expect the margin there to be competitive and for both sides to receive roughly similar levels of support among voters, probably less than a 5% margin)

Why rule it out entirely?

It's too early.  Also, there is a complicating factor with Republican gains in the Rio Grande Valley, and we don't yet know how much of an effect the recently-passed voter suppression measures will have on voter turnout among Democrats especially in the major urban centers like Houston and Dallas. 

I'm being cautious here given the unknowns. 
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Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,511
United States


WWW
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2021, 09:38:34 PM »

What does swing state mean?

Do you mean when you think it'll swing to the Democrats?
Or do you mean when will it be competitive?

If the former, then probably 2028 - 2032

If the latter, then 2024

By the general definition of the term, when both Democratic and Republican candidates get roughly similar levels of support among voters.  Georgia and Arizona being the most recent examples.  

Then 2024 (even if Democrats don't win I expect the margin there to be competitive and for both sides to receive roughly similar levels of support among voters, probably less than a 5% margin)

Why rule it out entirely?

It's too early.  Also, there is a complicating factor with Republican gains in the Rio Grande Valley, and we don't yet know how much of an effect the recently-passed voter suppression measures will have on voter turnout among Democrats especially in the major urban centers like Houston and Dallas.  

I'm being cautious here given the unknowns.  

You're safely ruling out 2024 because it's too early and there's too many unknowns?

By that logic, then there's no point to this poll and everyone should vote "Not ever" because we don't know what Texas will look like in 4 years, 8 years, 12 years, 16 years, 20 years, etc.

I meant that I would like to see how the elections in 2022 and 2024 go so we can have a clearer picture on where Texas is likely headed.  I don't know yet how much of an impact any of these factors would have on our chances.  The next few elections should hopefully clear that up.  Sound reasonable to you?  


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