French presidential election, 2022

[parochial boy]

Also a bunch of left wing figures including notably the standard hate figures of Danielle Obono and Sandrine Rousseau have been the victims of a targeted campaign of harassment, threats etc… and video emerged of armed far right pro Zemmour groupuscules doing « target practice » against various avatars including maghrébins, leftists, Jews and all the usual.

Funny how when it’s « wokism », or the occasional internet outrages that stuff get directed against right wingers and islamophobes it creates media outrages that get picked up even in the international media and even gets it’s own atlas threads. But this sort of stuff; more prevalent, more threatening, an endless stream of news stories and no-one outside of a few independent media outlets ever talks about it or even cares.

But yes, please tell me again how « iel » is the big threat to the republic

[buritobr]

Is it already possible to say that Macron will have one of the places in the runoff and the other place is contested by Pecresse, Le Pen, Zemmour and Melenchon?

[Coldstream]

Is it already possible to say that Macron will have one of the places in the runoff and the other place is contested by Pecresse, Le Pen, Zemmour and Melenchon?

Feels like a pretty optimistic argument from Melenchon to consider he’s got a chance of finishing in the top 2, even top 4 seems unlikely at this point.

[Sir John Johns]

This is really hard to make predictions about the presidential election at the moment.

* Firstly, we aren’t certain about the complete list of the running candidates. A minor candidate being on the ballot or not can matter a lot (imagine if in 2002 Taubira hadn’t run or if Pasqua had his signatures) but there is a slight possibility Zemmour (very controversial, no existing party infrastructure plus LR has no interest seeing him running) or Mélenchon (can no longer count on the support of the PC, at least for now) not making it.


* Secondly, the electorate is becoming more and more fluid (see 2017 when Hamon experienced a massive surge in the aftermath of his nomination before melting for the benefit of Mélenchon) and I have my doubts Pécresse, Le Pen and Zemmour will be all three above 15%: one will probably saw his/her support collapsing during the campaign for the benefit of the two others. There are also many undecided, especially among left-wing voters.


* Thirdly, the ongoing COVID-19 surge is interfering with the campaign with discussions about measures to contain the pandemic hijacking the whole public debate at the expense of other topics and the election campaign itself. Of course, nobody knows for how long this will last. Additionally, if his government really mess things up in its response to the COVID-19, Macron could be found himself in a more fragile position than expected.


* Next, we have no idea about what the turnout will be and a sharp increase in abstention, a bit similar to the one in the last regional elections but not at the extent reached then, can’t been discarded. There are indications that French voters are less interested in the election than five years ago and, IMO, there is a widespread feeling of disappointment towards the political class as a whole and towards the incumbent president in particular.

The changes promised by Macron in term of ethics fails to materialize (a pretty obscure minister has to resign few weeks ago after having been formally sentenced for lying on his assets declaration; the justice minister is currently indicted for ‘illegal taking of interest’; the interior minister remained in charge despite being accused of rape – the case has been dismissed by the justice since; a LREM deputy is currently charged for having harassed his wife and another one is still sitting in the parliament despite being sued for having attacked a PS member with a motorcycle helmet).

Tellingly, a quite sizable share of the LREM deputies are expected to renounce running for reelection due to a mix of disappointment with Macron policies, a feeling they have been totally ignored by the government and the president and a very hostile political atmosphere to which the deputies from the ‘civil society’ were unprepared to deal with (starting really with the Yellow Jackets movement and still ongoing thanks to anti-vaxxers and extremists of all shades, the constituency offices of various LREM legislators have been trashed on a regular basis; elected officials of right and left are now frequently receiving death threats, some have been physically assaulted or being confronted at their homes – the latest ones have been a pro-Macron mayor in a small commune of Normandy having his garage burnt down and pro-Zemmour messages tagged on Marine Le Pen’s house).

