Why didn't Hillary run in 2004

[Motorcity]

We all know it was Hillary's dream to become President and she got lucky that Kerry lost

Had Kerry won, she wouldn't be able to run until 2012. By than, Democrats would have been in the White House for 16 of the last 20 years.

Hillary took a risk not running in 2004. So why didn't she?

[Skill and Chance]

Actually, if Kerry won in 2004, he would be toast in 2008 unless he could somehow prevent the financial crisis, and I doubt there was anything that could be done as late as 2005.  I think Clinton runs and wins in 2012 in that world. 

In retrospect, this was Hillary's golden opportunity and it was weird that she waited.  This was before she had accumulated so many scandals and controversies.  If Kerry came that close, a Clinton almost surely would have won.

[hurricanehink]

She had only been a senator for four years, and with it being so soon after 9/11, she probably calculated that Bush was going to win anyway. Bush had an approval rating in the 60s in early 2003.

[Motorcity]

Actually, if Kerry won in 2004, he would be toast in 2008 unless he could somehow prevent the financial crisis, and I doubt there was anything that could be done as late as 2005.  I think Clinton runs and wins in 2012 in that world. 

In retrospect, this was Hillary's golden opportunity and it was weird that she waited.  This was before she had accumulated so many scandals and controversies.  If Kerry came that close, a Clinton almost surely would have won.

But Hillary had no idea that 2008 would be a bad year for the incumbent party. For all she knew, Kerry could have an amazing 8 years followed by Vice President Edward in 2012. She took a big risk not running in 2004

[Motorcity]

She had only been a senator for four years, and with it being so soon after 9/11, she probably calculated that Bush was going to win anyway. Bush had an approval rating in the 60s in early 2003.

Funny enough according to Joe Biden's biography, he saw 2004 as his best chance. (This was before Trump)

[vitoNova]

For the same reason Trump didn't run in 2012.

Because the incumbent was winning regardless. 

[UWS]

For the same reason Trump didn't run in 2012.

Because the incumbent was winning regardless. 

Especially since Bush was a wartime President, which helps the incumbent even more.

[vitoNova]

For the same reason Trump didn't run in 2012.

Because the incumbent was winning regardless. 

Especially since Bush was a wartime President, which helps the incumbent even more.

True dat.  I give mad props to John Kerry for managing to keep it as close as it was.    And highlights his above-average quality as a candidate.

[Skill and Chance]

For the same reason Trump didn't run in 2012.

Because the incumbent was winning regardless. 

Especially since Bush was a wartime President, which helps the incumbent even more.

True dat.  I give mad props to John Kerry for managing to keep it as close as it was.    And highlights his above-average quality as a candidate.

Maybe.  I also wonder about a declining incumbent advantage in general.  2020 was obviously a loss, and both 2012 and 2004 were underwhelming wins.  Even 1996 looks weak compared to any incumbent reelection during 1920-1988. 

[MT Treasurer]

Because she (rightly) thought that she would lose that election. Kerry had none of Clinton's baggage/years of intense opposition directed at him from the right, it’s not like his performance was the D floor that year.

[Motorcity]

For the same reason Trump didn't run in 2012.

Because the incumbent was winning regardless. 

Especially since Bush was a wartime President, which helps the incumbent even more.

True dat.  I give mad props to John Kerry for managing to keep it as close as it was.    And highlights his above-average quality as a candidate.

Maybe.  I also wonder about a declining incumbent advantage in general.  2020 was obviously a loss, and both 2012 and 2004 were underwhelming wins.  Even 1996 looks weak compared to any incumbent reelection during 1920-1988. 

What? The incumbent over performed polls in 2004, 2012, and 2020

[SInNYC]

Deservedly or not, she was not a popular first lady among the majority of voters.  She needed to gain some popularity, which she did by being senator. But she had campaigned for senate promising to finish her term, and she would have had to start campaigning for president two years into her term. She (correctly IMO) reasoned that there is no way this would fly with her baggage.

As an aside, there was speculation about a draft Hillary movement in case the anti Iraq war Dean was winning the primary.

[brucejoel99]

Game Change made clear that it was because she (&, perhaps more importantly, Chelsea) was fully committed to honoring her pledge to serve a full term as a Senator.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

While her winning in 2008 would have still meant a combination of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton, her repeating her husband's feat of defeating an incumbent Bush may have been a bit too much. And the odds probably always seemed to be heavily in W. Bush's favour anyway.

[Real Texan Politics]

For the same reason Trump didn't run in 2012.

Because the incumbent was winning regardless. 

Especially since Bush was a wartime President, which helps the incumbent even more.

True dat.  I give mad props to John Kerry for managing to keep it as close as it was.    And highlights his above-average quality as a candidate.

To be fair though, that Osama video seems to get a lot of credit for turning the election around in Bush's favor.

Probably would've been more likely for her to win (and by a 400+ vote landslide) in 2008 if she were the nominee since she was more moderate at the time compared to 2016 and today.

[Schiff for Senate]

The book Game Change, detailing the 2008 election in great depth, explains why Clinton chose not to run - she promised that she would serve her full term in the senate (2001-2007) and wouldn't run for president, and while most of her advisors felt she could win (contrary to what some here seem to think), her daughter, Chelsea, told her she shouldn't run in 2004, and Hillary ultimatley concurred.