French presidential election, 2022
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January 20, 2022, 10:00:31 AM

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Author Topic: French presidential election, 2022  (Read 26401 times)
Sir John Johns
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« Reply #450 on: January 13, 2022, 05:39:26 PM »

Actually I never watch a single of his videos, first and foremost because my Internet connection is too unstable to enjoy watching long Youtube videos (also because I largely prefer writing over video/audio for various reasons). Came across to his Twitter account from another Twitter account.


* The Macron government has faced today the largest strike in education sector since twenty years with a sizable share of preschools and primary schools teachers on strike (38.5% according to the ministry of education and 75% according to the unions – as usual in France with significantly diverging estimates between the government and strikers or protesters). One school out of two was closed today. The strike was also supported by all teachers’ and professors’ unions, the main parents’ organization and even the unions of administrative personnel, school principals and school inspectors which is not something happening very often.

The main grievance of the strikers is the constantly changing and over-complicated health protocols, decided by the minister Jean-Michel Blanquer in haste and without consultation, whose implementation is turning into a disaster with record numbers of contamination among students and teachers and closed schools in a backdrop of shortage of COVID-19 testing kits in pharmacies, overcrowding of testing centers and sluggish vaccination rate among children. The education minister is also criticized for his opposition to the distribution of FFP2 masks to teachers and the persisting absence of CO2 sensors in classrooms.

And that’s for the sole health aspect because he is also opposed by unions for, among other things, his reform of baccalaureate, for the mess that is Parcoursup, the web platform in charge of university admissions (with accusations of opacity and bias against students from low-income families), for the material and financial support granted by the ministry to a yellow high-school student union and for his active involvement in the witch-hunt against ‘wokism’ and ‘Islamo-Leftism’ among social science academics (contrasting with how Didier Raoult has had for months free rein to promote his miracle cure against COVID-19 as head of Marseille university hospital institute and the related scandals over his cottage industry of falsified scientific studies and his undeclared experiments for treatment of tuberculosis, including on homeless persons, that are remaining without serious sanctions).

For a man appointed as a minister due to his alleged technical expertise as a former director of school education in the ministry, Blanquer turns out to be arguably the most ideological member of the Macron government. He is now in a position of weakness as leaders of the opposition are openly calling for his resignation, as he is widely despised by the whole public education sector, as he is increasingly isolated inside the government and has reportedly an argument with the health minister in the last council of ministers and as it has been the prime minister himself who announced the latest changes in the health protocols and took control of the negotiations with the main teachers unions.



* Strong rumors that Montebourg will terminated once and for all his presidential bid which is going nowhere to, possibly, endorse... Taubira.



* Zemmour has formally acknowledged living with his main adviser who is 35 year younger than him. His own wife was present at the meeting launching his candidacy, some weeks ago... This is turning into soap opera (and a pretty bad one).



* Guillaume Peltier is using the LR membership files he kept after leaving the party to recruit supports for Zemmour among the right-wing rank-and-file members. This is certainly illegal and Christian Jacob, the president of LR, has complained before the personal data protection watchdog.

Actually not the first time this is happening in French far-right politics: in the late 1990s, Nicolas Miguet, a crooked businessman and perennial ‘presidential candidate’ for his anti-tax party (he always announced his candidacy to each election, somehow managed to have his election posters plastered in every single commune of France but failed to get the signatures), already stole the list of FN and MPF members to advance his party, his stock market information newspaper, his small shareholders association and his holding, all domiciled in the same building.



* Meanwhile, it seems that Robert Ménard, the independent far-right mayor of Béziers often seen on TV and a political maverick to some extent (he is supporting Macron’s push for a vaccine passport, an unpopular position on the far-right), is now supporting Le Pen after having hesitate to endorse Zemmour he is considering by now as too polarizing and too obsessed by immigration.



