When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

[Xing]

I don’t think we can “rule out” 2024, even if Republicans will start out favored. I won’t say for sure, but I think it’ll at least be competitive from here on out, even if we really are going to play the same game we did with Georgia of it chronically “not being there yet.”

[Xing]

Texas and Georgia aren't identical, but the logic behind Texas "not being there yet" is similar, made for the same reasons, and will probably be proven wrong sooner rather than later. The trendline in Texas is very clear, and while I'm not guessing it'll flip in 2024 (though I do think it'll be close), it would be very foolish of Republicans to take it for granted, since the massive swing in South Texas still wasn't anywhere near enough to offset the Democratic gains in the suburbs, and it's not clear that Republicans will keep their gains among rural Latinos, much less continue to improve dramatically (I don't think Starr county will swing another 55 points to the right in 2024.)