DeSantis in 2024 or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Indulge the Hype

[BigVic]

Another election with massive polling error. I thought MI would flip too if DeSantis were to win GA, AZ and NV giving him a 312-226 EC victory.

[Frodo]

Can you give a run-down of the Biden administration's accomplishments?  Besides the stimulus package, was an infrastructure package passed?  What about the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, assuming that the For the People Act met its demise as it has in real life? 

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Can you give a rundown of the swing state margins? (inc. NM)

[Wormless Gourd]

Another election with massive polling error. I thought MI would flip too if DeSantis were to win GA, AZ and NV giving him a 312-226 EC victory.

Couple reasons why I didn't put MI as a DeSantis flip;
- Further R gains with MI non-college whites are a tad harder. They're more urban and more unionized.
- Republicans have to balance strong non-college white appeal with a rather strong suburban/college white performance in the state. Making up a reasonable amount of ground in the Grand Rapids metro, Oakland county, NW MI and atleast keeping a better margin in Ann Arbor wouldn't be easy.
- The lion's share of minority voters are black and not Asian or Hispanic, making the D margin more inflexible
- MI is the second least white state in the Midwest after IL and had the fastest decrease in white non-college share of voters '16-20(among the big three rust belt flips)


Despite all this, I still pegged Michigan as the closest state, +0.12% Biden.

Can you give a run-down of the Biden administration's accomplishments?  Besides the stimulus package, was an infrastructure package passed?  What about the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, assuming that the For the People Act met its demise as it has in real life?  

A toned down infrastructure package(<$2 trillion total) with some bipartisan compromises was passed early into his administration. Later pieces on child tax credits and time-limited, subsidized family leave were also passed, but other important promises reached an impasse or got filibustered.
 
John Lewis VRA does not get passed. Resultingly some states work aggressively to expand voting rights and accessibility. Courts hand down some occasionally brutal rulings pre-midterms. Republicans tried to exploit Biden's pushback on this leading up to 2022.

Military spending was reduced overall, taxes were increased on highest earners, measures to reduce consumer emissions were passed, some criminal justice reforms were passed, some important municipal bailouts were passed and some contentious home-buyer assistance programs were set up. Internal disagreements and Republican stonewalling led to some slow legislating. Some progressive voters became disenchanted with the admin but they were (mostly) warmed back up to Biden leading up to 2024.

Can you give a rundown of the swing state margins? (inc. NM)

Sure! There were a record number of <1% states(most since 2000), with most other close states  going to DeSantis, reflecting a continued national PV-battleground PV mismatch.

States under 1%:
Michigan +0.12% Biden
Georgia +0.24% DeSantis
Nevada +0.41% DeSantis
Nebraska 2nd +0.80% Biden
Pennsylvania +0.94% DeSantis(tipping point state)

States between 1-5%
Wisconsin +1.53% DeSantis
North Carolina +3.40% DeSantis
Arizona +3.45% DeSantis
New Hampshire +4.38% Biden
Minnesota + 4.54% Biden

States between 5-11%
Florida + 5.32% DeSantis
New Mexico +5.41% Biden
Maine statewide +6.05% Biden
Texas +8.66% DeSantis
Virginia +8.78% Biden
Ohio +9.83% DeSantis
Alaska +9.84% DeSantis
Maine 2nd +10.09% DeSantis
Colorado +10.88% Biden
Iowa +10.93% DeSantis

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

Who wins NC-GOV?

[Wormless Gourd]

Who wins NC-GOV?

Dan Forest got elected on DeSantis's coattails by a margin of 1.18% over Valerie Foushee.

[Frodo]

Something to think about -a Ron DeSantis victory in 2024 would be a clear indication that Trumpism sells to the American public (at least enough to ensure an electoral victory).  It just requires a more politically adroit messenger than its namesake. 

[Frodo]

Can you give a run-down of the Biden administration's accomplishments?  Besides the stimulus package, was an infrastructure package passed?  What about the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, assuming that the For the People Act met its demise as it has in real life?  

A toned down infrastructure package(<$2 trillion total) with some bipartisan compromises was passed early into his administration. Later pieces on child tax credits and time-limited, subsidized family leave were also passed, but other important promises reached an impasse or got filibustered.
 
John Lewis VRA does not get passed. Resultingly some states work aggressively to expand voting rights and accessibility. Courts hand down some occasionally brutal rulings pre-midterms. Republicans tried to exploit Biden's pushback on this leading up to 2022.