* Anne Hidalgo has announced her program which including notably:
- a 15% increase in minimum wage
- the suppression of the unemployment insurance reform (notoriously unfavorable to unemployed persons) decided by Macron
- the lowering the voting age to 16 and the recognition of blank vote
- the change in the electoral timetable to hold legislative elections (with the mandatory dose de proportionnelle - limited PR) before the presidential ones
- the creation of a ministry for women’s rights and a ministry for climate
- the institution of some sort of universal revenue for young over 18 with a 5,000€ sum allocated to each young when reaching the age of majority
- the introduction of a citizens’ initiative referendum
- the introduction of measures to limit pay gap inside companies
- the abolition of Parcoursup
- no change in legal retirement age (staying at 62)
- an increase in the salaries of teachers and professors (but not the doubling initially announced)
- the institution of a wealth tax to fund ecological transition
- the introduction of a 16-week paternity leave (of which 6 weeks would be mandatory)
- no construction of additional EPR (providing the first one is even completed: the entry into service of the Flamanville EPR, whose construction is ongoing since 2007, has been few days ago once again postponed, this time to mid-2023) or small nuclear reactors with an exit from nuclear energy planned for 2050 (against 2030 in Mélenchon’s platform)
- making mental health a priority
- a ‘conference’ on weed legalization (when Jadot and Mélenchon are openly in favor)



* some philosopher/essayist/writer named Gaspard Koenig has announced his own presidential bid for the 'Simple' movement he has founded. His main plank is a drastic simplification of administrative standards and the end of the 'bureaucratic oppression', a goal he intends achieving by dividing the number of administrative standards by hundred. He has no chance to get the signatures and is probably running only for self-promotion, still he got some media exposure these last days.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #451 on: January 15, 2022, 08:41:55 AM »

Taubira has officially declared and unveiled parts of her platform: an increase of minimal wage to €1,400 (up from €1.269), a €800 monthly revenue for students during five years, the hiring of 100,000 professional carers and nurses and a 0% VAT on organic farming products. She has however said she would respect the results of the ‘popular primary’ she is the favorite to win. The ‘popular primary’ for a united left-wing presidential candidacy resulting with yet an additional candidacy would be an ironic outcome. The PS mayor of Marseille has also announced he would campaigned for the winner of the popular primary.





Jean Lassalle is threatening to sue Zemmour, claiming the logo of Reconquest has been plagiarized on the one of Lassalle’s party, Résistons! Note, that the recently appointed spokesman of Zemmour’s party, the Egyptian-born Jean Messiha (a very nasty guy who is spending his days in the studios of Bolloré's TV channels), has been kicked out from the RN for repeatedly plagiarizing articles of far-right websites and elsewhere on the Internet to redact his own memos he was paid €16,200 by Le Pen’s party. He was already the most paid adviser to Le Pen in her 2017 campaign, receiving the exorbitant salary of €12,700 a month (more than a minister) as the coordinator of Le Pen’s presidential project.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #452 on: January 17, 2022, 04:47:51 PM »



It's just one poll, but let's be honest - the Communist candidate drawing level with the PS one is pretty hysterical.

The fact that they're level at 3%... Well, Jean Jaurès will be spinning in his grave
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DL
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« Reply #453 on: January 17, 2022, 05:58:32 PM »

I'm trying to imagine the dynamics of the Macron vs Pecresse run-off. It would be "le president pour les riches" vs "la presidente pour les encore plus riches"

I could see Zemmour's voters viewing Pecresse as a  "lesser of two evils" in a second round, but what would happen to LePen's 'poor white trash" voter base if she was eliminated? Would they abstain en masse? Would they split evenly? Would they go for a Versailles style elitist aristocrat like Pecresse?
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #454 on: January 18, 2022, 04:42:11 AM »

in that same interview, Macron criticized his own education minister, Jean-Michel Blanquer, for the way he informed teachers of the updated health protocols in schools: in the evening, on the eve of the back-to-school day and in an interview to a newspaper behind paywall...

This is going unbelievably worse for Blanquer:



Quote
Omicron: Blanquer has announced the new protocol in schools from Ibiza.

The minister returned from his holiday in the Balearic Islands only the day before the classes resumed, despite the fifth wave and its consequences on school life.

No such than a scandal exposing how your education minister is a complete joke, just few days before another massive strike in the education sector and less than three months before the presidential election first round. A LREM senator (François Patriat, ex-PS) somehow managed to add more fuel to the fire by stating that ‘teachers would not like their holidays being discussed’.
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Velasco
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« Reply #455 on: January 19, 2022, 01:07:33 AM »

just one poll, but let's be honest - the Communist candidate drawing level with the PS one is pretty hysterical.

