DCUS
Rookie
Posts: 71
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« on: May 03, 2021, 05:58:14 PM » |
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« edited: May 05, 2021, 01:16:58 PM by DCUS »
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When there are about 10 swing states (even 20 in the pre-polarization era), calling elections with 90% certainty is prone to error. Just mathematically, the chance of a 90% chance happening 10 times is only about 35%. The pundits themselves can say "I'm almost certain that Biden will win Pennsylvania" and save the embarassment of a wrong call. Unexpected votes are sometimes found, as when the NYT needle in Georgia was at >90% Trump.
So Arizona was called too quickly. The states called too late were Pennsylvania and Alaska. Nevada, I can forgive, because of the embarassingly slow counting.
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