Do you think the network's messed up by calling Arizona too early?
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May 07, 2021, 04:36:45 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Do you think the network's messed up by calling Arizona too early?
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Author Topic: Do you think the network's messed up by calling Arizona too early?  (Read 729 times)
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« on: April 30, 2021, 05:27:15 PM »

I think Fox/AP made a mistake by calling Arizona but narrowly. avoided embarrassment. What do you think?
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President No-I'm-The President
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« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2021, 06:37:41 PM »

Yes, because if they didn't, we would know the winner earlier and everybody would call Nevada.
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McGarnagle's End Times Cavalcade
SomethingPolitical
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« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2021, 07:11:10 PM »

No because they were right

But just to be on the side of caution perhaps they ought to way slightly longer next time to avoid some of the fuss
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Pink Panther
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2021, 07:16:03 PM »

Clearly yes. I thought it was known how a lot of likely Trump voters still needed to be counted. You could also see this as the Trump campaign were much more enthusiastic on Arizona than Michigan or Wisconsin, since he knew he had a better chance in Arizona at that point.
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Georgia Democrat in 2021
mollybecky
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« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2021, 07:55:23 AM »

I don't think it was any worse than the networks holding off on a Pennsylvania call for four days--when it was clearly apparent by Wednesday that the early vote for Biden was massive and it was a matter of time that he would overtake Trump.
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Single Issue Pro-Immigration Voter
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« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2021, 06:28:46 PM »

No because they were right
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cringenat
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« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2021, 06:31:07 PM »

"Maricopa incoming" still makes me sweat so yes.
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LVScreenssuck
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« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2021, 08:08:11 PM »

No

They were wrong to hold the obvious call in PA. Sitting around and waiting 4 days to make a call does allot more undermine confidence than calling at 90% instead of 99% certainty.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2021, 08:18:13 PM »

No

They were wrong to hold the obvious call in PA. Sitting around and waiting 4 days to make a call does allot more undermine confidence than calling at 90% instead of 99% certainty.

Calling PA for Biden while Trump was still leading is conspiracy theory kerosene.  They called it as soon as Biden went ahead, IIRC 
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2021, 08:38:25 PM »

No

They were wrong to hold the obvious call in PA. Sitting around and waiting 4 days to make a call does allot more undermine confidence than calling at 90% instead of 99% certainty.

Calling PA for Biden while Trump was still leading is conspiracy theory kerosene.  They called it as soon as Biden went ahead, IIRC 

Nah, Biden was already ahead for at least a day. But the real malpractice was holding Nevada out so long.
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Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2021, 08:47:10 PM »

Fox did nothing wrong with the timing of the Arizona call, but so did other forecasters.
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dw93
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« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2021, 12:55:12 PM »

Yes, but they should've called Nevada sooner. I think every other state was called at the right time.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2021, 04:44:59 PM »

Yes as most of the outstanding votes were clearly favoring Trump and while most modeling suggested Biden would probably win it, Trump still had a decent shot at time called.  You only call a state if almost certain they will win and that point it was still very possible for Trump.  Yes they were right in end, but considering how close it was, wouldn't have had to be too much off for Trump to win it.  Now off course in end wouldn't have mattered as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were enough to put Biden over 270 and he won all three of those by bigger margins than Arizona.  Georgia was bigger in raw votes, but smaller in percentage difference. 
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2021, 04:48:52 PM »

Yes, 100%.
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jrk26
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2021, 04:50:26 PM »

No

They were wrong to hold the obvious call in PA. Sitting around and waiting 4 days to make a call does allot more undermine confidence than calling at 90% instead of 99% certainty.

Calling PA for Biden while Trump was still leading is conspiracy theory kerosene.  They called it as soon as Biden went ahead, IIRC 

They waited until he was 0.5% ahead, actually.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2021, 09:15:27 AM »

No

FOX/AP did the right thing

It gave us hope when things were looking bad on election night. If anything, the other networks should be shamed for waiting too long to call PA and NV. Every day that passed only fueled the claims of fraud that led to Jan 6
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Monstro Doesn't Say Anything Interesting
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« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2021, 12:46:12 PM »
« Edited: May 04, 2021, 07:56:36 PM by Monstro Doesn't Say Anything Interesting »

No more than the networks calling Georgia for Clinton as soon as the polls closed in 1992 (The final margin was 0.6%)

I honestly think the "controversy" behind this call is ridiculous & overblown to where we're still litigating it 6 months later. If one of the candidates wasn't a egomaniac who'd cry about any little thing that would give the impression he actually lost, I feel this wouldn't be as "scandalous".

Besides, I'm more upset the networks sat on Nevada & Pennsylvania for so long.
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DCUS
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« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2021, 05:58:14 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2021, 01:16:58 PM by DCUS »

When there are about 10 swing states (even 20 in the pre-polarization era), calling elections with 90% certainty is prone to error. Just mathematically, the chance of a 90% chance happening 10 times is only about 35%. The pundits themselves can say "I'm almost certain that Biden will win Pennsylvania" and save the embarassment of a wrong call. Unexpected votes are sometimes found, as when the NYT needle in Georgia was at >90% Trump.

So Arizona was called too quickly. The states called too late were Pennsylvania and Alaska. Nevada, I can forgive, because of the embarassingly slow counting.
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emotional hardcore
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« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2021, 06:58:47 PM »

"Did the networks mess up by calling a state correctly?"

No.
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morgieb
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2021, 06:37:59 PM »

Maybe, but I hate to think what would've happened if it wasn't called so early!
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Pericles
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« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2021, 06:45:36 PM »

Yes. They were clearly overconfident about the result given its closeness. This is similar to the polls, we don't say the polls did great because they called Biden winning the election, they were less accurate than 2016 despite calling that election wrong.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2021, 08:09:08 PM »

It was absurd how early Arizona was called given how close the final margin was and how uncertain the ballots were to predict later on.  If you look on YouTube at interviews the Fox guys gave on election night they basically were saying Biden was going to easily win, it would narrow but nowhere near what Trump needed.  That was all wrong and demonstrates that their call was premature, even if it was ultimately right.  IIRC they took a lot longer to call Minnesota which ended up not even being close.
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emotional hardcore
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« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2021, 10:23:49 PM »

It was absurd how early Arizona was called given how close the final margin was and how uncertain the ballots were to predict later on.  If you look on YouTube at interviews the Fox guys gave on election night they basically were saying Biden was going to easily win, it would narrow but nowhere near what Trump needed.  That was all wrong and demonstrates that their call was premature, even if it was ultimately right.  IIRC they took a lot longer to call Minnesota which ended up not even being close.
I think what's often overlooked is that Fox and the AP were using a different set of data than the other networks. They were looking at the full precinct reporting for Arizona, and doubled, tripled and quadrupled down on their call when asked if they would retract it as it kept coming in because they figured there wasn't enough heavily Republican precincts in Maricopa left to flip it. The other networks were just looking at county results. So while it might've seemed bold, there was a science behind it.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2021, 10:05:56 AM »

It exposes the "models" they use to project elections to be very flawed and not as scientific as they purport. I remember over the night North Carolina went from 80%+ Biden on the NYT needle to Trump eventually. You shouldn't see swings like that with an accurate sound system.

Oh, and remember that they called Arizona before Florida, which was clearly going to go to Trump with 90% in. TDS got in the way of some of these calls.
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EJ24
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2021, 11:57:18 AM »

No.

They called the state for Biden, and he won the state.
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