Fulton v. Philadelphia: Roberts has 9-0 majority opinion; late vote switches?

[politicallefty]

Fulton was never going to be a win for the left. These religion cases are going to go one way from now on so long as the Court has its current composition. It is concerning if Alito is writing though. The best hope is that he's writing a plurality opinion where maybe Roberts and Kavanaugh concur in the judgement, but not necessarily the reasoning.

If Roberts does have the ACA case, that's definitely a relief. I'd be far more concerned if he isn't the one writing for the majority.

It's somewhat ironic how much hate Alito gets on Atlas. His father drew congressional districts for New Jersey.

I'm not sure what the latter point has to do with, but it's not surprising. Personally, I cannot think of a single opinion on a point of major contention that I agree with. He votes the most like a partisan Republican of any of the current Justices. I've written before about my issues with him. In particular, I think he's by far the worst Justice when it comes to protecting the rights of criminal defendants. While he did concur in the judgement, he was alone in not joining the majority opinion in Riley v. California.

[politicallefty]

Ain’t gonna happen. Kavanaugh breaks with Roberts in religion cases. It will be the absolute worst case scenario.

Oh, I don't think Roberts is a vote against the pro-religion side. He's been quite clear where he stands. I was only opining on the possibility that Roberts and Kavanaugh potentially write a concurring opinion that could somehow narrow the scope of the decision. (The worst case scenario is still the most likely, I agree.) It's just the best hope there is. I'm not saying it's the most likely scenario, just a reasonable possibility. The only other hope is that holding a majority together somewhat constrained Alito's majority opinion.

[politicallefty]

My vote switch theory is believed by credible sources.

Josh Blackman is a right-wing hack. I check on the Vololkh and SCOTUS parts of that site from time to time to get some perspective outside of my ideological bubble. For people like him, Justice Scalia wasn't even good enough and neither is this new 6-3 conservative majority. I read something from him that said there wouldn't be a true conservative majority until it becomes 7-2.

With that said, there might be something to what he said, but not necessarily in the same way. Justice Thomas is an island unto himself. I don't think this brokering of opinions works with him. We already know the three liberal Justices would vote to uphold the law under the Commerce Clause. That's four votes right there (technically three votes with a concurrence in judgement). I think Roberts saw through this suit as a way to try to troll him. The idea of standing through inseverability is a new one. It should not be entertained though. That would fundamentally change the courts as we know them.