French presidential election, 2022

[Former President tack50]

Dupont-Aignan desperately trying to relaunch his candidacy by renewing his asinine project (he previously described it, of course, as 'a common sense measure') worthy of the worst Latin American demagogues of building a bagne (penal colony like those in Guyana and New Caledonia until the 1930s) in the Kerguélen Islands to jail sentenced Islamist terrorists. This has apparently seriously discussed on CNEWS yesterday...

Dispersing members of terrorist organizations is nothing new; at least here in Spain we did it repeatedly against ETA members, so they could not organize in jail. (and indeed one of the demands of modern Basque nationalism is that because ETA is no longer a thing, they should be sent to the Basque Country).

Though creating a Guantanamo Bay style jail in the Kerguelen Islands of all places is beyond stupid.

I could easily buy dispersing terrorism members all throughout metropolitan France; hell possibly even sending them to places like Corsica, French Guyana or Guadaloupe/Martinique. But sending them to the frigging Kerguelen islands is nonsense, especially given they are uninhabited.

[parochial boy]

He wants to grand remplace the penguins. Sad.

[H. Ross Peron]

It is also fascinating to see that the only people the candidacy of Communist Fabien Roussel seems to seduce are right-wingers (who would of course never vote for him) with pro-police, pro-‘laïcité’, pro-nuclear (‘most profitable energy’ ignoring the still unfinished Flamanville EPR with its so far twelve-year delay and its €19.1 billion overcost) and now pro-cruel hunting practices stances.

I dislike extreme laicite (esp in the current context), but going by this thread and his (google translated) French Wikipedia article, Roussel seems like the least obnoxious French Presidential candidate. Knowing where we are, I'm sure the likelihood of him saying something anti-Semitic etc. is high and I may have to eat my own words.

[DL]

Do people think Macron would prefer a run off against LePen or a runoff against Zemmour? Who would be easier for him to beat by a wide margin? What would be the longterm implications for French politics and for the legislative elections is LePen failed to make the run-off?

[Oryxslayer]

Do people think Macron would prefer a run off against LePen or a runoff against Zemmour? Who would be easier to beat by a wide margin.

Weirdly polls suggest Zemmour is defeated by a wider margin ATM.

[DL]

Do people think Macron would prefer a run off against LePen or a runoff against Zemmour? Who would be easier to beat by a wide margin.

Weirdly polls suggest Zemmour is defeated by a wider margin ATM.

Why do you say "weirdly"? That doesn't surprise me at all. He seems even more extreme and unhinged than LePen and on top of that LePen has made some effort to appeal to working class voters by having a bit of "socially conservative, economically populist" positioning that features way more government largesse etc... From what i have read Zemmour is more of an orthodox free party rightwinger who wants massive cuts and austerity - surely there are a lot of LePen voters who would find that very unappealing

[Biden 2024]

Have any notable (former) elected officials indicated support for Zemmour?

[Geoffrey Howe]

The Mayor of Béziers is pledged to Marine Le Pen but is calling for whichever is in front by a certain point to stand down in favour of the other, and will support Zemmour if he is that one.

[Sir John Johns]

Deputy from Alpes-Maritimes and candidate for the LR presidential nomination, Éric Ciotti, has indicated he would vote for Zemmour over Macron in a hypothetical runoff (then, Ciotti said few months ago what is separating the LR from the RN is 'the ability to govern').

It is also fascinating to see that the only people the candidacy of Communist Fabien Roussel seems to seduce are right-wingers (who would of course never vote for him) with pro-police, pro-‘laïcité’, pro-nuclear (‘most profitable energy’ ignoring the still unfinished Flamanville EPR with its so far twelve-year delay and its €19.1 billion overcost) and now pro-cruel hunting practices stances.

I dislike extreme laicite (esp in the current context), but going by this thread and his (google translated) French Wikipedia article, Roussel seems like the least obnoxious French Presidential candidate. Knowing where we are, I'm sure the likelihood of him saying something anti-Semitic etc. is high and I may have to eat my own words.