Military spending was reduced overall, taxes were increased on highest earners, measures to reduce consumer emissions were passed, some criminal justice reforms were passed, some important municipal bailouts were passed and some contentious home-buyer assistance programs were set up. Internal disagreements and Republican stonewalling led to some slow legislating. Some progressive voters became disenchanted with the admin but they were (mostly) warmed back up to Biden leading up to 2024.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that once there is bipartisan agreement on the 'traditional infrastructure' bill and it is signed into law, the plan for the human infrastructure portion is supposed to be passed via reconciliation.  Therefore the filibuster shouldn't be a factor.

Who wins NC-GOV?

Dan Forest got elected on DeSantis's coattails by a margin of 1.18% over Valerie Foushee.

How about Georgia?  Does Stacey Abrams finally become the first black female governor of this deep South state?

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the margins in the Senate races?

[Wormless Gourd]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that once there is bipartisan agreement on the 'traditional infrastructure' bill and it is signed into law, the plan for the human infrastructure portion is supposed to be passed via reconciliation.  Therefore the filibuster shouldn't be a factor.

The "other important promises" were meant to include campaign promises that ultimately didn't get implemented, either as part of the stimulus bill or otherwise, like failures to agree on a minimum wage increase. Sorry for the poor wording lol.

How about Georgia?  Does Stacey Abrams finally become the first black female governor of this deep South state?

Governor Kemp ends up brushing aside his primary challenger(s) and his approval rating by 2022 floats back up to pre-covid >50%. Sub-2018 turnout, new voting laws and an R wave year keeps Kemp in office by a margin of 2.47% even as topline Warnock gets reelected by 0.38%. Abrams had slight but critical underperformances with rural voters and white suburbanites compared to Warnock. However, she does not rule out 2026, when there'll be an open Governors seat.

What are the margins in the Senate races?

Flips:
Manchin unseated by an 11.67% margin by Patrick Morissey
Brown unseated by an 3.84% margin by Jane Timken
Tester unseated by an 2.41% margin by Tim Fox
Rosen unseated by an 1.01% margin by Heidi Gansert
Sinema unseated by an 0.60% margin by Mark Brnovich

Democrats in DeSantis-won states:
Casey Jr. reelected by 5.70% over Jim Christiana
Baldwin reelected by 4.58% over Mike Gallagher

Select close races:
Cruz reelected by 5.04% over Scott Kelly
Stabenow reelected by 3.95% over Patrick Colbeck

[2016]

What will the DeSantis Administration look like.

[Tekken_Guy]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that once there is bipartisan agreement on the 'traditional infrastructure' bill and it is signed into law, the plan for the human infrastructure portion is supposed to be passed via reconciliation.  Therefore the filibuster shouldn't be a factor.

The "other important promises" were meant to include campaign promises that ultimately didn't get implemented, either as part of the stimulus bill or otherwise, like failures to agree on a minimum wage increase. Sorry for the poor wording lol.

How about Georgia?  Does Stacey Abrams finally become the first black female governor of this deep South state?

Governor Kemp ends up brushing aside his primary challenger(s) and his approval rating by 2022 floats back up to pre-covid >50%. Sub-2018 turnout, new voting laws and an R wave year keeps Kemp in office by a margin of 2.47% even as topline Warnock gets reelected by 0.38%. Abrams had slight but critical underperformances with rural voters and white suburbanites compared to Warnock. However, she does not rule out 2026, when there'll be an open Governors seat.

What are the margins in the Senate races?

Flips:
Manchin unseated by an 11.67% margin by Patrick Morissey
Brown unseated by an 3.84% margin by Jane Timken
Tester unseated by an 2.41% margin by Tim Fox
Rosen unseated by an 1.01% margin by Heidi Gansert
Sinema unseated by an 0.60% margin by Mark Brnovich

Democrats in DeSantis-won states:
Casey Jr. reelected by 5.70% over Jim Christiana
Baldwin reelected by 4.58% over Mike Gallagher

Select close races:
Cruz reelected by 5.04% over Scott Kelly
Stabenow reelected by 3.95% over Patrick Colbeck

Wait, Timken didn’t win Portman’s seat?

[Wormless Gourd]

What will the DeSantis Administration look like.

That may come in a future thread following up this timeline with a 55-45 Republican Senate and DeSantis as president. DeSantis may breath new life into the national GOP or become the third one-term president in a row, signaling that political instability in the US may be rising.

