How would Obama do if he ran in 2004

[Jeminye511]

We all know what happened in the election of 2004. I’m curious to hear your thoughts on if Obama (then a state senator) could’ve defeated bush if he were to run four years early

[McGarnagle]

I remember seeing his 2004 DNC speech on live TV as it happened, and after he finished me and my mother turned to each other and said "That man is going to be President one day". We thought it would maybe be in 2012 or 2016 or 2020 - but not as early as 2008.

If he had run and somehow gotten the nomination in 2004, he probably wouldn't win the election but he'd do well in the upper Midwest - but still would probably fall just short in Ohio and Florida though.

Being a state Senator and a U.S. Senator are very different in terms of political optics. Obama faced criticism for being inexperienced in 2008, still being a first term U.S. Senator. Those criticisms would have been amplified heavily if he had been running as merely a state Senator. In addition, Bush was not as widely seen as a failure yet - Bush's legacy of failure and Clinton's vote for the 2002 Iraq War authorization gave Obama the opening he needed in 2008.

There'd be a sense that "This guy is a great speaker and inspires lots of people, but he's not ready yet - maybe he'll win if he runs again in eight or twelve years."

[Bootes Void]

He would lose badly, an inexperienced person like him would get demolished. Bush would probably come to 400EVs here

[tjstarling]

We underweight how much economic collapse helped some/many corners of this country choose economic concerns over their racial biases. Without that, I’m not sure a black president was possible in 2008.

[Chips]

2004-IA+PA, NH, ME-02. 305-233 Bush.