Speaking of the Yellow Jackets, nothing came out of the demands for a more democratic practice. This was rapidly buried in the protests under illegible and extravagant demands as the idiots and the extremists took over the declining movement and nobody in the medias nor among the candidates are now discussing that issue (same for the questions of public services in rural France and territorial inequalities). Meanwhile, the designation of random citizens to ‘advice’ the government decided by Macron to calm the protesters turned into a complete farce: the government chose to largely ignore the recommendations issued by the citizen commission on climate (basically accusing its members of having been brainwashed by the scientists consulted by said commission) and nobody has any clue about what happened to the citizen’s commission on vaccination appointed about a year ago.

On the same time, except maybe for Zemmour supporters (but Zemmour is the most rejected political figure in French electorate at large), I don't think that, outside of their more hackish supporters, voters are particularly thrilled for the batch of candidates running against Macron. Clearly Mélenchon and Le Pen have lost some their luster. Pécresse isn't particularly inspiring (too much bourgeois and too much Parisian - well Versaillaise; in some ways, she's isn't that different from Macron) and neither is Jadot.


* And that’s my very personal opinion but I’m under the impression that the mass medias (especially the television whose watcher average age is currently 56.1, up from 54.5 last year but is still the prime media for political debates and communication) have mostly renounced addressing youngest audiences. The public debate, as it currently stands on radio and television, is largely revolving about the obsessions of well-off boomer retirees – on average, French retirees are earning more than younger generations. Hence constant complaints about the alleged decline of the French civilization which can apparently been summed up by Mr. Potato, Pepé Le Pew, Gone With The Wind, French kings’ numerals having to be Roman for people having reading disability and Molière’s texts having to be completely unchanged in educational material aimed at foreigners learning French abroad*. And while there are non-stop attacks against an alleged ‘wokism’ and ‘Islamo-leftism’ in the French university, material and financial problems faced by students and teachers are barely discussed.

Plus you have had in these last months some highly publicized very indecent complaints from boomers whining about how they can no longer afford a comfortable retirement: like Luc Ferry, a TV philosopher and once the worst education minister in French history, who ‘obviously can’t live’ with a €3,000 monthly pension; or a quite famous TV presenter afraid of dying in the street with his ‘very small’ €3,500 monthly pension; or a recent TV reporting that shocked even my parents and my uncle about some retired couple pretending struggling to live with over €2,500 a month. By comparison, the minimal wage is €1,589 and I have to live with €900 a month while far from being the most to be pitied.

All of this is recipe for potential important abstention among youngest voters, something which probably would hurt Mélenchon the most and help Pécresse the most.


*Yes, these are the pseudo-debates (it can’t be called debates when it is such one-sided hysterical discussions) about totally frivolous if not non-existent problems. The worst one was about Gone With The Wind being withdrawn from Netflix for like one week becoming an unacceptable attack on liberties and democracy for ‘philosophers’ spending their time denouncing the ‘import’ of US theories in France. At the exact same time, the French government was busy attempting to curtail the right to protest under the pretext of COVID-19, something that went then largely unreported.

[Coldstream]

This is really hard to make predictions about the presidential election at the moment.

* Firstly, we aren’t certain about the complete list of the running candidates. A minor candidate being on the ballot or not can matter a lot (imagine if in 2002 Taubira hadn’t run or if Pasqua had his signatures) but there is a slight possibility Zemmour (very controversial, no existing party infrastructure plus LR has no interest seeing him running) or Mélenchon (can no longer count on the support of the PC, at least for now) not making it.


* Secondly, the electorate is becoming more and more fluid (see 2017 when Hamon experienced a massive surge in the aftermath of his nomination before melting for the benefit of Mélenchon) and I have my doubts Pécresse, Le Pen and Zemmour will be all three above 15%: one will probably saw his/her support collapsing during the campaign for the benefit of the two others. There are also many undecided, especially among left-wing voters.