Wait, Timken didn’t win Portman’s seat?

Nope, but Josh Mandel did...

[Tekken_Guy]

What was Rick Scott’s margin?

[Wormless Gourd]

What was Rick Scott’s margin?

Scott underperforms DeSantis, still winning by 2.87% over Ted Deutch.

[Tekken_Guy]

What was Rick Scott’s margin?

Scott underperforms DeSantis, still winning by 2.87% over Ted Deutch.

Well that’s his biggest win ever.

How did NC-GOV go?

[Wormless Gourd]

2020-2024 State Swing Map

The country as a whole swings a little under 3 points to the right(2.99%), the largest swing between elections since 2008-2012, but with much fewer variations between state swings then in previous elections.

DeSantis improved the most in Utah, New Mexico and California. In Utah, an-about-as-expected reversion among Mormons to the Republican candidate had it shift over 5 points to the President-elect. DeSantis has a performance above both of Trump's but just below of McCain's. In New Mexico and California, Hispanic shifts and some suburban reversion consistent with other Western states had them shift more red then the nation at large.

Biden, despite his loss, saw small improvements in Hawaii, Alaska, Mississippi, North Dakota and Washington DC. Alaska was decided by under 10% for the first time since 1992 and Hawaii had the biggest swing away from the GOP, at about 1.8%. Filipinos were an increased share among voters in both states, and the group had swung away from the GOP to reelect President Biden, making both outlying states bluer. Swings in DC and MS were due to some consolidated black support by Biden, while ND got less then a point bluer with the rapid growth of the state catching up with the demographics of its voters, particularly in bringing in more black residents to the homogenous state.

I may do some state-by-state posts.

Well that’s his biggest win ever.

How did NC-GOV go?

Makes his close victories all the more painful when he survives into the era of a redder Florida, though the once Medicare-defrauding CEO doesn't perform as well as DeSantis in SE Florida.

And:

Dan Forest got elected on DeSantis's coattails by a margin of 1.18% over Valerie Foushee.

Forest runs the most conservative campaign for NC governor in recent memory, including advocating abolishment of the state income tax, running to the right of DeSantis on immigration and having deeply conservative views on abortion and LGBT-relevant issues. In the end he's still carried over the finish line by DeSantis's coattails as the NC state legislature prepares to push through a volley of long-awaited conservative legislation.

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

What happens to Mark Robinson and Josh Stein?

[Wormless Gourd]

What happens to Mark Robinson and Josh Stein?

Stein reelected by 3.50% over Holly Grange, a 3.25% increase from his 2020 margin. He made the decision to not seek the Governorship office in 2024 after expressing interest in the office. Popular actions taken while AG increased his standing with voters across the board.

Robinson reelected by 1.46% over Erica Smith, a 1.81% decrease from his 2020 margin. Robinson's past remarks were increasingly salient among more voters via ads, but ultimately did not cost him reelection when he was seen as among the most vulnerable of incumbent state row officers.

In other state row offices, Elaine Marshall retired, and the SOS office flipped to Republican E. C. Sykes, defeating Sydney Batch by 2.52%. At the same time, the Commissioner of Labor office flipped to Democrat Jessica Holmes, defeating incumbent Josh Dobson by 3.08%. Thus the Council of State remained 6-4 Republican

[Tekken_Guy]

What about the PA Row offices?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is well-written and surprisingly realistic.

Bye American democracy, nice while it lasted.

[Wormless Gourd]

This is well-written and surprisingly realistic.

Bye American democracy, nice while it lasted.

Thank you! The situation of the courts and the GOP trifecta will have far-reaching effects for decades to come.
I tried to do a lot of research while making this, so I'm glad people enjoyed it.

What about the PA Row offices?

Shapiro won the Governorship in '22, defeating Lou Barletta by 3.89%. Brian Sims was his running mate for Lt. Governor.
The open AG race in '24 was won by Todd Stephens by 0.28% over Stephen Zappala. Lucas M. Miller had been fulfilling the role of AG after Shapiro became governor.
Treasurer Garrity and Auditor Defoor were reelected in '24 by margins of 3.03% and 2.70% respectively over their Democratic challengers.

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

So how screwed am I as a trans person who presumably is still living in North Carolina in this universe?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So how screwed am I as a trans person who presumably is still living in North Carolina in this universe?

'Canadian Department of Immigration Services, how may I help you?'

[Tekken_Guy]

Did any U.S. Senators retire this cycle?