Realistically, how much better could Biden/Trump have done

[Motorcity]

At the end of the day, the final results reflected the polls since 2017. The only states that could have gone with way were MI,WI,PA,NC,AZ,GA,FL and NV

Baring something crazy, what is the best Joe Biden or Donald Trump could have done?

I think Biden could have won NC with a little more effort. I think Florida is a reach tbh

I think Trump could have repeated his 2016 map and flipped Nevada

Thoughts

[redjohn]

Turnout being as high as it was, there's pretty little that could've been done to swing any states in my opinion. Were there really an additional 21k voters in WI who would've gotten out and voted for Trump if he'd rallied in the suburbs last time? Were there really an additional 74,483 people in NC who would've been persuaded to both vote and to vote for Biden if he'd booked more ads there? Highly doubtful.

[Pericles]

Even with the stable polling, Biden's lead shrunk by about 2 points from its peak when Trump caught Covid. However a lot of people voted around that time so it's not as simple as having Trump get hospitalized right before the election. Maybe if he gets hit by a really bad news cycle later in October, the undecideds could have been better for Biden and NC would have flipped. And a better Biden campaign probably could have flipped NC but TX and FL were very tough. Trump's approval rating was also very stable and turns out to have been higher than expected, plus Biden increased his favorability through the general election to positive territory, so it's hard to see him doing much better. Which is depressing since Trump came within 0.6% of re-election.

I suppose a 6% PV win with Biden +2% in the tipping point state would have been a pretty good result, if that translates into the exact same swing down-ballot that's at most 230 House seats, 51 Senate seats, and with redistricting the only changes are that Democrats get a trifecta in MN and Republicans probably don't get one in NH. Even if NC Senate had flipped though, the Senate would still have been decided by GA runoffs and so in the days after the election Republicans would still probably be seen as the favorites to hold the Senate. So it's hard to get a result that has feels like a blue wave at the time.

[junior chįmp]

If one understands economic fundamentals...its really a miracle that Trump lost in 2020. The amount of fiscal spending done in 2020 is unlike anything seen in American history: Stimulus checks, PPP loans, SBA loans, generous unemployment benefits boosted income 5.8% y.o.y in 2020 which makes the 2020 COVID recession the first recession in which incomes grew substantially rather than declined or stagnated. The last time income growth was that high was during the 2000 elections in which Bush barely beat Gore but there wasnt even an incumbent that year. Realistically, any normal inoffensive Republican should of won in 2020 given the amount of spending to juice the economy.

[McGarnagle]

If there was a scandal that was able to sufficiently dent Biden, or if a second stimulus check had been delivered in a timely manner rather than being block by McConnell, Trump might have held on to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia and won a second term.

If Biden had been slightly more popular, or if more people had seen through Trump as the unfit, malicious, lazy, poor excuse for a "leader" that he was, Biden might have won North Carolina or Florida.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump circa Valentine's Day: "I am extending and escalating the existing travel ban on China.  Fellow Americans, to protect each and every one of you from the ravages of this deadly disease so irresponsibly spread by the government of China.  From this day forward, no international flights will land in the United States of America for the next year."

Markets would crash and he would be denounced as crazy for a month or two, but then he would cruise to a mid-20th century style double digit PV win. 

[Hope For A New Era]

The big own-goal for Democrats was:

1. Allowing "defund the police" to become a common phrase and ignoring the Republican "socialism" attacks

2. Not doing in-person canvassing


If those two things had not happened, I think the results would have been closer to the polls. Maybe Biden +6 in the popular vote, maybe a North Carolina win.

[EJ24]

I thought Biden underperformed in Florida and Texas, so he probably could have improved there.

I never thought Trump was winning Minnesota, but I did think it would be a bit more like Wisconsin. Biden won comfortably.

[Motorcity]

If one understands economic fundamentals...its really a miracle that Trump lost in 2020. The amount of fiscal spending done in 2020 is unlike anything seen in American history: Stimulus checks, PPP loans, SBA loans, generous unemployment benefits boosted income 5.8% y.o.y in 2020 which makes the 2020 COVID recession the first recession in which incomes grew substantially rather than declined or stagnated. The last time income growth was that high was during the 2000 elections in which Bush barely beat Gore but there wasnt even an incumbent that year. Realistically, any normal inoffensive Republican should of won in 2020 given the amount of spending to juice the economy.

I say the same thing to anyone who will listen, Democrats got stupid lucky in 2020
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=430024.msg7951083#msg7951083

I think Trump was on track to repeat his 2016 victory before COVID hit. The generic Democrat only led by 1-2 points in states like Wisconsin and PA. Tied in AZ and under water in Florida and North Carolina. If we assume the shy Trump vote, Trump wins.

An incumbent with a roaring economy should have easily won. The pandemic forced people to realize that having a safety net is important and we need to improve infrastructure. It also made people scared for their pocketbook and need healthcare.

The BLM showed that how important police brutality was and the need for a better President

And Georgia dumbass second round voting for senate

[Non Swing Voter]

Really seems like the only states that were ever in play were: PA, MI, WI, AZ, GA, NV, NC.

And I really think MI is a stretch to even include in that list because it was too much of a margin to flip and people were too settled on their decisions. 

I think WI, AZ, GA, NV were truly flippable because the margin and raw vote differences were fairly low.  PA was going to be hard though doable for Trump.  NC the same for Biden.

[Chips]

I think Motorcity explained it pretty well.

If COVID got even worse I think we could've saw TX and ME-02 flip, maybe IA and OH but those would be longshots.

If COVID was never a thing, I think Trump could've also won MN, NH, ME and maybe NM and VA but those two are longshots.

[KaiserDave]

Democrats neglecting in person campaigning was a major swing and a miss.