The fact that they're level at 3%... Well, Jean Jaurès will be spinning in his grave

Which word is more descriptive, "depressing" or "disheartening"?
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buritobr
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« Reply #456 on: January 19, 2022, 07:29:34 PM »

According the most recent OpinionWay poll (January 16-19th 2022)

Sum of the left: 28%
Macron: 24%
Sum of the right: 49%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election

if you consider that all the candidates showed on the left of Macron in the table in the Wikipedia article belong to the left and all the candidates showed on the right of Macron in this table belong to the right.

Considering the poll, the french electorate can be split in 2 almost equal parts. One part has Macron + Left. The other part has the Right.
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MRS KSHAMA SAWANT
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« Reply #457 on: January 19, 2022, 07:35:47 PM »

A significant amount of the LR vote around Angela Thatcher will break towards Macron if Zemour or Le Pen makes the runoff, as will a good chunk of Melenchon’s, and and almost all of the PCF vote and social liberal candidate supporters (Taubira, Hidalgo, Jadot).

Macron will be elected again no problem.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #458 on: Today at 05:11:04 AM »

Considering the poll, the french electorate can be split in 2 almost equal parts. One part has Macron + Left. The other part has the Right.

No, I mean, very, very, very No. Macron cannot be programmatically associated with the left and his electorate is not a left wing one. Not unless you have a very severe case of America brain.
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adma
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« Reply #459 on: Today at 05:39:01 AM »

Considering the poll, the french electorate can be split in 2 almost equal parts. One part has Macron + Left. The other part has the Right.

No, I mean, very, very, very No. Macron cannot be programmatically associated with the left and his electorate is not a left wing one. Not unless you have a very severe case of America brain.

Still, a lot of what might be France's equivalent to "Justin Trudeau moderates" is parked in the Macron camp out of "electable convenience".  So that's where the "Macron + Left" kicks in.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #460 on: Today at 05:55:37 AM »

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parochial boy
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« Reply #461 on: Today at 05:55:47 AM »

Considering the poll, the french electorate can be split in 2 almost equal parts. One part has Macron + Left. The other part has the Right.

No, I mean, very, very, very No. Macron cannot be programmatically associated with the left and his electorate is not a left wing one. Not unless you have a very severe case of America brain.

Still, a lot of what might be France's equivalent to "Justin Trudeau moderates" is parked in the Macron camp out of "electable convenience".  So that's where the "Macron + Left" kicks in.

Except it's even more so the case that his electorate comes from what you might typically consider the "moderate" or "liberal" right - and that is a far more accurate explanation of what is going on than to try and glue him together with a left that is both ideologically and demographically opposed to him.

I mean, the cliché Macron voter these days is basically someone rich who lives in the west of Paris - and just a casual glance at the results of the 2019 European election makes it very obvious that his strongholds are places that are either rich (the west of Paris, Pays de Gex, west Lyonnais) or places that are traditionally strongholds of the liberal/catholic right (Pyrénées-Atlantiques, the Inner West).

It all screams "centre-right" electorate, precisly because that is what it is. I mean, you would clearly not analyse the French electorate of the 1970s as the "the left + Giscard d'Estaing", and doing that with Macron amounts to more or less the same thing.
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Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #462 on: Today at 06:06:13 AM »

Well, where are the people who put Hollande over the top in 2012? Who are they supporting now?
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adma
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« Reply #463 on: Today at 06:37:25 AM »

Considering the poll, the french electorate can be split in 2 almost equal parts. One part has Macron + Left. The other part has the Right.

No, I mean, very, very, very No. Macron cannot be programmatically associated with the left and his electorate is not a left wing one. Not unless you have a very severe case of America brain.

Still, a lot of what might be France's equivalent to "Justin Trudeau moderates" is parked in the Macron camp out of "electable convenience".  So that's where the "Macron + Left" kicks in.

Except it's even more so the case that his electorate comes from what you might typically consider the "moderate" or "liberal" right - and that is a far more accurate explanation of what is going on than to try and glue him together with a left that is both ideologically and demographically opposed to him.

