Why did New Hampshire shift so much to the left ?
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  Why did New Hampshire shift so much to the left ?
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Author Topic: Why did New Hampshire shift so much to the left ?  (Read 2580 times)
Hakudude
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« on: April 03, 2021, 08:29:49 AM »

I mean it was extremly close in 2016 but was the stare that shofted the most toward democrats
What are the reasons ?
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2021, 08:44:28 AM »

Are you asking why the State shifted so much to the left when it
1) reelected its GOP governor in a landslide
2) flipped both its houses to the GOP ?
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Biden his time
Abdullah
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2021, 08:58:26 AM »

Are you asking why the State shifted so much to the left when it
1) reelected its GOP governor in a landslide
2) flipped both its houses to the GOP ?

Board: "2020 U.S. Presidential Election"
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Fusternino
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2021, 12:10:34 PM »

Trump's personal irreligiosity no longer gave him credibility with socially liberal/economically conservative voters.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2021, 07:13:01 PM »

A better question would be "Why did New England Shift to the left".

NH simply adhered to the region's general trends.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2021, 07:16:35 PM »

Trump's rhetoric never seems to resonate as much as we like to think it does, but it is possible that him referring to it as a "drug-fueled den" hurt him here. Other factors were probably the identical trends in other New England states like the Granite State's relatively larger proportion of educated voters, especially in the Boston exurbs. That's probably the reason why Biden actually managed to outperform Obama in 2012 here. That factor is shared among nearly all states that Biden did better in than his former boss.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2021, 01:38:07 AM »

NH often has wild swings. 1988-1992 was pretty epic.
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Hakudude
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« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2021, 12:03:56 PM »

Are you asking why the State shifted so much to the left when it
1) reelected its GOP governor in a landslide
2) flipped both its houses to the GOP ?

Board: "2020 U.S. Presidential Election"


Yep, I meant the presidential election.
Anyway, thanks for the answers it was really instructive.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2021, 01:07:24 PM »

New England generally swung hard and I think a lot of it is just the gap between Candidate Trump and President Trump. Candidate Trump was easy to see as an irreligious softliner on social issues while President Trump had just finished appointing a woman hell-bent on overturning Roe on the SCOTUS. Trump seemed way harsher on abortion as president than before.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2021, 02:44:38 PM »

New England is generally a very elastic region. Also, it had some of the higher third-party vote in 2016 and most of that went to Biden.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2021, 10:59:23 PM »

New Hampshire is pretty moderate and so more prone to big swings.  Not a lot of liberals or big government type leftist like you see in neighboring states (it is live free or die state after all), but not very socially conservative and fairly moderate so more ideological elements in GOP are a huge turnoff to many.  Most GOP voters in not just New Hampshire but throughout New England are more moderate than in other parts of the country.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2021, 01:35:04 AM »

They hated Trump for his rhetoric and low class persona but they also hated the thought of their taxes being raised, hence why NH Republicans swept the State government. Presumably if Biden raises their taxes they'll swing right back in 2024
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2021, 01:36:42 AM »

Extremely angry female voters felt emboldened by the presence of a woman on the Democratic ticket. Smiley
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2021, 05:30:17 AM »

Are you asking why the State shifted so much to the left when it
1) reelected its GOP governor in a landslide
2) flipped both its houses to the GOP ?

I'm still confused as to why #2 happened.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2021, 02:49:57 PM »

Are you asking why the State shifted so much to the left when it
1) reelected its GOP governor in a landslide
2) flipped both its houses to the GOP ?

I'm still confused as to why #2 happened.
Moderate Suburbanites in the southern part of the state voted for GOP candidates on the state level as a "Check" on Joe Biden. Many of these suburbanites are Fiscally Conservative, Socially Liberal, and wanted Biden to appoint Liberals to SCOTUS while wanting the State Government to cut their taxes.
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2021, 08:39:55 PM »

Are you asking why the State shifted so much to the left when it
1) reelected its GOP governor in a landslide
2) flipped both its houses to the GOP ?

I'm still confused as to why #2 happened.
Moderate Suburbanites in the southern part of the state voted for GOP candidates on the state level as a "Check" on Joe Biden. Many of these suburbanites are Fiscally Conservative, Socially Liberal, and wanted Biden to appoint Liberals to SCOTUS while wanting the State Government to cut their taxes.

Worth remembering also that the GOP only won the popular vote for the State House by 2 percentage points and for the State Senate by ~3.5 percentage points. It's easy to frame this as some huge wave, but really they just won a ton of seats by a very narrow margin. Ticket splitting was certainly a dynamic here as you state (unclear whether actually 'check on Biden' or more just Sununu coattails), but so was gerrymandering and the element of chance conducive to wild swings associated with having so many tiny districts.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2021, 11:12:55 PM »

Fursternino and Mikado nailed it.  And it also explains the shift in other moderate to socially liberal suburban areas outside of New England. 

Candidate Trump came off as moderate (though abrasive).  President Trump was a (fake) right-winger through and through.  Didn't matter that his conservative views were fake when he was appointing extremists to the courts.  Also, I'd add that he did an even more incompetent job than people probably expected.  Many of these people probably thought he was a clown but assumed he'd just let smart people actually govern.  Covid handling made clear that wasn't the case.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2021, 08:17:31 AM »

Fursternino and Mikado nailed it.  And it also explains the shift in other moderate to socially liberal suburban areas outside of New England. 

Candidate Trump came off as moderate (though abrasive).  President Trump was a (fake) right-winger through and through.  Didn't matter that his conservative views were fake when he was appointing extremists to the courts.  Also, I'd add that he did an even more incompetent job than people probably expected.  Many of these people probably thought he was a clown but assumed he'd just let smart people actually govern.  Covid handling made clear that wasn't the case.
I hate this so much. It infrutited me back in 2016 when people said Trump was a moderate who would make deals. And that Hillary was a republican

But it must be nice to white and prilvaged
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prestructuralist
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« Reply #18 on: April 25, 2021, 07:52:46 AM »

Are you asking why the State shifted so much to the left when it
1) reelected its GOP governor in a landslide
2) flipped both its houses to the GOP ?

I'm still confused as to why #2 happened.
Moderate Suburbanites in the southern part of the state voted for GOP candidates on the state level as a "Check" on Joe Biden. Many of these suburbanites are Fiscally Conservative, Socially Liberal, and wanted Biden to appoint Liberals to SCOTUS while wanting the State Government to cut their taxes.

Worth remembering also that the GOP only won the popular vote for the State House by 2 percentage points and for the State Senate by ~3.5 percentage points. It's easy to frame this as some huge wave, but really they just won a ton of seats by a very narrow margin. Ticket splitting was certainly a dynamic here as you state (unclear whether actually 'check on Biden' or more just Sununu coattails), but so was gerrymandering and the element of chance conducive to wild swings associated with having so many tiny districts.
I also feel like with Trump's turnout there were likely a bunch of small districts that were flipped simply due to a bit more Republicans coming out than in 2018.
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bayareabay
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« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2021, 03:39:06 AM »

Because New Hampshirites are based
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Chips
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« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2021, 10:08:34 PM »

They hated Trump for his rhetoric and low class persona but they also hated the thought of their taxes being raised, hence why NH Republicans swept the State government. Presumably if Biden raises their taxes they'll swing right back in 2024

This is probably the reason why NH saw split results. IDK if they would just swing back if taxes were raised though.
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