Well, no I don't think so. For all his flaws, Roussel isn't actually pandering to the conspirationist crowd (there is already Mélenchon for that) and has, as far as I know, abstain from making racist, xenophobic or antisemitic comments. He must be actually credited for having a strong and clear attitude on the COVID-19 issue, supporting the vaccination campaign and vaccine passport when others on the left (Mélenchon or Taubira) have chosen to adopt more ambiguous and questionable stances (Taubira refused to openly call French Guyana residents to get vaccinated; Mélenchon has firstly supported Didier Raoult, then questioned the efficiency of the Pfizer vaccine while pushing for the use of Chinese, Russian and Cuban vaccines and is now finding all sorts of excuses to oppose the vaccine pass).

The problem is his participation of a protest of policemen - also attended by Zemmour, the Interior Minister Darmanin himself, Olivier Faure and Jadot - in front of the National Assembly in last May to demand tougher penalties against offenders (when new laws going that way - also true for terrorism since 2015 - have been debated and passed in parliament on a very regular basis since more than twenty years and are clearly solving nothing; problem isn't the legal texts, it is the underfunding of police and justice and the overcrowding of courts, to which can be added the lack of training for policemen whose recruitment criteria have been lowered over year, the Interior Ministry systematically covering police brutality, poor relations with population especially in banlieues and the policy of targets introduced by Sarkozy), his call for a stricter immigration policy, his gratuitous and pretty silly attacks against the animal welfare positions of Jadot and his latest declaration in support of traditional hunting methods (use of cages, traps and nets to capture or kill birds without regard to specie) ruled illegal by the EU but the Macron government chose to re-allow for pure electoral reasons (the very recently prohibited birdlime isn't apparently concerned) which he said are opposed by 'patronizing intellectuals giving lessons' (when a lot of people in the countryside can't stand the practices of some hunters who enter private properties, shoot domestic animals or protected species, hinder families to walk safely next to the woods and can be incredibly violent like wild bird conservancy advocate Allain Bougrain-Dubourg can attest having been routinely insulted, threatened and physically assaulted when denouncing illegal hunting). This is also quite rich coming from a PCF apparatchik and journalist, the son of a PCF apparatchik and journalist; his predecessor, Pierre Laurent, had a very similar profile, quite indicative of the problems faced by the Communist Party.

Basically, Roussel is kind of following the strategy of Georges Marchais in 1981 (this one was openly xenophobic and contributed to further accelerate the electoral decline of the PCF but has ironically turned Marchais into a hero of today’s French far-right), a pretty risky gamble: he can finish liquidated the Communist support in the Red Belt (the PC lost in June the presidency of Val-de-Marne, the last département it controlled) without making significant inroads among rural, banlieue pavillonaire and declining industrial bassins voters. But, for now, he is barely discussed in the medias and is polling way below the 5% threshold to get his campaign refunded.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/Steppe79375172/status/1450865009026899970?t=i9D2ExQDUcuMXsEZ...

Apparently Genghis Khan caused the fall of the Roman Empire according to Zemmour.

(Thinkerview btw is an interesting media phenomenon, in that the guy hosting it is clearly a Russian asset but is symptomatic of some kind of "grassroots counter-revolution" against the real journalistic classes and thus gets a lot of hits. It's a shame because the format itself is not bad if it weren't for the interviewers tone.)

[CumbrianLefty]

Does that mean Zemmour's into this "New Chronology" lark?

[Coldstream]

Is anyone besides Hidalgo, PS or otherwise, running in the socialist primary? Not that it matters much in the grand scheme of things.

[MaxQue]

Is anyone besides Hidalgo, PS or otherwise, running in the socialist primary? Not that it matters much in the grand scheme of things.

The socialist primary was last weekend and she beated Le Foll, agriculture minister under Hollande, who then refused to endorse her.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is anyone besides Hidalgo, PS or otherwise, running in the socialist primary? Not that it matters much in the grand scheme of things.

The socialist primary was last weekend and she beated Le Foll, agriculture minister under Hollande, who then refused to endorse her.

Ah, the French left, epitomizing the Fraternity in "Liberty, Equality, Fraternity" to the T.

