French presidential election, 2022

[Lechasseur]

Even the right is left-wing in France...

Eh, there was a joke where the left-wing politicians are in the conservative party and the right-wing ones in the socialist party.

Obviously not really relevant now given the collapse of LR and PS, but there was some truth to that.

It almost seems to me that Mitterrand was a natural conservative who joined the SFIO for the sake of his political career (that being said, he did a lot of good for the French left in terms of getting their agenda through and making them a viable force again), while Hollande was basically a PS member due to his fondness for social liberalism without ever really having embraced any of the non-cultural tenents (which is basically what caused him to become so unpopular so quickly).

Then on the right, Chirac and Juppé were former communists who somehow found themselves being Gaullists (Chirac surely due to his marriage with Bernadette and to make his in-laws happy, Juppé idk), but their convictions seem to have always been more to the left.

Chirac's presidency is known by many a right-wing activist as the "12 lost years".

[Lord Halifax]

Then on the right, Chirac and Juppé were former communists who somehow found themselves being Gaullists (Chirac surely due to his marriage with Bernadette and to make his in-laws happy, Juppé idk), but their convictions seem to have always been more to the left.

Never knew that about Juppé. When was he a Communist? He came from a Gaullist family (his father was in the Gaullist part of La Résistance).

[Lechasseur]

Then on the right, Chirac and Juppé were former communists who somehow found themselves being Gaullists (Chirac surely due to his marriage with Bernadette and to make his in-laws happy, Juppé idk), but their convictions seem to have always been more to the left.

Never knew that about Juppé. When was he a Communist? He came from a Gaullist family (his father was in the Gaullist part of La Résistance).

Yeah he voted for the Communist League's candidate, Alain Krivine, in the 1969 presidential election

[Lechasseur]

Lol I just discovered on LinkedIn today that someone I know IRL is running for president lol

[Tirnam]

A few polls after the regional elections (Harris, Ipsos and OpinionWay were done between the first and the second round, Elabe after the second round).

Harris
Macron: 25-28%
Le Pen: 26-28%
Right: 16% for Bertrand, 10% for Pécresse and Wauquiez
Mélenchon: 10%
Jadot: 7-8%
Hidalgo: 6-7%

Ipsos
Macron: 24-27%
Le Pen: 24-26%
Right: 18% for Bertrand, 13% for Pécresse and Wauquiez
Jadot: 10%
Hidalgo: 8-9%
Mélenchon: 7%

OpinionWay
Macron: 26-31%
Le Pen: 24-25%
Right: 20% for Bertrand, 13% for Pécresse and 12% for Wauquiez
Mélenchon: 9-10%
Jadot: 8-9%
Hidalgo: 7%

Elabe
Macron: 29-31%
Le Pen: 23-25%
Right: 14% for Bertrand, 12% for Wauquiez, 11% for Pécresse
Mélenchon: 9-10%
Jadot: 6-7%
Hidalgo: 4-5%

For the second round, against Le Pen, Macron is at 55% with Harris, 60% with Elabe.

[parochial boy]

Éric Piolle is in, standing in the EELV primary - might actually present a challenge to Jadot. Hopefully.

But more importantly, so is this guy


Mes chers frouzes, you now know who to vote for.

[Former President tack50]

Question for the French posters here:

1) Given how divisive both Macron and Le Pen are, as well as his good polling numbers, how likely is a Wauquiez surge?

2) Any chance of some sort of left wing alliance? Cause it seems the only way they could get to the runoff at all

[Lechasseur]

Question for the French posters here:

1) Given how divisive both Macron and Le Pen are, as well as his good polling numbers, how likely is a Wauquiez surge?

2) Any chance of some sort of left wing alliance? Cause it seems the only way they could get to the runoff at all

Wauquiez won’t be the nominee imo. It will probably be Bertrand. And unfortunately I don’t see a left wing alliance happening, but we’ll see.

[Former President tack50]

Question for the French posters here:

1) Given how divisive both Macron and Le Pen are, as well as his good polling numbers, how likely is a Wauquiez surge?

2) Any chance of some sort of left wing alliance? Cause it seems the only way they could get to the runoff at all

Wauquiez won’t be the nominee imo. It will probably be Bertrand. And unfortunately I don’t see a left wing alliance happening, but we’ll see.

Yeah whoops I meant Bertrand there (for some reason I thought it was Wauquiez the one that was polling much better than the other 2); which made me wonder if there was a chance of an LR upset

Also why does Bertrand poll so much better than the other 2?

[parochial boy]

Yeah, what Lechasseur says. The pundit class seems to be be suggesting the Right's candidate will be either Bertrand or Pécresse right now. And while I wouldn't rule it out, I don't necessarily some big LR surge round the corner - especially not under Wauquiez (who generally polls worse than the other two, and was an aboslutely meh LR president).

