When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?
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May 09, 2021, 05:17:03 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?
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Poll
Question: When do you think Texas is going to become a swing state?
#1
2028
 
#2
2032
 
#3
2036
 
#4
2040
 
#5
Not ever
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 29

Author Topic: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?  (Read 444 times)
America Needs Kali
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« on: May 03, 2021, 05:14:53 PM »

I think we can safely rule out 2024...
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Miramarian
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2021, 05:16:41 PM »

What does swing state mean?

Do you mean when you think it'll swing to the Democrats?
Or do you mean when will it be competitive?

If the former, then probably 2028 - 2032

If the latter, then 2024
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2021, 05:21:20 PM »

Imo, it’s going to vote for the next Republican in his election and his re-election before it becomes competitive, it won’t go blue before that I don’t think.
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America Needs Kali
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2021, 05:21:36 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2021, 05:25:56 PM by America Needs Kali »

What does swing state mean?

Do you mean when you think it'll swing to the Democrats?
Or do you mean when will it be competitive?

If the former, then probably 2028 - 2032

If the latter, then 2024

By the general definition of the term, when both Democratic and Republican candidates get roughly similar levels of support among voters.  Georgia and Arizona being the most recent examples.  


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Miramarian
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2021, 05:28:03 PM »

What does swing state mean?

Do you mean when you think it'll swing to the Democrats?
Or do you mean when will it be competitive?

If the former, then probably 2028 - 2032

If the latter, then 2024

By the general definition of the term, when both Democratic and Republican candidates get roughly similar levels of support among voters.  Georgia and Arizona being the most recent examples.  

Then 2024 (even if Democrats don't win I expect the margin there to be competitive and for both sides to receive roughly similar levels of support among voters, probably less than a 5% margin)

Why rule it out entirely?
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America Needs Kali
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2021, 05:33:12 PM »

What does swing state mean?

Do you mean when you think it'll swing to the Democrats?
Or do you mean when will it be competitive?

If the former, then probably 2028 - 2032

If the latter, then 2024

By the general definition of the term, when both Democratic and Republican candidates get roughly similar levels of support among voters.  Georgia and Arizona being the most recent examples.  

Then 2024 (even if Democrats don't win I expect the margin there to be competitive and for both sides to receive roughly similar levels of support among voters, probably less than a 5% margin)

Why rule it out entirely?

It's too early.  Also, there is a complicating factor with Republican gains in the Rio Grande Valley, and we don't yet know how much of an effect the recently-passed voter suppression measures will have on voter turnout among Democrats especially in the major urban centers like Houston and Dallas. 

I'm being cautious here given the unknowns. 
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Chuck Grassley/Kyrsten Sinema Stan
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2021, 05:38:15 PM »

2030’s or 2040’s?

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Old School Republican
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2021, 06:44:46 PM »

Likely R: 2024
Lean R: 2028
Tossup : 2032
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dw93
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2021, 07:36:25 PM »

It won't be in 2024 (I think Harris is elected to succeed Biden) and I doubt it'll be in 2028, but it will continue to trend blue for the most part.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2021, 07:39:08 PM »

I don’t think we can “rule out” 2024, even if Republicans will start out favored. I won’t say for sure, but I think it’ll at least be competitive from here on out, even if we really are going to play the same game we did with Georgia of it chronically “not being there yet.”
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2021, 06:46:32 AM »

I don’t think we can “rule out” 2024, even if Republicans will start out favored. I won’t say for sure, but I think it’ll at least be competitive from here on out, even if we really are going to play the same game we did with Georgia of it chronically “not being there yet.”

Texas was about as close in 2020 as Georgia was in 2016. Just saying...
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2021, 10:32:42 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2021, 10:37:03 AM by Old School Republican »

I don’t think we can “rule out” 2024, even if Republicans will start out favored. I won’t say for sure, but I think it’ll at least be competitive from here on out, even if we really are going to play the same game we did with Georgia of it chronically “not being there yet.”

Texas was about as close in 2020 as Georgia was in 2016. Just saying...


Texas and Georgia aren’t really as comparable as you guys think . A better comparison for Texas is Arizona and 2020 Texas voted more than two points to the right of 2016 Arizona even as the nation moved more than two points to the left.


Remember Arizona in 2016 was basically a Lean R state, showing you how far Texas is from becoming a swing state
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2021, 12:18:12 PM »

Texas and Georgia aren't identical, but the logic behind Texas "not being there yet" is similar, made for the same reasons, and will probably be proven wrong sooner rather than later. The trendline in Texas is very clear, and while I'm not guessing it'll flip in 2024 (though I do think it'll be close), it would be very foolish of Republicans to take it for granted, since the massive swing in South Texas still wasn't anywhere near enough to offset the Democratic gains in the suburbs, and it's not clear that Republicans will keep their gains among rural Latinos, much less continue to improve dramatically (I don't think Starr county will swing another 55 points to the right in 2024.)
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Monstro Doesn't Say Anything Interesting
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« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2021, 02:04:28 PM »

What does swing state mean?

Do you mean when you think it'll swing to the Democrats?
Or do you mean when will it be competitive?

If the former, then probably 2028 - 2032

If the latter, then 2024

By the general definition of the term, when both Democratic and Republican candidates get roughly similar levels of support among voters.  Georgia and Arizona being the most recent examples.  

Then 2024 (even if Democrats don't win I expect the margin there to be competitive and for both sides to receive roughly similar levels of support among voters, probably less than a 5% margin)

Why rule it out entirely?

