May 2021 Poll: Who will be the GOP nominee?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's nice to poll this semi regularly so we can track the thoughts of the forum over time.

Gun to your head: someone asks you who is the 2024 nominee.

[Real Texan Politics]

There’s two frontrunners, but it all depends on whether one of them runs or not. In fact I don’t even have to tell y’all who the two frontrunners are.

If it’s not one, it’ll be the other. And no, Haley and Pence have little to no chance at clinching the nomination; quote me on that in 3 years time.

[S019]

Noem

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Going to go with Rick Scott, despite the fact he gives me Senate "Lifer" vibes.
Why?

Because DeSantis has peaked too early (leaving him open to being softened up over the next few years) while most of the rest is either too inexperienced or are Trumps (and the Trump family is slowly losing relevance*). Or they have run already and flubbed (see: Rubio).

*=I don't think they'll become irrelevant but they won't hold enough clout to ultimately get the nomination again themselves.

[dw93]

Top 3 from most likely to least:

1. Ron DeSantis
2. Tim Scott
3. Donald Trump (though I still think it's unlikely even if possible)

[brucejoel99]

I'm sure that this is probably gonna seem like a hot take now, given the conventional wisdom of a Trump-less primary that seemingly appears to be developing around DeSantis, but I still say that it'll be Pence. It's still the case that most of the legitimate primary polling which has been conducted so far - that is, not CPAC propaganda "straw polls," the respondent pool for which was obviously more likely to include pro-insurrectionists than the broader at-large GOP primary voter pool - still points to him being the favorite in a Trump-less primary, meaning it's still the case that his path to the nomination is still a wide-open, inevitably crowded field giving his name-recognition & broad-enough acceptability the advantage. I'm still comfortable in my prediction that Pence will end up being to the 2024 Republicans at the end of the day what Biden was to the Democrats last year & what Romney was to the 2012 Republicans. Sure, nothing's to stop flavor-of-the-month candidates from inevitably rising & falling as happens every cycle, but there's just as easily nothing to stop them from inevitably destroying each other as happens every cycle while Pence just quietly floats his way to the nomination.

[Xing]

“Field” is the most likely answer, this far out.

[NYDem]

It's Trump if he runs. Absolute lock.

Anything beyond that you'll have to ask about again in at least 2 years.

[YE]

Donald Trump.

[NewYorkExpress]

I still think if Trump announces his intention to run now (or anytime before mid 2023) all fifty states will cancel their primaries/caucuses, and he'll be nominated unanimously at the GOP convention.

If Trump doesn't run for whatever reason, it'll be Trump Jr.

If not Trump Jr, than Pence.

[Crumpets]

Noem

Yeah, I think DeSantis will end up flaming out and someone like Noem will be in a good place to pick up those supporters. Plus I think it's very 2024 GOP to pick a woman to run against Biden so that they can try to label the woke crowd as hypocrites for not supporting a female candidate against an old white man.

Still, any specific candidate probably has <15% chance this far out.

[Wormless Gourd]

DeSantis based on early polling, getting second at CPAC behind Trump, volume of media coverage(especially on Fox) and that people have started flying "DeSantis 2024" flags already. You don't see this for any other candidate, except for Trump.
I will say Cruz is the most underrated candidate likely for the nomination.

[Pink Panther]

I think Trump will want the presidency back, and the base is extremely loyal to him. If it's not him, it's probably DeSantis. Noem feels too generic Trumpist and a fake, Pence, Haley, and Romney have too much beef with the Trump Base, and I doubt anyone else except maybe Scott could defeat DeSantis in a primary at the moment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rob DeSantis, no one wants Trump's back due to Insurrectionists

[Bootes Void]

