Fulton v. Philadelphia: Roberts has 9-0 majority opinion; late vote switches?

[I’m not Stu]

Alito has the majority opinion in Fulton v. Philadelphia, which has not been handed down yet. I’m not certain, but I think it could be a 5-1-3 decision assigned to Alito by Thomas, with Roberts writing a narrower non-controlling concurrence in the judgment. Kavanaugh might also vote to kill Obamacare in a 5-4 decision with Roberts dissenting. These could both be opinions assigned by Thomas.

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1387776856217296902

[I’m not Stu]

Please stop making threads like this, especially when you can't even be bothered to read what you're posting. Roberts is writing the ACA opinion.

I said Kavanaugh might kill the ACA. I didn’t say will. Roberts probably writes the decision and upholds the ACA, but I said it’s possible he dissents. I was taken of context.

[I’m not Stu]

I wonder if Fulton will be a 5-1-3 decision (majority assigned to Alito by Thomas, Roberts concurring in the judgment or partially concurring and dissenting).

[I’m not Stu]

New poll: 6-3, 5-1-3, or 5-4?

[I’m not Stu]

Alito hinted months ago that he has the majority opinion in Fulton v. Philadelphia.

https://twitter.com/RichterJCCACEO/status/1327241840970633216

[I’m not Stu]

Fulton was never going to be a win for the left. These religion cases are going to go one way from now on so long as the Court has its current composition. It is concerning if Alito is writing though. The best hope is that he's writing a plurality opinion where maybe Roberts and Kavanaugh concur in the judgement, but not necessarily the reasoning.

If Roberts does have the ACA case, that's definitely a relief. I'd be far more concerned if he isn't the one writing for the majority.

It's somewhat ironic how much hate Alito gets on Atlas. His father drew congressional districts for New Jersey.

I'm not sure what the latter point has to do with, but it's not surprising. Personally, I cannot think of a single opinion on a point of major contention that I agree with. He votes the most like a partisan Republican of any of the current Justices. I've written before about my issues with him. In particular, I think he's by far the worst Justice when it comes to protecting the rights of criminal defendants. While he did concur in the judgement, he was alone in not joining the majority opinion in Riley v. California.

Ain’t gonna happen. Kavanaugh breaks with Roberts in religion cases. It will be the absolute worst case scenario.

[I’m not Stu]

It's somewhat ironic how much hate Alito gets on Atlas. His father drew congressional districts for New Jersey.

Alito also believes rotten boroughs should be legal.

[I’m not Stu]

It's somewhat ironic how much hate Alito gets on Atlas. His father drew congressional districts for New Jersey.

Alito also believes rotten boroughs should be legal.

Doesn’t he just believe they’re not unconstitutional?

No, he wants the country to be a dictatorship.

[I’m not Stu]

It's somewhat ironic how much hate Alito gets on Atlas. His father drew congressional districts for New Jersey.

Alito also believes rotten boroughs should be legal.

Doesn’t he just believe they’re not unconstitutional?

No, he wants the country to be a dictatorship.

I see. Do you want to come here for legal reasoning?

Alito himself doesn’t even care about legal reasoning.

[I’m not Stu]

It's somewhat ironic how much hate Alito gets on Atlas. His father drew congressional districts for New Jersey.

Alito also believes rotten boroughs should be legal.

Doesn’t he just believe they’re not unconstitutional?

No, he wants the country to be a dictatorship.

I see. Do you want to come here for legal reasoning?

Alito himself doesn’t even care about legal reasoning.

So are you trying to imitate him?

No. Even with conservative judges, Alito is an outlier.

[I’m not Stu]

Only Breyer, Roberts, and Alito haven’t had anything from the November sitting. Roberts gets Obamacare. Alito or Breyer gets the gay adoption case.

[I’m not Stu]

I think Alito originally had the majority opinion; but lost it because Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan switched their votes to get a narrower decision. I bet there will be leaks from Kavanaugh or Virginia Thomas.

[I’m not Stu]

Nope

ROBERTS, C. J., delivered the opinion of the Court, in which BREYER, SOTOMAYOR, KAGAN, KAVANAUGH, and BARRETT, JJ., joined. BARRETT, J., filed a concurring opinion, in which KAVANAUGH, J., joined, and in which BREYER, J., joined as to all but the first paragraph. ALITO, J., filed an opinion concurring in the judgment, in which THOMAS and GORSUCH, JJ., joined. GORSUCH, J., filed an opinion concurring in the judgment, in which THOMAS and ALITO, JJ., joined.

It’s for the adoption agency, btw.

On a rather technical point. The entire case seems to have been decided on the basis of the fact that the City of Philadelphia was permitted to grant exceptions to the mandate.

Clearly not the result the right wanted, as can be seen in Alito's textbook-length angry concurrence.

I bet Josh Blackman at Reason will write an article speculating the liberals switched their votes to get a narrower decision, and that Alito’s concurrence was originally going to be the majority opinion that was lost.

[I’m not Stu]

Breyer might be open to overruling Smith without establishing a strict scrutiny standard Alito wants.
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1405532195356168208

[I’m not Stu]

A 77 page concurrence by Alito?

[I’m not Stu]

A 77 page concurrence by Alito?

I really want to know what happened behind the scenes with this case. Originally it looked like Alito was going to write this case so I wonder what changed.

The liberals switched their votes late to get a narrower decision in favor of Catholic Social Services.

[I’m not Stu]

Cert will be granted in Arlene’s Flowers. Alito writes the majority opinion. Roberts partially agrees with the judgment or dissents (a 5-1-3 or 5-4 decision).

[I’m not Stu]

My vote switch theory is believed by credible sources.

[I’m not Stu]

There is bipartisan speculation that there were late vote switches. The bingo card of opinion assignments also hints that it’s possible.