A left unity candidate has been much discussed, and much pushed but is very unlikely to happen.

Firstly because of the egos game. As in, both Mélenchon and Jadot support a left unity candidate... on the condition that it is them. And then you had this meeting a couple of months ago where the left parties all met to discuss the possibility of a union. Except they managed to choose a date where Méluche was out of the country, LFI were barely present, and they came out of it with deeply confused messaging - Faure (PS President) came out being all positive about the posibility only to be shot down by EELV's Julien Bayou.

Then there is also the fact that there can be some rather irreconciliable differences on the left. Put simply, on ecology, cultural issuse/racism/laïcité, the welfare state, redistribution... there are some pretty huge differences between the likes of Jadot (but also the likes of Hidalgo, some PS old guard) on one side, and the likes of Méluche on the other. Of course, it's a lot more complicated than that, because you have the likes of Hamon who is compatible with "both" sides. And EELV are already a pretty schizophrenic party in that they include social liberals like Jadot, or much stronger left wingers like Sandrine Rousseau. So unity might be possible, it's just that if there are two "poles" on the left, the two strongest profiles happen to both be on the opposite poles, and both be raging egomaniacs. So...

[Zinneke]

That is a beautiful signature, ngl.

[DL]

Can anyone explain to me what difference there is on the issues between Macron and "Les Republicains"? I realize that four years ago while there was basically zero difference on economic policy or EU policy between Macron and Francois Fillon, but there was a difference on some social issues since Fillon was an Catholic traditionalist anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ fanatic etc... and Macron was more of a "social liberal". But I get the feeling those are now old issues are very unlikely to be championed by anyone else running as the LR presidential candidate.

Which brings me back to my question - are there ANY issues that separate Macron and LR? What would make anyone vote for Bertrand over Macron or vice-versa?  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah he voted for the Communist League's candidate, Alain Krivine, in the 1969 presidential election

That would make him a former Trot rather than a former Commie. Which is much funnier because it is such a cliche.

[Continential]

Since I know some French, I want to follow French politics. Is there any websites/posts that can help me understand French politics? It doesn't matter if the websites are in English or French.

[Zinneke]

Since I know some French, I want to follow French politics. Is there any websites/posts that can help me understand French politics? It doesn't matter if the websites are in English or French.

For me a good daily source of info on the pure political machinations is the POLITIO Paris playbook :

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/playbook-paris/

[parochial boy]

Little bumb because dates are now confirmed. 10th April for the first round and 24th April for the second

[Jackson Lee]

Macron will lose next year, I’m pretty sure about that.

The Republicain candidate will prevail in the 2nd round, not Martini LePen.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Valérie Pécresse is running. I understand she will present herself in the LR primary, unlike Xavier Bertrand.

[Flyersfan232]

Count of Paris for president end the fifth republic!

[perpetual_cynic]

Can anyone explain to me what difference there is on the issues between Macron and "Les Republicains"? I realize that four years ago while there was basically zero difference on economic policy or EU policy between Macron and Francois Fillon, but there was a difference on some social issues since Fillon was an Catholic traditionalist anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ fanatic etc... and Macron was more of a "social liberal". But I get the feeling those are now old issues are very unlikely to be championed by anyone else running as the LR presidential candidate.

Which brings me back to my question - are there ANY issues that separate Macron and LR? What would make anyone vote for Bertrand over Macron or vice-versa?  

Some people who are extremely pro-free market I suppose could make an argument against Macron. Although, abortion and gay marriage aren't as big of a deal, Macron pushed the IVF law to open to lesbians and a lot of people in LR opposed it.

[Lord Halifax]

Macron will lose next year, I’m pretty sure about that.

The Republicain candidate will prevail in the 2nd round, not Martini LePen.

why not? drunk Le Pen ("shaken, not stirred") is the best Le Pen.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I still can't see Macron losing. Plus, it seems that people are coming round to him on the vaccine passports - those who aren't are typical perpetually angry French people; if it weren't vaccines they would be angry about something else. I understand the Greens have quite a few anti-vax types so that may shore up Macron's support on the centre-left. Anyway, 8 months is a long way off!

[Geoffrey Howe]

Can anyone see Bruno Retailleau running? That would be a sure way to make LR even more irrelevant.

[Zinneke]

Hidalgo is in too.

There should be a seperate topic for these low energy media-obsessed losers that are throwing their candidacies forward in the hope to get 5-7% at best.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Hidalgo is in too.

There should be a seperate topic for these low energy media-obsessed losers that are throwing their candidacies forward in the hope to get 5-7% at best.

In all the polls I've seen, she loses to Le Pen in the second round. Though I find it highly unlikely she'll get that far.