[Sir John Johns]

Stéphane Le Foll, the mayor of Le Mans and a Hollande loyalist, who is at odd with the party's first secretary Olivier Faure was trounced by Hidalgo in the aforementioned internal primary  (in which only members can vote as, like LR, the PS no longer wants to hear about open primaries), receiving 28% of the votes against 72% for the mayor of Paris. Le Foll is claiming, not without reason, the process was biased against him, denouncing notably the absence of a public debate with Hidalgo, hence why he would not campaigned for her. Nevertheless, he would not have been selected in any case, being associated with the unpopular Hollande, being not particularly well-known with French voters at large and, is he have at least a platform? I think he mostly positions himself to take control of what will remain of the ruins of the PS in case Hidalgo suffer a heavy defeat (which will be blamed on Faure who has traded his continuation as head of the PS against a support for the Hidalgo candidacy). Rumors Hidalgo could be 'convinced' to withdraw from the race and endorse Jadot in case her candidacy doesn't gain traction.

Apparently, the Radical Party of the Left (PRG), which has reappeared after the failure of the reunification with the (center-right) Radical Party and should not be confused with the Left-Wing Radicals, created by opponents to the aforementioned reunification (yes, the center under Macron is even more ridiculous than the 1970s French far-left), is according to this Le Monde headlines 'denouncing the multiplication of candidacies and reserving the opportunity to field its own  candidate in case the rally [of the left] remains impossible'. Its members will decided next Saturday whether running its own candidate or not. Anyway, the PRG seems to be a mere shadow of its former self (which was already not particularly relevant on national stage) and, unless it really wants to waste money in a quixotic campaign, it will not field a candidate (they have nobody even remotely known) but is more interested into negotiating constituencies with more important parties (the PS is the historical partner).

In the daily idiot electoral promises challenge, Valérie Pécresse, after having announced that if elected she would reduce by 150,000 the number of public servants in 'administering administration', has changed her mind few hours later and settled on the number of 'near 200,000'. Éric Ciotti announced few hours later he would reduce the number of public servants by 250,000.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Fillon wanted to get rid of 500,000 IIRC, so that's at least one area in which they're moving to the left.

[Cassius]

Is anyone besides Hidalgo, PS or otherwise, running in the socialist primary? Not that it matters much in the grand scheme of things.

The socialist primary was last weekend and she beated Le Foll, agriculture minister under Hollande, who then refused to endorse her.

Ah, the French left, epitomizing the Fraternity in "Liberty, Equality, Fraternity" to the T.

I mean she’s not technically a frater, so it’s all good.

Also, I hear tell that Barnier is now, apparently, the favourite for the LR nomination? Is he likely to do any better than Bertrand or Pécresse (he seems to be polling a bit behind them in putative match ups for the Presidential election)?

[Zinneke]

Is anyone besides Hidalgo, PS or otherwise, running in the socialist primary? Not that it matters much in the grand scheme of things.

The socialist primary was last weekend and she beated Le Foll, agriculture minister under Hollande, who then refused to endorse her.

Ah, the French left, epitomizing the Fraternity in "Liberty, Equality, Fraternity" to the T.

I mean she’s not technically a frater, so it’s all good.

Also, I hear tell that Barnier is now, apparently, the favourite for the LR nomination? Is he likely to do any better than Bertrand or Pécresse (he seems to be polling a bit behind them in putative match ups for the Presidential election)?

I am not even sure he is favorite now. He is back in the game due to the selection process now being a closed circuit so the media chatter was very pro-Barnier. But the polls show Bertrand to be the best candidate and I think the LR rank and file might swallow their oversize pride because they must surely be sweating profusely at the scenario where Macron wins the Presidency and the Philippe led re-foundational center-right pro-Macron gang essentially vaporise the LR. Even if they don't win the presidency they need momentum because the legislatives might actually up for grabs for a number of people, and like the Left the traditional Right will want to place themselves as the number 1 opposition.

