When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

[Person Man]

I can see the next president carrying it, from whatever party they are from unless Biden doesn't run for reelection.

[patzer]

2024; didn't vote in the poll because I couldn't find the 2024 option!

If you simply extend past trends (averaging 2012-2016 and 2016-20) onto 2024, Texas is easily within the swing state column; I think there's a decent chance it votes left of North Carolina and Michigan even. The trend of Hispanic voters to back the incumbent president will help too; I'd predict that assuming Biden runs for reelection, he's got a good chance of picking up Texas.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2024; didn't vote in the poll because I couldn't find the 2024 option!

If you simply extend past trends (averaging 2012-2016 and 2016-20) onto 2024, Texas is easily within the swing state column; I think there's a decent chance it votes left of North Carolina and Michigan even. The trend of Hispanic voters to back the incumbent president will help too; I'd predict that assuming Biden runs for reelection, he's got a good chance of picking up Texas.

That isnt how trends work at all and the reason for the huge change from 2012 to 2016 is due to how much the GOP changed in that time period. I doubt their will be another change in the party similar to the one from 2012 to 2016

Re: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

 The 2020 Democrats needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 in order to flip and carry Texas. That margin was reached by 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama. He won nationally by +7.26 and carried 28 states with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia.

Texas, for the Democrats, is closer than some realize. It is matter of reaching the necessary numbers.

No, Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 9-10 points in order to carry Texas in 2020

[DS0816]

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Re: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

The 2020 Democrats needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 in order to flip and carry Texas. That margin was reached by 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama. He won nationally by +7.26 and carried 28 states with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia.

Texas, for the Democrats, is closer than some realize. It is matter of reaching the necessary numbers.

No, Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 9-10 points in order to carry Texas in 2020

No.

A U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 percentage points was needed for the 2020 Democrats to flip and carry Texas.

You can factor the amount of votes cast for U.S. President (over 150 million); the increments (over 1.5 milion) in raw-vote margin for each percentage point; and that raw-vote margin in Texas (just over 630,000), as a Republican hold, was lower than that raw-vote margin nationwide (over 7 million meaning, a raw-vote margin of +10.5 million nationally would have been enough and not so much a need for +13.5 million).

People here make the mistake of looking only at the percentage-points margin for where a given state finished. They do not refer to the order of the states—from the perspectives of the Republicans and the Democrats—for where each one ranked.

In U.S. presidential elections which especially switch the White House party, there tends to be a net gain of +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted in the direction of that pickup-winning party. So, if we get Election #01 won by Party A with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, and Election #02 is a pickup for Party B also with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, that would be a 10-point national shift resulting in a net gain of +10 states.

Prevailing Democrats are on a pattern of +21 or +22 states, in excess of their percentage-points margins in the U.S. Popular Vote, to determine the amount of states liable to get carried. For prevailing Republicans, it is +28. So, a winning Democrat by +5 would carry 26 or 27 states; a prevailing Republican by +5 would carry 33 states.

2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner Joe Biden, with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +4.45 and carriage of 25 states, needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5 to also flip [No. 26] North Carolina; +6 to also flip [No. 27] Florida; and +7 to also flip [No. 28] Texas.

It doesn’t take +9 percentage points, in the U.S. Popular Vote, for a winning Democrat to carry 28 states. A U.S. Popular Vote margin of +6 or +7 will get them to reach carriage of 28 states.

[OSR stands with Israel]

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Re: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

The 2020 Democrats needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 in order to flip and carry Texas. That margin was reached by 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama. He won nationally by +7.26 and carried 28 states with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia.

Texas, for the Democrats, is closer than some realize. It is matter of reaching the necessary numbers.

No, Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 9-10 points in order to carry Texas in 2020

In U.S. presidential elections which especially switch the White House party, there tends to be a net gain of +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted in the direction of that pickup-winning party. So, if we get Election #01 won by Party A with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, and Election #02 is a pickup for Party B also with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, that would be a 10-point national shift resulting in a net gain of +10 states.

This is extremely faulty logic and meets the correlation isnt causation fallacy

[patzer]

2024; didn't vote in the poll because I couldn't find the 2024 option!

