Are there any counties Tim Scott would lose to the Constitution Party nominee?
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  Are there any counties Tim Scott would lose to the Constitution Party nominee?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Are there any counties Tim Scott would lose to the Constitution Party nominee?  (Read 1081 times)
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« on: April 28, 2021, 01:23:44 PM »
Would Tim Scott as the GOP nominee lose any counties to the Constitution Party nominee? I can imagine the Constitution Party candidate winning? Maybe LaSalle Parish in Louisiana or Cullman/Winston counties in Alabama?
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Bedke
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2021, 01:28:33 PM »
No. The Constitution Party got less than 60k votes nationwide in 2020. Tim Scott is not going to bleed support among southern whites just because he is black. Party label means more than race to Republicans.
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Biden his time
Abdullah
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2021, 01:29:22 PM »
No, I don't think so. The Constitution Party is in decline, and white people in South Carolina have no problem voting for Tim Scott. In fact, he wins some black votes, too.

Even if such a scenario did occur, though, I think there'd be some independent candidate or new party forming to take these guys' votes. For example, Evan McMullin became a thing in 2016 for conservatives who didn't like Trump personally, and he ran Independent.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2021, 01:33:44 PM »
Quote from: Bedke on April 28, 2021, 01:28:33 PM
No. The Constitution Party got less than 60k votes nationwide in 2020. Tim Scott is not going to bleed support among southern whites just because he is black. Party label means more than race to Republicans.
You don't know LaSalle Parish, Louisiana. A white Democrat won it easily in the 2003 gubernatorial election. LaSalle Parish won't vote for a Democrat anymore, but I can imagine it voting for a conservative white third party candidate when there's an alternative to the GOP on the ballot.
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Bedke
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2021, 02:18:06 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on April 28, 2021, 01:33:44 PM
Quote from: Bedke on April 28, 2021, 01:28:33 PM
No. The Constitution Party got less than 60k votes nationwide in 2020. Tim Scott is not going to bleed support among southern whites just because he is black. Party label means more than race to Republicans.
You don't know LaSalle Parish, Louisiana. A white Democrat won it easily in the 2003 gubernatorial election. LaSalle Parish won't vote for a Democrat anymore, but I can imagine it voting for a conservative white third party candidate when there's an alternative to the GOP on the ballot.
It's possible, but not probable. If Tim Scott sets himself as a Trump Republican, that's all that will matter to them.
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tosk
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« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2021, 02:33:26 PM »
no
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2021, 04:35:00 PM »
The Constitution Party nominee will lose every county regardless of who the Dem or Rep nominees are.
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NYDem
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« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2021, 07:29:08 PM »
There is not a single county in the country where they would sniff 10% of the vote.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2021, 08:53:53 PM »
Quote from: This space intentionally left blank on April 28, 2021, 07:29:08 PM
There is not a single county in the country where they would sniff 10% of the vote.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
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« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2021, 09:33:00 PM »
Quote from: This space intentionally left blank on April 28, 2021, 07:29:08 PM
There is not a single county in the country where they would sniff 10% of the vote.
I think even 3% would be a huge reach for them.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2021, 05:29:15 PM »
I can accept that Scott will bleed votes to a third party on grounds of race, especially if the Democratic nominee is also an ethnic minority - hardcore racists will be satisfied with neither candidate. That will not be enough to flip a single county.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2021, 07:41:22 PM »
No but a few counties will have a swing left for one cycle because of it.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2021, 01:38:34 AM »
It'd be shocking if the Constitution Party even survives to 2024, and third party protest votes are mostly fungible anyway (you'll get far leftists voting Libertarian or far rightists voting Green if they're the only non R or D item on the ballot out of protest).

I do think the Libertarian Party would have a banner year in a Biden vs Scott race, though not enough to win a state.
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Chips
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« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2021, 07:13:12 PM »
Quote from: Bedke on April 28, 2021, 01:28:33 PM
No. The Constitution Party got less than 60k votes nationwide in 2020. Tim Scott is not going to bleed support among southern whites just because he is black. Party label means more than race to Republicans.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #14 on: May 13, 2021, 10:49:13 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on April 28, 2021, 01:33:44 PM
Quote from: Bedke on April 28, 2021, 01:28:33 PM
No. The Constitution Party got less than 60k votes nationwide in 2020. Tim Scott is not going to bleed support among southern whites just because he is black. Party label means more than race to Republicans.
You don't know LaSalle Parish, Louisiana. A white Democrat won it easily in the 2003 gubernatorial election. LaSalle Parish won't vote for a Democrat anymore, but I can imagine it voting for a conservative white third party candidate when there's an alternative to the GOP on the ballot.

Didn't Bobby Jindal win here easily?
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