* Thirdly, the ongoing COVID-19 surge is interfering with the campaign with discussions about measures to contain the pandemic hijacking the whole public debate at the expense of other topics and the election campaign itself. Of course, nobody knows for how long this will last. Additionally, if his government really mess things up in its response to the COVID-19, Macron could be found himself in a more fragile position than expected.


* Next, we have no idea about what the turnout will be and a sharp increase in abstention, a bit similar to the one in the last regional elections but not at the extent reached then, can’t been discarded. There are indications that French voters are less interested in the election than five years ago and, IMO, there is a widespread feeling of disappointment towards the political class as a whole and towards the incumbent president in particular.

The changes promised by Macron in term of ethics fails to materialize (a pretty obscure minister has to resign few weeks ago after having been formally sentenced for lying on his assets declaration; the justice minister is currently indicted for ‘illegal taking of interest’; the interior minister remained in charge despite being accused of rape – the case has been dismissed by the justice since; a LREM deputy is currently charged for having harassed his wife and another one is still sitting in the parliament despite being sued for having attacked a PS member with a motorcycle helmet).

Tellingly, a quite sizable share of the LREM deputies are expected to renounce running for reelection due to a mix of disappointment with Macron policies, a feeling they have been totally ignored by the government and the president and a very hostile political atmosphere to which the deputies from the ‘civil society’ were unprepared to deal with (starting really with the Yellow Jackets movement and still ongoing thanks to anti-vaxxers and extremists of all shades, the constituency offices of various LREM legislators have been trashed on a regular basis; elected officials of right and left are now frequently receiving death threats, some have been physically assaulted or being confronted at their homes – the latest ones have been a pro-Macron mayor in a small commune of Normandy having his garage burnt down and pro-Zemmour messages tagged on Marine Le Pen’s house).

Speaking of the Yellow Jackets, nothing came out of the demands for a more democratic practice. This was rapidly buried in the protests under illegible and extravagant demands as the idiots and the extremists took over the declining movement and nobody in the medias nor among the candidates are now discussing that issue (same for the questions of public services in rural France and territorial inequalities). Meanwhile, the designation of random citizens to ‘advice’ the government decided by Macron to calm the protesters turned into a complete farce: the government chose to largely ignore the recommendations issued by the citizen commission on climate (basically accusing its members of having been brainwashed by the scientists consulted by said commission) and nobody has any clue about what happened to the citizen’s commission on vaccination appointed about a year ago.

On the same time, except maybe for Zemmour supporters (but Zemmour is the most rejected political figure in French electorate at large), I don't think that, outside of their more hackish supporters, voters are particularly thrilled for the batch of candidates running against Macron. Clearly Mélenchon and Le Pen have lost some their luster. Pécresse isn't particularly inspiring (too much bourgeois and too much Parisian - well Versaillaise; in some ways, she's isn't that different from Macron) and neither is Jadot.


* And that’s my very personal opinion but I’m under the impression that the mass medias (especially the television whose watcher average age is currently 56.1, up from 54.5 last year but is still the prime media for political debates and communication) have mostly renounced addressing youngest audiences. The public debate, as it currently stands on radio and television, is largely revolving about the obsessions of well-off boomer retirees – on average, French retirees are earning more than younger generations. Hence constant complaints about the alleged decline of the French civilization which can apparently been summed up by Mr. Potato, Pepé Le Pew, Gone With The Wind, French kings’ numerals having to be Roman for people having reading disability and Molière’s texts having to be completely unchanged in educational material aimed at foreigners learning French abroad*. And while there are non-stop attacks against an alleged ‘wokism’ and ‘Islamo-leftism’ in the French university, material and financial problems faced by students and teachers are barely discussed.

Plus you have had in these last months some highly publicized very indecent complaints from boomers whining about how they can no longer afford a comfortable retirement: like Luc Ferry, a TV philosopher and once the worst education minister in French history, who ‘obviously can’t live’ with a €3,000 monthly pension; or a quite famous TV presenter afraid of dying in the street with his ‘very small’ €3,500 monthly pension; or a recent TV reporting that shocked even my parents and my uncle about some retired couple pretending struggling to live with over €2,500 a month. By comparison, the minimal wage is €1,589 and I have to live with €900 a month while far from being the most to be pitied.