Stéphane Le Foll, the mayor of Le Mans and a Hollande loyalist, who is at odd with the party's first secretary Olivier Faure was trounced by Hidalgo in the aforementioned internal primary  (in which only members can vote as, like LR, the PS no longer wants to hear about open primaries), receiving 28% of the votes against 72% for the mayor of Paris. Le Foll is claiming, not without reason, the process was biased against him, denouncing notably the absence of a public debate with Hidalgo, hence why he would not campaigned for her. Nevertheless, he would not have been selected in any case, being associated with the unpopular Hollande, being not particularly well-known with French voters at large and, is he have at least a platform? I think he mostly positions himself to take control of what will remain of the ruins of the PS in case Hidalgo suffer a heavy defeat (which will be blamed on Faure who has traded his continuation as head of the PS against a support for the Hidalgo candidacy). Rumors Hidalgo could be 'convinced' to withdraw from the race and endorse Jadot in case her candidacy doesn't gain traction.

Apparently, the Radical Party of the Left (PRG), which has reappeared after the failure of the reunification with the (center-right) Radical Party and should not be confused with the Left-Wing Radicals, created by opponents to the aforementioned reunification (yes, the center under Macron is even more ridiculous than the 1970s French far-left), is according to this Le Monde headlines 'denouncing the multiplication of candidacies and reserving the opportunity to field its own  candidate in case the rally [of the left] remains impossible'. Its members will decided next Saturday whether running its own candidate or not. Anyway, the PRG seems to be a mere shadow of its former self (which was already not particularly relevant on national stage) and, unless it really wants to waste money in a quixotic campaign, it will not field a candidate (they have nobody even remotely known) but is more interested into negotiating constituencies with more important parties (the PS is the historical partner).

I'm not sure where Nouvelle Donne (another ''centrist'' outfit, although for me they are not cadres or clientelists like the PR/PRG and have some good economic policies) fit into this but their leader was on the radio about 2 weeks ago saying that there was this popular initiative by young activists to organise a primary even without candidates consent, and that he was the only one for the moment but that he expected, once other formations realised that they are leading a hopeless cause, to sign up to this primary initiative.


Macron btw is complaining that his Ministers are writing too many books and not actually working. If his administration wins another term it will be a living embodiment of the idea that in the land of the blind the one eyed is king.

[DL]

Would actually matter in terms of the medium prospects of the parties etc... whether Macron faces LePen or Zemmour in the second round?

Although the RN has almost no seats due to the electoral system, they are a factor in legislative elections, while Zemmour has no party at all. If LePen failed to qualify for the second ballot I'm just wondering if that would be seen as a major humiliation for the RN and cause them to bleed support in the legislative elections - not sure who would benefit from that?

I'm also curious whether LePen and Zemmour would each endorse the other in a a second round against Macron or is there too much bad blood and rivalry between them for that to ever happen?

[Zinneke]

Mélenchon had his latest antisemitic outburst (posting it before a certain other one does because its his favorite pinyata).

Un procès que le leader de la France Insoumise a récusé, avec un argumentaire qui l'a exposé à de très vives critiques. «Il reproduit beaucoup de scénarios culturels (du judaïsme) : “on ne change rien à la tradition, on ne bouge pas, oh mon dieu la créolisation quelle horreur...” Et tout ça, ce sont des traditions qui sont beaucoup liées au judaïsme. Ça a ses mérites, ça lui a permis de survivre dans l'histoire...», a cru bon de plaider le député LFI du Sud-Est.

Really sad that this clown gets the most exposure out of the Left candidates because of his role as useful idiot for the Establishment and the far right.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Mélenchon had his latest antisemitic outburst (posting it before a certain other one does because its his favorite pinyata).

Un procès que le leader de la France Insoumise a récusé, avec un argumentaire qui l'a exposé à de très vives critiques. «Il reproduit beaucoup de scénarios culturels (du judaïsme) : “on ne change rien à la tradition, on ne bouge pas, oh mon dieu la créolisation quelle horreur...” Et tout ça, ce sont des traditions qui sont beaucoup liées au judaïsme. Ça a ses mérites, ça lui a permis de survivre dans l'histoire...», a cru bon de plaider le député LFI du Sud-Est.

Really sad that this clown gets the most exposure out of the Left candidates because of his role as useful idiot for the Establishment and the far right.

If i were French or had voting rights, i would not vote for Melenchon in the first round, far better candidates. I like Hidalgo and Roussel the most.