I mean, the cliché Macron voter these days is basically someone rich who lives in the west of Paris - and just a casual glance at the results of the 2019 European election makes it very obvious that his strongholds are places that are either rich (the west of Paris, Pays de Gex, west Lyonnais) or places that are traditionally strongholds of the liberal/catholic right (Pyrénées-Atlantiques, the Inner West).

It all screams "centre-right" electorate, precisly because that is what it is. I mean, you would clearly not analyse the French electorate of the 1970s as the "the left + Giscard d'Estaing", and doing that with Macron amounts to more or less the same thing.

Well, in that case, you could just as well call the Canadian equivalent "the left + Paul Martin Liberals" (i.e. those who might live in Oakville or Westmount)--and there've *always* been those NDP sorts in Canada who'd label the Libs a "centre-right" party of monied elites in hock to Bay Street interests, no different in its fundamentals from the Conservatives, despite whatever leftish masquerade it might project out of electoral opportunism.

Yet "the left" in Canada still votes Liberal because...they're not the scary Conservatives.  Much as they might vote for Macron because he's not like those scary others.  And if it were a runoff of Giscard d'Estaing vs someone to the "scary right" of him, well...
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Zinneke
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« Reply #464 on: Today at 07:12:51 AM »

Well, where are the people who put Hollande over the top in 2012? Who are they supporting now?

About 50% are supporting Macron, or so I heard on a podcast I'm listening to.

Remember that Hollande got sizeable transfers from Centrist voters because Sarkozy was a genuinely horrible, corrupt person and that people should remember that Macron, despite the Benalla affair, doesn't have the abuse of power affairs that Sarkozy had.

adma needs to stop comparing French politics to Canadian politics though.

The electoral systems are different (so yes, a leftist may vote Macron in second round, doesn't mean they support him or like him - and more and more say they will abstain, otherwise Pécresse wouldn't be close in 2nd round polling)

And the cleavages are different.

Trudeau and Macron are put side by side by a weird bunch of international journalists who see them as from the same political tradition of milktoast post-2000 neoliberalism when Macron is really sui generis and a couple of statements on climate change being bad and multilateralism being good doesn't necessarily make him a liberal.

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adma
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« Reply #465 on: Today at 08:06:35 AM »

Well, where are the people who put Hollande over the top in 2012? Who are they supporting now?

About 50% are supporting Macron, or so I heard on a podcast I'm listening to.

Remember that Hollande got sizeable transfers from Centrist voters because Sarkozy was a genuinely horrible, corrupt person and that people should remember that Macron, despite the Benalla affair, doesn't have the abuse of power affairs that Sarkozy had.

adma needs to stop comparing French politics to Canadian politics though.

The electoral systems are different (so yes, a leftist may vote Macron in second round, doesn't mean they support him or like him - and more and more say they will abstain, otherwise Pécresse wouldn't be close in 2nd round polling)

And the cleavages are different.

Trudeau and Macron are put side by side by a weird bunch of international journalists who see them as from the same political tradition of milktoast post-2000 neoliberalism when Macron is really sui generis and a couple of statements on climate change being bad and multilateralism being good doesn't necessarily make him a liberal.



Re Pecresse being close in 2nd round polling: that'd still roughly correspond w/ the "left + Macron" vs "right" figures, wouldn't it?  "Left + Macron" doesn't equal "Left = Macron", particularly given the nature of the political divide (and I'm looking beyond the strict "left-right" binary here) these days compared to the Giscard D'Estaing era.

I'm not claiming they're politically equivalent--and frankly, in terms of Canada, it's not just a "Justin thing", left-proxy has *always* been the case w/the Liberals in Canada, the inverse of the UK where the Lib Dems are the monkeys-in-the-middle.  It's just that Macron represents the first time when a so-framed exceptional "middle force" in French politics has confronted prime opposition on the right (first Le Pen, now...whomever), which sort of forces the left-leaning-by-shotgun "grand coalition" matter.  But if it were Macron vs the "Mitterrand left" a la Giscard D'Estaing, the dynamic would reverse itself...
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