All of this is recipe for potential important abstention among youngest voters, something which probably would hurt Mélenchon the most and help Pécresse the most.


*Yes, these are the pseudo-debates (it can’t be called debates when it is such one-sided hysterical discussions) about totally frivolous if not non-existent problems. The worst one was about Gone With The Wind being withdrawn from Netflix for like one week becoming an unacceptable attack on liberties and democracy for ‘philosophers’ spending their time denouncing the ‘import’ of US theories in France. At the exact same time, the French government was busy attempting to curtail the right to protest under the pretext of COVID-19, something that went then largely unreported.

Is there not an argument that Zemmour pulls votes away from Le Pen boosting the odds for Pecresse to get in to round 2? This is to my knowledge the first time since Penelopegate that the Republicans have polled like they are going to get in to the runoff. Though I agree that one of Zemmour/Pecresse will crater and their support go to the other/Le Pen.

[Zinneke]

I think sir John John's gave a very good rundown, I would highlight though that although Macron has his fair share of what the French would call casseroles (the biggest one, that everybody has forgotten about, being Benalla), compared to his 2 predecessors he has been able to maintain a fairly innocent image. In the end that makes him already on better standing that Sarkozy and Hollande.

[buritobr]

It's very hard to have a favorite candidate in this election.
There are Macron, the far-right candidates, and the best performing left-wing candidate, Melenchon, supported protests against the vaccine pass.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's very hard to have a favorite candidate in this election.
There are Macron, the far-right candidates, and the best performing left-wing candidate, Melenchon, supported protests against the vaccine pass.

#HidalgoOrBust

[Zinneke]

It's very hard to have a favorite candidate in this election.
There are Macron, the far-right candidates, and the best performing left-wing candidate, Melenchon, supported protests against the vaccine pass.

#HidalgoOrBust

Low energy!

[Continential]

Why is Taubira polling better than every other center-left candidate?

[PSOL]

It's very hard to have a favorite candidate in this election.
There are Macron, the far-right candidates, and the best performing left-wing candidate, Melenchon, supported protests against the vaccine pass.

You could just split the ticket and vote LFI for parliament, which is more varied as it is a coalition of collectives, and vote for better candidates like Kasib, Potou, or Arthaud.

[parochial boy]

It's very hard to have a favorite candidate in this election.
There are Macron, the far-right candidates, and the best performing left-wing candidate, Melenchon, supported protests against the vaccine pass.

You could just split the ticket and vote LFI for parliament, which is more varied as it is a coalition of collectives, and vote for better candidates like Kasib, Potou, or Arthaud.

It's a very long shot that all three make it - all the more so with the ah-ha-ha NPA split and as it seems as if mayors are becoming increasingly reluctant to sign for anyone at all. And LO are famously kind of a cult. I would still basically do that tbf, Poutou has no hope, but in a world where the left candidates are all dreadful on a personal level and have no hope of making a second round, might as well vote for the guy who at least is a decent person and knowing that a solid score for him has the chance of moving the overton window in the right direction a little bit. There are some decent people on LFI too, even if Jonluk himself is too much of a prick to be worth supporting.

The biggest problem there is the impact on the legislatives - as the various first round results are going to have an impact on what eventual alliances get formed; the party of whichever left candidate does best (or best out of EELV and the PS) is going to be in a position of force with regards to which parties are even present in which circonscriptions.

[Conservatopia]

Is there anywhere where we can find out how many signatures the various candidates have?

[MaxQue]

Is there anywhere where we can find out how many signatures the various candidates have?

It will be on the Conseil Constitutionnel website once the process has began (the signature period being between ten weeks before the first turn and the 6th Friday before the first turn). So it should be from the week of January 31st to March 4th. Note the exact date will be determined by a decree of Macron.