It's too early.  Also, there is a complicating factor with Republican gains in the Rio Grande Valley, and we don't yet know how much of an effect the recently-passed voter suppression measures will have on voter turnout among Democrats especially in the major urban centers like Houston and Dallas.  

I'm being cautious here given the unknowns.  

You're safely ruling out 2024 because it's too early and there's too many unknowns?

By that logic, then there's no point to this poll and everyone should vote "Not ever" because we don't know what Texas will look like in 4 years, 8 years, 12 years, 16 years, 20 years, etc.
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America Needs Kali
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« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2021, 09:38:34 PM »

What does swing state mean?

Do you mean when you think it'll swing to the Democrats?
Or do you mean when will it be competitive?

If the former, then probably 2028 - 2032

If the latter, then 2024

By the general definition of the term, when both Democratic and Republican candidates get roughly similar levels of support among voters.  Georgia and Arizona being the most recent examples.  

Then 2024 (even if Democrats don't win I expect the margin there to be competitive and for both sides to receive roughly similar levels of support among voters, probably less than a 5% margin)

Why rule it out entirely?

It's too early.  Also, there is a complicating factor with Republican gains in the Rio Grande Valley, and we don't yet know how much of an effect the recently-passed voter suppression measures will have on voter turnout among Democrats especially in the major urban centers like Houston and Dallas.  

I'm being cautious here given the unknowns.  

You're safely ruling out 2024 because it's too early and there's too many unknowns?

By that logic, then there's no point to this poll and everyone should vote "Not ever" because we don't know what Texas will look like in 4 years, 8 years, 12 years, 16 years, 20 years, etc.

I meant that I would like to see how the elections in 2022 and 2024 go so we can have a clearer picture on where Texas is likely headed.  I don't know yet how much of an impact any of these factors would have on our chances.  The next few elections should hopefully clear that up.  Sound reasonable to you?  


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CookieDamage
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« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2021, 11:37:17 PM »

Foolish to write off a state this early. Y'all have no idea how 2024 is gonna shake out. Texas could be within 2-4 points if not closer, which definitely places it in swingy territory.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2021, 12:58:42 AM »

I don't get how we can rule out 2024?  I was actually going to vote 2024.  It's clearly trending in one direction and now the margin is around 5 points.  I'd be surprised if Republicans win by more than 3 or 4 points in 2024.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2021, 02:19:29 AM »

I don't get how we can rule out 2024?  I was actually going to vote 2024.  It's clearly trending in one direction and now the margin is around 5 points.  I'd be surprised if Republicans win by more than 3 or 4 points in 2024.

Texas voted 10 points more Republican than the national vote in 2020



 
Foolish to write off a state this early. Y'all have no idea how 2024 is gonna shake out. Texas could be within 2-4 points if not closer, which definitely places it in swingy territory.

I define swing state as a state both parties have at the very least a 40% chance of carrying
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2021, 06:50:39 AM »

Texas will be the difference between about 320 and 360 electoral votes for the Democrat in 2024. It will be contested in 2024,

Around 2024 Texas may be close to the US as a whole in its political orientation as it becomes nearly a microcosm of America. It's hard to imagine Texas in that role, in view of its history, but that can happen. 
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Archaeo-Statism
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2021, 12:01:04 PM »

Depends on the candidates and the circumstances, but generally I lean toward 2032. Democrats need time to build a base with Hispanics and urban centers still have some growing to do (Houston, for instance, is only set to surpass Chicago as the third largest city in 2023). A change in governors might expedite things, because while Abbott has been able to hold together the business conservatives and the grassroots, a Governor Dan Patrick, Ken Paxton, or George P. Bush might not. Scandals like the Freeze are calling the Republican machine into question, and now it's up to the Democrats to put together winning coalitions of anti-corruption dissenters. Like I said, more campaigning for Hispanic issues. That'll be the master stroke in becoming competitive both statewide and presidentially. Looking at Sanders' performance in the primaries, building up the Texas Democrats' progressive wing could help.
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cwh2018
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2021, 12:12:11 PM »

Democrats probably won't win it in 2024 unless Biden walks the election like Clinton in '96.  I think there is a fairly good chance that the GOP wins the White House in 2024, which could mean that Texas is a tossup in 2028.  If Biden or Harris win the White House in 2024 then the GOP probably hold Texas in 2028 with 2032 the most likely time that Texas is a genuine tossup.  I would not rule out the GOP holding it in the next 3 or 4 elections though.

Couple of things to remember with Texas is that it is a fairly young state and it still has low voter turnout so things could change quite quickly.  It is also growing at a fair pace, meaning there could be as many as 3 million more votes for president in 8 years time.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2021, 01:32:47 PM »

Trump was the best-case scenario for Dems in a while ...

TX will swing back hard R in the next few cycles.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2021, 01:51:31 PM »

Democrats probably won't win it in 2024 unless Biden walks the election like Clinton in '96.  I think there is a fairly good chance that the GOP wins the White House in 2024, which could mean that Texas is a tossup in 2028.  If Biden or Harris win the White House in 2024 then the GOP probably hold Texas in 2028 with 2032 the most likely time that Texas is a genuine tossup.  I would not rule out the GOP holding it in the next 3 or 4 elections though.

Couple of things to remember with Texas is that it is a fairly young state and it still has low voter turnout so things could change quite quickly.  It is also growing at a fair pace, meaning there could be as many as 3 million more votes for president in 8 years time.

This part is crucial. Texas is booming which many of you guys don't seem to understand, at least in terms of what large, sustained growths mean for a state's political trajectory.
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Redban
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2021, 02:47:27 PM »

2028
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