I have no idea who the nominee is but the VP will be Tim Scott or would make a great VP.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm sure that this is probably gonna seem like a hot take now, given the conventional wisdom of a Trump-less primary that seemingly appears to be developing around DeSantis, but I still say that it'll be Pence. It's still the case that most of the legitimate primary polling which has been conducted so far - that is, not CPAC propaganda "straw polls," the respondent pool for which was obviously more likely to include pro-insurrectionists than the broader at-large GOP primary voter pool - still points to him being the favorite in a Trump-less primary, meaning it's still the case that his path to the nomination is still a wide-open, inevitably crowded field giving his name-recognition & broad-enough acceptability the advantage. I'm still comfortable in my prediction that Pence will end up being to the 2024 Republicans at the end of the day what Biden was to the Democrats last year & what Romney was to the 2012 Republicans. Sure, nothing's to stop flavor-of-the-month candidates from inevitably rising & falling as happens  every cycle, but there's just as easily nothing to stop them from inevitably destroying each other as happens every cycle while Pence just quietly floats his way to the convention.

I pretty much agree with this. IMO, DeSantis is peaking too early.

[SN2903]

I'm sure that this is probably gonna seem like a hot take now, given the conventional wisdom of a Trump-less primary that seemingly appears to be developing around DeSantis, but I still say that it'll be Pence. It's still the case that most of the legitimate primary polling which has been conducted so far - that is, not CPAC propaganda "straw polls," the respondent pool for which was obviously more likely to include pro-insurrectionists than the broader at-large GOP primary voter pool - still points to him being the favorite in a Trump-less primary, meaning it's still the case that his path to the nomination is still a wide-open, inevitably crowded field giving his name-recognition & broad-enough acceptability the advantage. I'm still comfortable in my prediction that Pence will end up being to the 2024 Republicans at the end of the day what Biden was to the Democrats last year & what Romney was to the 2012 Republicans. Sure, nothing's to stop flavor-of-the-month candidates from inevitably rising & falling as happens  every cycle, but there's just as easily nothing to stop them from inevitably destroying each other as happens every cycle while Pence just quietly floats his way to the convention.

I pretty much agree with this. IMO, DeSantis is peaking too early.

Is he though? He really hasn't peaked at all. He is pretty unknown outside of GOP activists and the state of Florida.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

good question

[RosettaStoned]

Mike Pence.

I don't think Trump will run because of his age and the baggage from his Presidency.  But Pence is still young enough (age 66-67 in 2024).

Pence is also in a position where he can draw Trumpers while steering clear of Trump's scandals.

Lastly - Pence is a solid guy to throw in there as a sacrificial lamb against a popular incumbent Biden. Pence is respectable enough to be a GOP President. But he's also not the future of the party, so a loss is still ok for the Republican brand.

Pence seems to fit perfectly

 Pence/Haley perhaps?

[Canis]

Rn I have a feeling it'll either be Desantis/Noem Desantis/Scott or Noem/Scott if Trump doesn't run I think Pence still has a shot at the nomination but I have a hard time seeing him beat Desantis or anyone endorsed by Trump.

[2016]

Noem

Yeah, I think DeSantis will end up flaming out and someone like Noem will be in a good place to pick up those supporters. Plus I think it's very 2024 GOP to pick a woman to run against Biden so that they can try to label the woke crowd as hypocrites for not supporting a female candidate against an old white man.

Still, any specific candidate probably has <15% chance this far out.

Ron DeSantis isn't Scott Walker. If Trump doesn't run in 2024 DeSantis will be the Nominee. And given that Democrats will run Harris either as Vice Presidential Candidate or as Presidential Candidate I do expect DeSantis to pick a Woman as VP. He did so with Nunez in Florida in 2018 and very likely 2022 as well.

[pbrower2a]

If not Trump, then the candidate most analogous to Barry Goldwater. The more that Democrats loathe this pol the more  Republicans will like the pol. It's Schadenfreude time in the GOP, the time in which liberals talk about emigrating if the Republican wins the nomination.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

At this point in time I think Trump will run and obviously win the primary.

[2016]

At this point in time I think Trump will run and obviously win the primary.

Trump will do what's best for him. If he thinks he can win the WH back he will run. If he thinks it's better to play Kingmaker he'll endorse someone like DeSantis who can win.

Bascially every week the Washington Cartell Democrats are moving more and more to the left. They are getting more progressive by the minute.

[Chips]

Trump is most likely.