1968

[WalterMitty]

in the summer of 1968, the republicans nominate former vice president, richard nixon.  nixon rather easily beat liberal new york governor nelson rockefeller in the primaries.  george romney, the michigan governor and former auto executive, beat himself earlier in the year by declaring he was brainwashed on  the vietnam war.

at the convention, most expect nixon to pick nelson rockefeller as his running mate.  while continuing to insist he isnt interested, most expect rockefeller to accept the vp slot if offered.

nixon was never fond of rocky.  he detested his eastern elitist attitude. however, he respceted riockfeller's aptitude and knew he represented a treasure trove of moderate republican votes in new york and new england.

nixon was preparing to offer rockefeller the place on the ticket.  nixon had gone so far as start to change his residency back to california from new york, as to make acceptable to place the new yorker rockefeller on the ticket.

at the last minute, nixon gets a phone call from conservative calfornia governor ronald reagan.  reagan pleads with nixon not to select the liberal rockefeller.  governor reagan insists that a rockefeller selection would almost gaurantee a third party candidacy from conservative southern democrat, george wallace, which would all but doom nixon's chances of being elected.

nixon admires reagan, especially in contrast to rockefeller.  nixon promises to re-think the rockefeller selection and promises to contact him back by the end of the day.

when nixon calls reagan back, he informs he will not select rockefeller after all.  "great", reagan replies, "who do you have in mind?"

nixon then asks reagan  if he is interested in joining the ticket.  reagan hesitates.  he explains he is only two years into his term as governor.  nixon assures him that inexperience will not be an issue.

reagan accepts.  the convention nominates the nixon/reagan ticket.

privately, nelson rockefeller is fuming...

[WalterMitty]

after being snubbed by nixon, rockefeller leaves the convention and seriously considers a third party bid for the presidency.

he talks it over with his friend and fellow governor, george romney.  rockefeller  says if he runs, hed like romney to be his running mate.

both flirt with the idea of the third party for about a week.  finally it becomes evident that the support just isnt there for a rockefeller/romney independent bid.

meanwhile, with the selection of the conservative reagan on the republican ticket, george wallace announces that he will not be a third party candidate for president and instead endorses the nixon/reagan ticket.

at the democrat convention in chicago, violence breaks out.  police brutality is shown on tv sets nationwide.  the convention selects vice president hubert humphrey as its nominee.

humphrey offers the vp slot to maine senator ed muskie.  muskie refuses the offer.   privately, muskie does not believe humphrey will win and muskie wants to save his 1972 presidential prospects by staying off a losing ticket.

after meeting with advisors, humphrey has an interesting idea...why not offer the running mate spot to nelson rockefeller?  his aides like the idea and encourage humphrey to call rockefeller and offer him the position.

to the surprise of everyone, including humphrey, rockefeller accepts.  many democrats at the convention are reluctant to nominate a life-long republican.  but he wins the nomination for vp without serious opposition.

how does this race shape up?  maps?

[True Democrat]

280-258 Nixon

Maybe Ohio would decide it.

[Lincoln Republican]

Excellent story and scenario, Walter.  Very interesting.

In this particular match up, I can't see the liberal ticket of Humphrey and Rockefeller making any headway at all in the south.  With Wallace out, Nixon and Reagan sweep the south.  Nixon and Reagan as well almost sweep the plains, mountain, and western states, with the exceptions of Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii. 

Reagan's presence on the ticket solidifies the Republican wins in the plains, mountain and western states, in particular the crucial state of California.

Humphrey and Rockefeller sweep the northeast, and do well in the upper midwest, as well as 3 western states as noted.

I do not see this decision by Humphrey to get Rockefeller on the ticket and the acceptance by Rockefeller as a winning strategy for the Democrats.

I see this as a comfortable win for Nixon and Reagan. 

Nixon/Reagan                  301
Humphrey/Rockefeller      237

[CPT MikeyMike]

Excellent story and scenario, Walter.  Very interesting.

In this particular match up, I can't see the liberal ticket of Humphrey and Rockefeller making any headway at all in the south.  With Wallace out, Nixon and Reagan sweep the south.  Nixon and Reagan as well almost sweep the plains, mountain, and western states, with the exceptions of Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii. 

Reagan's presence on the ticket solidifies the Republican wins in the plains, mountain and western states, in particular the crucial state of California.

Humphrey and Rockefeller sweep the northeast, and do well in the upper midwest, as well as 3 western states as noted.

I do not see this decision by Humphrey to get Rockefeller on the ticket and the acceptance by Rockefeller as a winning strategy for the Democrats.

I see this as a comfortable win for Nixon and Reagan. 

Nixon/Reagan                  301
Humphrey/Rockefeller      237

I agree except ME, NH and VT go to Nixon, with Nixon getting at lease 60% in NH and VT. Those were hardcore GOP states back then.

[Lincoln Republican]

Yes, that's true, they were solid GOP states at that time.

It's a shame they still weren't.

But I gave them to Humphrey with Rockefeller on the ticket thinking Rockefeller's influence may be able to swing them.

But you're right, they would have gone to the GOP.     

[True Democrat]

Yes, that's true, they were solid GOP states at that time.

It's a shame they still weren't.

But I gave them to Humphrey with Rockefeller on the ticket thinking Rockefeller's influence may be able to swing them.

But you're right, they would have gone to the GOP.     

Your map is looked like it's based on 1988, not 1968.

[Lincoln Republican]

Well, this is how I see these two tickets playing out in 1968. 

Besides, my map is FAIRLY close to yours.

[WalterMitty]

ok guys, just for fun, lets change the scenario a little.

lets say rockefeller does bolt the gop and forms his own indy ticket with george romney after his rebuke at the gop convention.

how would that race shape up?

nixon/reagan (r)
humphrey/muskie (d)
rockefeller/romney (i)

[Lincoln Republican]

Rockefeller and Romney almost act as spoilers for Nixon, nearly costing him the win, as Republican votes are split in states Nixon would have won.

A narrow win for Nixon in Missouri puts him into the Presidency.

Rockefeller fails to win any electoral votes, but wins a significant percentage of the popular vote.

Reagan on the ticket helps solidify most of the west and the south for Nixon.

Nixon/Reagan                279 EV  41% PV
Humphrey/Muskie          259 EV  39% PV
Rockefeller/Romney           0 EV  20% PV

[NewFederalist]

wHaT hApPeNeD tO GeOrGe WaLlAcE?