Who wins with this map?

[Spark]

[Flo 2.0]

I think with Arizona and Georgia going for the Republicans it's going to also result in Wisconsin voting for that ticket as well -- but I think Pennsylvania and Michigan should still vote for Harris. Pretty narrow 281-257 win.

[EastwoodS]

Stop trying to make North Bluelina happen Gretchen, ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

[Chips]

I think with Arizona and Georgia going for the Republicans it's going to also result in Wisconsin voting for that ticket as well -- but I think Pennsylvania and Michigan should still vote for Harris. Pretty narrow 281-257 win.

[DS0816]

If it is Election 2024, with the incumbent White House party the Democratic Party, the winners are Team Blue.

A Republican (or a Democratic) presidential pickup winner is not going to lose anything the party carried in the previous election which they had lost.

[Numberbit]

With this coalition, I think Wisconsin goes Republican and Michigan goes Democratic.

So it all comes down to Pennsylvania.

Gun to my head, I'll say DeSantis wins.

[Xing]

Trend deniers.

[Heitmex]

It seems like we see a partial reversal of 2020 trends, with suburban voters swinging towards the Republicans (hence why Arizona and Georgia flip and Texas remains likely). But on the other hand some 2020 trends still remain, especially in the Driftless Area. North Carolina flips because of increased turnout the African American vote(?) and that's the same reason why Mississippi and South Carolina are likely instead of safe. Hispanics swing Republican as well.

Wisconsin probably flips to the GOP (following a similar swing to Iowa going from likely to safe) and Michigan stays Democratic because of increased African American vote in Detroit. Pennsylvania would be a complete tossup and it probably depends how well Biden does in the years leading to the election.

[dw93]

Harris, but by a hair. I think PA and MI stick with the Democrats while WI narrowly goes Republican.

[Neptunium]

Pure tossup, would pick R win if I need to choose.

Since I expect Georgia would be bluer than PA and WI, but since NC flip, so actually I have no idea which side would win...

[beesley]

Strange map.

[NewYorkExpress]

I can't think of a scenario where both Georgia and North Carolina flip, to begin with.

As for your map, Harris barely wins Michigan (recount, and it's very possible a right-wing Supreme Court declares DeSantis the winner there anyways), while DeSantis wins Wisconsin. DeSantis also wins Pennsylvania, again in a recount.

Accounting for redistricting, the end result is a very narrow DeSantis victory (plus or minus Michigan).

[Devils30]

Unless trends completely change, get used to GA > NC...it's permanent.