Note a wierd quick of the system is that mayors are sending themselves their signatures to the Conseil, so some people who are not candidates will get signatures.

[Estrella]

The FF liberal progressive Macron that "I EU" people stanned in 2017 obviously doesn't exist anymore (if he ever did at all), but even today's Macron still has his moments. It's great to see him #trigger the right people once in a while, like with this:

French far-right wants EU flag off Arc de Triomphe

PARIS, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Far-right leader Marine Le Pen protested on Saturday against the placing of a European Union flag on the Arc de Triomphe for the start of Paris' six-month presidency of the bloc.

"To adorn the Arc de Triomphe with the sole colours of the European Union, without the presence of a national flag, is a real attack on our nation's identity, because this monument honours our military victories and houses the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier," she said in a statement.

There was no immediate comment from the pro-EU Macron, whom Le Pen accused of giving a "direct order" to hang the flag.

[Zinneke]

The FF liberal progressive Macron that "I EU" people stanned in 2017 obviously doesn't exist anymore (if he ever did at all), but even today's Macron still has his moments. It's great to see him #trigger the right people once in a while, like with this:

French far-right wants EU flag off Arc de Triomphe

PARIS, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Far-right leader Marine Le Pen protested on Saturday against the placing of a European Union flag on the Arc de Triomphe for the start of Paris' six-month presidency of the bloc.

"To adorn the Arc de Triomphe with the sole colours of the European Union, without the presence of a national flag, is a real attack on our nation's identity, because this monument honours our military victories and houses the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier," she said in a statement.

There was no immediate comment from the pro-EU Macron, whom Le Pen accused of giving a "direct order" to hang the flag.

He has removed it already, because the snowflake Right were outraged.

[Sir John Johns]

The far-right wasn’t the only one wanting EU flag off Arc de Triomphe.

Here’s the horseshoe theory at work with Antoine Léaument, the guy in charge of digital communication in Mélenchon’s campaign team, retweeting Pécresse. The LR presidential candidate was ‘only’ demanding to add the French flag next to the EU one because the erasing of the French identity and yada yada but the LFI guy was asking for the complete removal of the EU flag (described as ‘this horror’) to get ‘the homeland’s flag’ back.

https://twitter.com/ALeaument/status/1477041565306703879

Meanwhile, LFI deputy Bastien Lachaud was calling the EU flag under the Arc de Triomphe a ‘mistake’ which is enabling ‘Pétainists like Zemmour to pass as patriots’ and stating the Unknown Soldier ‘didn’t died for Brussels’.

As a side note, Lachaud is currently sued for ‘illicit supply of workers, forgery, fraud and attempted fraud’ as part of the investigations on irregularities in Mélenchon’s 2017 presidential campaign and has been additionally sentenced to a €6,000 fine for the infamous raid on the LFI headquarters when he and other high officials of the party confronted the police.

https://twitter.com/LachaudB/status/1477284280577544198

Mélenchon himself used this opportunity to start the year with some rambling against ‘the European Marian flag’ (he is obsessed with that; note that Léaument has claimed that the EU flag should be removed because it is a symbol of religious origin and, as such, an infringement on laïcité) and ‘Beethoven’s hymn’ which have been withdrawn from Lisbon Treaty by Sarkozy and with attacks on ‘the Macronist caprices disregarding the sense of symbols’.

https://twitter.com/JLMelenchon/status/1477373280516460544

That just one week or so after he posted on his Facebook account (but not elsewhere in the Internet) alleged ‘revelations on the vaccine passport planned by the European Commission since 2019, before the pandemic’ with a video featuring Sophia Chikirou, his communication advisor (and presumed partner even if Jean-Luc has clarified she isn’t ‘in the fiscal sense of the term’; Chikirou was still in Mélenchon’s private apartment when the police came there in the early morning for a search). The ‘revelations’ were actually fake news dating back from one year ago previously also spread by Philippe de Villiers. Chikirou is herself currently investigated for presumed overcharges in favor of her communication firm during Mélenchon’s last presidential campaign and has produced a ‘documentary’ denouncing the ‘lawfare’ against Mélenchon.


