Hot take: Texas is Likely R in 2024

[DzSider]

Those are indeed very valid and reasonable points (Especially the one that suggests that Ds only carry Texas in 2008 (D+7) types of landslides (Since the state is around R+10 relative to the nation).

But I disagree with the assumption that the speed of D trends in the Suburban counties (At least the sunbelt ones) are subject to whether or not theres a backlash againts an R Incumbent but rather whether or not the candidate that it's a the top of the ticket can temporarily slow them down or due to another very unique circumstance.

                         Margin relative to the Nation

                 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020
    Collins     -49     -41     -33      -35     -19       -9
                              +8      +8        -2     +16     +10

                 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020
Williamson     -41     -29     -20      -25     -12       -3
                              +12      +9        -5     +13     +9

As you can see the trend is pretty similar accross every election however when theres a candidate with what seems a unique appeal (Romney 2012) the trends temporarily halt, but at the next election trend twice as hard (Maybe that's why New England saw a big swing towards Biden? A reversal to the mean?).

Of course I could be very wrong on this and I could be seeing the wrong pattern here but this seems what the date indicates.

[DzSider]

Those are indeed very valid and reasonable points (Especially the one that suggests that Ds only carry Texas in 2008 (D+7) types of landslides (Since the state is around R+10 relative to the nation).

But I disagree with the assumption that the speed of D trends in the Suburban counties (At least the sunbelt ones) are subject to whether or not theres a backlash againts an incumbent party but rather whether or not the candidate that it's a the top of the ticket can temporarily slow them down or due to another very unique circumstance.

                          Margin relative to the Nation

                  2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020
     Collins     -49     -41     -33      -35     -19       -9
                               +8      +8        -2     +16     +10

                  2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020
Williamson     -41     -29     -20      -25     -12       -3
                               +12      +9        -5     +13     +9

As you can see the trend is pretty similar accross every election however when theres a candidate with what seems a unique appeal (Romney 2012) the trends temporarily halt, but at the next election trend twice as hard (Maybe that's why New England saw a big swing towards Biden? A reversal to the mean?).

Of course I could be very wrong on this and I could be seeing the wrong pattern here but this seems what the date indicates.

Well 2012 is the only time that a Dem reelection bid this century and the number one point I am making is that trends usually slow down in a presidents reelection bid. 2004 and 2020 had Republicans in the White House and 2000, 2008, 2016 were open elections which are the most prone to huge variations.

As for 2000-2004 overall trend in Texas how much of it is the Nader factor being gone in 2004 cause I think Bush won by a larger marin in 2000 but got a higher % of the vote in Texas in 2004. Texas overall really didnt trend much democratic at all from 2000-2012 if you add in the Nader factor into this.


2000: Bush beat Gore+Nader in Texas by 19.17 points and lost by 0.5 points in the popular vote meaning Texas voted around 19.67 points more Republican the nation


2012: Romney beat Obama in Texas by 15.78 points and lost by 3.9 points nationally meaning Texas voted around 19.68 points more Republican than the nation.

True, given where Nader performed the best he probably took a lot of the vote from Gore but if you give Gore his share of the Vote the national margin gets bigger as well so the trend stays around the same:

Collin (If you give Gore Nader's share of the vote)
D 26 (-47)
R 73

National (If you give Gore Nader share of the vote)
D 51 +3
R 48

Trend: (Without Nader) -50
Trend: With Nader -49

And yeah, the trends in a non-incumbent year are slightly bigger at the state level but sunbelt suburban counties ones don't really differ that much (At least as far as I can see)

(Average state trend)
2020: 2%
2016: 5%
2012: 3%
2008: 5%
2004: 4%
2000: 5%

[DzSider]

Not that hot of a take, especially since the TX-06 primary.

1. True, but that doesn't seem to be the case in Texas. The statewide trend seemed to stall because of a new trend in South Texas. The suburbs still swung massively to Biden, and there's no sign that this trend will reverse itself. The fact that trends can slow down doesn't mean that they will, and the CO/VA example isn't as strong as you think, since both states trended quite a bit more Democratic later on.

2. The PV is a flawed metric, since Democrats have consistently had an advantage in the PV recently. An election in which the PV is tied is an election that the Republican is winning easily. A 7-point win for the Democrats certainly isn't out of the question for 2024. Georgia voted 4 points right of the nation in 2020, and that doesn't mean it's still a "Republican-leaning state."

3. As I've said in other threads, the trend was strongest among rural Latino voters. Places like Bexar trended Democratic. While Republicans can get more votes out of the RGV, that's not going to offset gains Democrats make in the suburbs (a trend that's been happening for several cycles now.) If Republicans can't stall the trends in the suburbs, they need urban Latinos to trend their way as well to offset that. Rural white counties in Texas are mostly maxed out for Republicans.

I'd go with Lean R for now. While Texas isn't going to be an easy state for Democrats to flip, Republicans can't afford to get cocky about this state. The ramifications of them losing Texas would be enormous, and they're better off taking it seriously as a competitive state that could flip.

If you look at precint data (The NYT precinct map is really useful here) you'll notice that Urban precincts in San Antonio heavily populated by Latinos swung R quite a bit (Not by as much as the rural ones but in Houston they almost did) , it's just that the white areas of San Antonio kinda overwhelmed their swing.