Hot take: Texas is Likely R in 2024
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May 07, 2021, 05:39:16 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Hot take: Texas is Likely R in 2024
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Author Topic: Hot take: Texas is Likely R in 2024  (Read 769 times)
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #25 on: May 04, 2021, 12:46:37 PM »

We must remember that 2022 it's unlikely that Covid will be Eradicated, but by 2024 it probably will, so even if Rs take the H, D's still are very favored to win the Election and if Covid is over, D's can win TX next Election cycles
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SN2903
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« Reply #26 on: May 04, 2021, 01:07:36 PM »
« Edited: May 04, 2021, 01:15:55 PM by SN2903 »

DeSantis will win Texas by 8 to 10%.
Trump would win it by 7-8%.
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DzSider
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« Reply #27 on: May 04, 2021, 01:18:01 PM »

Not that hot of a take, especially since the TX-06 primary.

1. True, but that doesn't seem to be the case in Texas. The statewide trend seemed to stall because of a new trend in South Texas. The suburbs still swung massively to Biden, and there's no sign that this trend will reverse itself. The fact that trends can slow down doesn't mean that they will, and the CO/VA example isn't as strong as you think, since both states trended quite a bit more Democratic later on.

2. The PV is a flawed metric, since Democrats have consistently had an advantage in the PV recently. An election in which the PV is tied is an election that the Republican is winning easily. A 7-point win for the Democrats certainly isn't out of the question for 2024. Georgia voted 4 points right of the nation in 2020, and that doesn't mean it's still a "Republican-leaning state."

3. As I've said in other threads, the trend was strongest among rural Latino voters. Places like Bexar trended Democratic. While Republicans can get more votes out of the RGV, that's not going to offset gains Democrats make in the suburbs (a trend that's been happening for several cycles now.) If Republicans can't stall the trends in the suburbs, they need urban Latinos to trend their way as well to offset that. Rural white counties in Texas are mostly maxed out for Republicans.

I'd go with Lean R for now. While Texas isn't going to be an easy state for Democrats to flip, Republicans can't afford to get cocky about this state. The ramifications of them losing Texas would be enormous, and they're better off taking it seriously as a competitive state that could flip.

If you look at precint data (The NYT precinct map is really useful here) you'll notice that Urban precincts in San Antonio heavily populated by Latinos swung R quite a bit (Not by as much as the rural ones but in Houston they almost did) , it's just that the white areas of San Antonio kinda overwhelmed their swing.
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #28 on: May 05, 2021, 12:05:47 AM »

If Trump had won the 2020 election, I would have given Democrats the edge in the state for 2024. There was a countercyclical swing against Republicans with suburbanites. Trump winning would have given Democrats four more years to mobilize that demographic. Now I expect more static and backwards swings. Texas hasn't been kind to incumbent Democratic presidents.
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Ron DeSantis enthusiast
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« Reply #29 on: May 05, 2021, 02:02:50 AM »

I also think Texas is Likely R, Cornyn still won by double digits last year, Trump was too toxic for Texas, it was the problem.
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I'm Glad Truman Can't See What Barton County Has Become
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« Reply #30 on: May 05, 2021, 02:01:45 PM »

Not a hot take, it was Likely R in 2020 too. Thanks to polling mirages, before the election, it looked like it would be the only Likely R state.
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