Anyway, if the government is to believe, the flag was planned to flaw under the Arc de Triomphe for the 31 December and 1 January. Its withdrawal has enabled Le Pen to celebrate a ‘beautiful patriotic victory’ and to thank ‘the massive mobilization of all loving France and the Republic’ which has forced Macron to step back.

https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1477565635211235331

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/fredericsays/status/1477932642981105665?s=21

A lot of "Jeb!" vibes from Pécresse tbh.

[Lord Halifax]

Mélenchon himself used this opportunity to start the year with some rambling against ‘the European Marian flag’ (he is obsessed with that; note that Léaument has claimed that the EU flag should be removed because it is a symbol of religious origin and, as such, an infringement on laïcité)

WTF

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Melenchon is a disgusting person. Would never root for him under any circumstances (unless he faces Zemmour).

Is it already possible to say that Macron will have one of the places in the runoff and the other place is contested by Pecresse, Le Pen, Zemmour and Melenchon?

Feels like a pretty optimistic argument from Melenchon to consider he’s got a chance of finishing in the top 2, even top 4 seems unlikely at this point.

It's likelier he will finish below 5% than get to the top 2. He got his chance in 2017. Problem is that Jadot isn't better than Melenchon and is likely together with Melenchon the only one who has a shot at finishing above 5% (and maybe Hidalgo but wouldn't place bets on that).

[xelas81]

Mélenchon himself used this opportunity to start the year with some rambling against ‘the European Marian flag’ (he is obsessed with that; note that Léaument has claimed that the EU flag should be removed because it is a symbol of religious origin and, as such, an infringement on laïcité)

WTF

Surprisingly, people have claimed Marian connections in the past.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Europe#Marian_interpretation

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mélenchon himself used this opportunity to start the year with some rambling against ‘the European Marian flag’ (he is obsessed with that; note that Léaument has claimed that the EU flag should be removed because it is a symbol of religious origin and, as such, an infringement on laïcité)

WTF

These people are not exactly entirely sane.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Mélenchon himself used this opportunity to start the year with some rambling against ‘the European Marian flag’ (he is obsessed with that; note that Léaument has claimed that the EU flag should be removed because it is a symbol of religious origin and, as such, an infringement on laïcité)

WTF

These people are not exactly entirely sane.

You have to be a little insane to want to be President of France, but these days...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It's very hard to have a favorite candidate in this election.
There are Macron, the far-right candidates, and the best performing left-wing candidate, Melenchon, supported protests against the vaccine pass.

It's a disgusting field, and in fact the youth is being discriminated against, as in a lot of western countries but seeing the post here above a few posts above in fact, we need a "big shock" in order to win our rights. It's not okay that retirees earn more money than younger generations who cannot even afford to pay a housing... than they become racist because the housing all go to refugees and immigrants (and 14 of the 15 names have a foreign sounding name) - which is exactly what they tell me.

Like it is disgusting that Pecresse is now the main contendor to beat Macron. Come on... have we all lost our mind.

[xelas81]

It's very hard to have a favorite candidate in this election.
There are Macron, the far-right candidates, and the best performing left-wing candidate, Melenchon, supported protests against the vaccine pass.

It's a disgusting field, and in fact the youth is being discriminated against, as in a lot of western countries but seeing the post here above a few posts above in fact, we need a "big shock" in order to win our rights. It's not okay that retirees earn more money than younger generations who cannot even afford to pay a housing... than they become racist because the housing all go to refugees and immigrants (and 14 of the 15 names have a foreign sounding name) - which is exactly what they tell me.

Like it is disgusting that Pecresse is now the main contendor to beat Macron. Come on... have we all lost our mind.

Question: why do older voters dominate French political discourse?
Answer:
 

Note that young people are not responsible for this problem.