If you simply extend past trends (averaging 2012-2016 and 2016-20) onto 2024, Texas is easily within the swing state column; I think there's a decent chance it votes left of North Carolina and Michigan even. The trend of Hispanic voters to back the incumbent president will help too; I'd predict that assuming Biden runs for reelection, he's got a good chance of picking up Texas.

That isnt how trends work at all and the reason for the huge change from 2012 to 2016 is due to how much the GOP changed in that time period. I doubt their will be another change in the party similar to the one from 2012 to 2016

I think the suburban trends are more likely to continue fairly fast, given the Republican Party’s doubling-down on Trumpism while Biden is inoffensive to suburban voters.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2024; didn't vote in the poll because I couldn't find the 2024 option!

If you simply extend past trends (averaging 2012-2016 and 2016-20) onto 2024, Texas is easily within the swing state column; I think there's a decent chance it votes left of North Carolina and Michigan even. The trend of Hispanic voters to back the incumbent president will help too; I'd predict that assuming Biden runs for reelection, he's got a good chance of picking up Texas.

That isnt how trends work at all and the reason for the huge change from 2012 to 2016 is due to how much the GOP changed in that time period. I doubt their will be another change in the party similar to the one from 2012 to 2016

I think the suburban trends are more likely to continue fairly fast, given the Republican Party’s doubling-down on Trumpism while Biden is inoffensive to suburban voters.

Most trends slow down in reelection bids and have in the past. just look at CO/VO in 2008 and 2012 and the Rust Belt in 2016 and 2020.

[DS0816]

…

Re: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

The 2020 Democrats needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 in order to flip and carry Texas. That margin was reached by 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama. He won nationally by +7.26 and carried 28 states with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia.

Texas, for the Democrats, is closer than some realize. It is matter of reaching the necessary numbers.

No, Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 9-10 points in order to carry Texas in 2020

In U.S. presidential elections which especially switch the White House party, there tends to be a net gain of +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted in the direction of that pickup-winning party. So, if we get Election #01 won by Party A with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, and Election #02 is a pickup for Party B also with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, that would be a 10-point national shift resulting in a net gain of +10 states.

This is extremely faulty logic and meets the correlation isnt causation fallacy

It is an electoral pattern. A structural one.

Since 1992, the average number of states carried by presidential-election winners have been 29 with the range between 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) and 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton).

Winning Republicans have been averaging 9 electoral votes per carried state. (For a Republican-aligned state, South Carolina has 9 electoral votes.)

Winning Democrats have been averaging 12 electoral votes per carried state. (For a Democratic-aligned state, Washington has 12 electoral votes.)

With the exception of 1992 Bill Clinton, every prevailing Democrat since 1960 John Kennedy carried +21 or +22 states in excess of their percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote.

The Republicans, since 1992, fit with +28 as their last two pickup winners—2000 George W. Bush and 2016 Donald Trump—did not win the U.S. Popular Vote. Had they done so, their percentage-points margin would have reached +2. A 2000 Bush followed 1996 Bob Dole’s U.S. Popular Vote margin of –8.52 by flipping +11 states. A 2016 Trump followed 2012 Mitt Romney’s U.S. Popular Vote margin of –3.86 and flipped +6 states (four which rank among the nation’s Top 10 populous). They both carried 30 states. (With re-election in 2004, Bush won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.46 and carried 31 states.)

[patzer]

Most trends slow down in reelection bids and have in the past. just look at CO/VO in 2008 and 2012 and the Rust Belt in 2016 and 2020.

Even if we extrapolate solely on the 2016-20 trend, Biden would only lose TX by 2% in 2024.
The trend for Hispanic voters to lean towards incumbents would easily bring him over the line.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Most trends slow down in reelection bids and have in the past. just look at CO/VO in 2008 and 2012 and the Rust Belt in 2016 and 2020.

Even if we extrapolate solely on the 2016-20 trend, Biden would only lose TX by 2% in 2024.
The trend for Hispanic voters to lean towards incumbents would easily bring him over the line.

No if we extrapolate solely on 2016-20 trend Biden would lose Texas by 4.5 points if the NPV margin stays the same

[Chips]

2028-2032. I see TX as Lean R for 2024.

[SWE]

Texas was more competitive in 2020 than Michigan and Wisconsin were in 2012, so it seems a little hasty to rule it out this early. I wouldn't have it as more than Lean R.