I don't like Macron a lot because of his foreign policy recently (the submarine discussion, now the fishing rights of British people). But i'd not vote for Zemmour as a vote against Macron. Macron - Le Pen i'm more unsure of who i would support. I actually dislike both Zemmour, Macron, Le Pen and the LR candidate, but i'd probably give Le Pen most the benefit of the doubt out of those four.

Melenchon has an enormous ego, an enormous ego and is a disgusting person, even if i'm far-left myself. At this point, if i would vote for him, i would have to hold my nose and it would be a lesser evil of the evil votes, but Melenchon will never get to the second round, and he wouldn't get my vote in the first one.

And at this point, i'd be very unsure whether i would prefer Melenchon or Le Pen, or Melenchon or Macron or Macron or Le Pen. Macron also has a enormous ego. It seems to be typical of the French nation nowadays. He treats African leaders also disrespectfully, sometimes in a Trumpian way.

First round: likely two options left: Hidalgo (PS) or Roussel (PCF), as Jadot... the other left-wing candidate - surprise, surprise - has an enormous ego as well. Probably the reason why the left cannot unite in France, is because of Melenchon, Jadot and radical trotskyist/communist alliances.

PS/PCF are the only two left-wing parties that can cooperate, but they have image and reputation problems, PCF because it's a remnant of the past and nowhere near as relevant as one would like it to be, and PS because of disappointing performances and disappointing presidents in the pasts, as well as the ongoing trends and culture war in Europe.

[Zinneke]

Jadot has such an enormous ego he decided not to run last time and be a team player...but yeah any left-wing NGO type has an "enormous ego". they are the favorite whipping boys of both left and right now but we'll miss them when they are gone and all is left is cynicism on the Right and generic Stakhanovite workerist discourse on the Left, the bobos will just be wearing dungarees instead of Amnesty badges out of solidarity.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Mélenchon had his latest antisemitic outburst (posting it before a certain other one does because its his favorite pinyata).

Un procès que le leader de la France Insoumise a récusé, avec un argumentaire qui l'a exposé à de très vives critiques. «Il reproduit beaucoup de scénarios culturels (du judaïsme) : “on ne change rien à la tradition, on ne bouge pas, oh mon dieu la créolisation quelle horreur...” Et tout ça, ce sont des traditions qui sont beaucoup liées au judaïsme. Ça a ses mérites, ça lui a permis de survivre dans l'histoire...», a cru bon de plaider le député LFI du Sud-Est.

Really sad that this clown gets the most exposure out of the Left candidates because of his role as useful idiot for the Establishment and the far right.

What'd he say?

[Zinneke]

Mélenchon had his latest antisemitic outburst (posting it before a certain other one does because its his favorite pinyata).

Un procès que le leader de la France Insoumise a récusé, avec un argumentaire qui l'a exposé à de très vives critiques. «Il reproduit beaucoup de scénarios culturels (du judaïsme) : “on ne change rien à la tradition, on ne bouge pas, oh mon dieu la créolisation quelle horreur...” Et tout ça, ce sont des traditions qui sont beaucoup liées au judaïsme. Ça a ses mérites, ça lui a permis de survivre dans l'histoire...», a cru bon de plaider le député LFI du Sud-Est.

Really sad that this clown gets the most exposure out of the Left candidates because of his role as useful idiot for the Establishment and the far right.

What'd he say?

He said that Zemmour's reactionary and anti-mixity views were linked to (Zemmour's) Judaism. I'm bastardising the argument somewhat. But how can you criticise Zemmour's argument that Arabs cannot respect social contracts with other cultures and then say it's engrained in Judaism to not mix with others?

[parochial boy]

He seems to actually be getting quite a big negative reaction from the online left over this. Including kind of very visible frustration from some fairly high profile types who would have been firmly in his camp until a few months ago. I'm not going to say that he's well on the way to KO'ing himself with these repeat outbursts, but he's a long, long way from being able to galvanise the enthusiasm of 2017.

I mean, who's he trying to win over with this sort of stuff - it's not even about Palestine, and the Alain Soral and Dieudonné fans club are never going to vote for you Jonluk.