What was Trump’s “true” approval rating going through 2020?

[Bomster]

Throughout his presidency, Trump has been consistently unpopular, which is reflected in both of his electoral performances. However it was also recorded as remarkably stable. On 538’s polling average, Trump’s approval rating typically hovered between 41-43%, and his disapproval hovered between 52-54%. Gallup recorded an average approval of 41%, the lowest average approval they’ve ever recorded of any President. But despite all of that, in “the only poll that matters”, the election, Trump had the support of nearly 47% of the electorate, with his opponent Joe Biden winning 51%. Does this mean that Trump’s “true” approval rating was undercounted? What can we estimate Trump’s “true” approval rating to have been based on the presidential election results and exit polls, and what does this say about President Biden’s approval rating since his mirrors Trump’s but in reverse?

[DaleCooper]

Around about 40%, maybe a little higher, was probably accurate. If it was any higher then that would indicate that almost all of his voters approved of him, which is not realistic.

[Chips]

Around about 40%, maybe a little higher, was probably accurate. If it was any higher then that would indicate that almost all of his voters approved of him, which is not realistic.

[Tartarus Sauce]

About what it said it was, maybe a point or two higher due to some of his core voters being the types that are incredibly disconnected and hard to reach through traditional surveying methods. Incumbent president reelection numbers don't usually exactly match their approvals, and not all of the potential American electorate votes. He certainly didn't have 47% of the total population's approval.

[Motorcity]

Regarding approvals, the polls were probably accurate here. 5-10% of the electorate disapproving of his behavior while voting for him for taxes and judges sound right

Biden currently has a 53% approval rating. 2% of the electorate voting for Trump yet approving of Biden sounds right as pathetic as it sounds

[Bomster]

About what it said it was, maybe a point or two higher due to some of his core voters being the types that are incredibly disconnected and hard to reach through traditional surveying methods. Incumbent president reelection numbers don't usually exactly match their approvals, and not all of the potential American electorate votes. He certainly didn't have 47% of the total population's approval.

Something I have noticed (by looking at 538's approval aggregates) is that the percentage of voters who voted for the incumbent almost always exceeds the percent who approve of the President in approval polling but the percentage of voters who disapprove of the President is closer to the percentage of the vote the challenger received.

According to 538, on day 1,382 of their presidencies (around election day), Bush had 48.4% approval, Obama had 49.0% approval, and Trump had 44.6% (a high for him). In their re-election bids, Bush won 50.7% of the vote, Obama won 51.1%, and Trump won 46.9%. For Bush that's a difference of +2.3, for Obama it's a difference of +2.1, and for Trump it's a difference of +2.3. It seems that there is a consistent >2% of support for incumbents that isn't recorded by averaging approval polling.

However, approval polling seems to accurately capture the support of the opposing party's candidate. Bush had 47.5% disapproval, Obama had 47.4%, and Trump had 52.6%. John Kerry won 48.4% of the vote in 2004, Romney won 47.2% in 2012, and Biden won 51.3% in 2020. For Kerry, it's a difference of +0.9, for Romney it's extremely close to Obama's disapproval, only -0.2 points off. However for Biden, it's a larger difference of -1.3 points off of Trump's disapproval.

[Motorcity]

About what it said it was, maybe a point or two higher due to some of his core voters being the types that are incredibly disconnected and hard to reach through traditional surveying methods. Incumbent president reelection numbers don't usually exactly match their approvals, and not all of the potential American electorate votes. He certainly didn't have 47% of the total population's approval.

Something I have noticed (by looking at 538's approval aggregates) is that the percentage of voters who voted for the incumbent almost always exceeds the percent who approve of the President in approval polling but the percentage of voters who disapprove of the President is closer to the percentage of the vote the challenger received.

According to 538, on day 1,382 of their presidencies (around election day), Bush had 48.4% approval, Obama had 49.0% approval, and Trump had 44.6% (a high for him). In their re-election bids, Bush won 50.7% of the vote, Obama won 51.1%, and Trump won 46.9%. For Bush that's a difference of +2.3, for Obama it's a difference of +2.1, and for Trump it's a difference of +2.3. It seems that there is a consistent >2% of support for incumbents that isn't recorded by averaging approval polling.

However, approval polling seems to accurately capture the support of the opposing party's candidate. Bush had 47.5% disapproval, Obama had 47.4%, and Trump had 52.6%. John Kerry won 48.4% of the vote in 2004, Romney won 47.2% in 2012, and Biden won 51.3% in 2020. For Kerry, it's a difference of +0.9, for Romney it's extremely close to Obama's disapproval, only -0.2 points off. However for Biden, it's a larger difference of -1.3 points off of Trump's disapproval.

Very interesting, thank you for that information!

I wonder why approval polls are more accurate than electoral polls. Its odd that people are comfortable saying who they approve/disapprove of, but not who they plan to vote for

Biden currently has 53% approval rating. If we follow the pattern and add two points, he would win 55% of the vote. With that, he would win the 413 nut map

[Bomster]

About what it said it was, maybe a point or two higher due to some of his core voters being the types that are incredibly disconnected and hard to reach through traditional surveying methods. Incumbent president reelection numbers don't usually exactly match their approvals, and not all of the potential American electorate votes. He certainly didn't have 47% of the total population's approval.

Something I have noticed (by looking at 538's approval aggregates) is that the percentage of voters who voted for the incumbent almost always exceeds the percent who approve of the President in approval polling but the percentage of voters who disapprove of the President is closer to the percentage of the vote the challenger received.

According to 538, on day 1,382 of their presidencies (around election day), Bush had 48.4% approval, Obama had 49.0% approval, and Trump had 44.6% (a high for him). In their re-election bids, Bush won 50.7% of the vote, Obama won 51.1%, and Trump won 46.9%. For Bush that's a difference of +2.3, for Obama it's a difference of +2.1, and for Trump it's a difference of +2.3. It seems that there is a consistent >2% of support for incumbents that isn't recorded by averaging approval polling.

However, approval polling seems to accurately capture the support of the opposing party's candidate. Bush had 47.5% disapproval, Obama had 47.4%, and Trump had 52.6%. John Kerry won 48.4% of the vote in 2004, Romney won 47.2% in 2012, and Biden won 51.3% in 2020. For Kerry, it's a difference of +0.9, for Romney it's extremely close to Obama's disapproval, only -0.2 points off. However for Biden, it's a larger difference of -1.3 points off of Trump's disapproval.

Very interesting, thank you for that information!

I wonder why approval polls are more accurate than electoral polls. Its odd that people are comfortable saying who they approve/disapprove of, but not who they plan to vote for

Biden currently has 53% approval rating. If we follow the pattern and add two points, he would win 55% of the vote. With that, he would win the 413 nut map

I highly doubt it tbh. Polls today have the same consistent problem: underestimating Republican support. I suspect that Biden’s approval will slightly outperform his eventual 2024 vote-share (should get run) but that his disapproval will be outperformed by the eventual voteshare for the Republican. Politics is basically two camps, the Pro-Trump and Anti-Trump groups. It’s why Biden’s approval ratings are basically Trump’s in reverse cuz everyone who disapproved of Trump approves of Biden and vice versa. And the pro-Trump crowd consistently is larger than what polls capture.

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump's approval rating right before the election was around 45-46% in the RCP average. Incumbent presidents typically overshoot their approval by 1-2% in the election, with undecideds and (typically) an enthusiasm edge explaining that 1-2%. I used this to predict the popular vote of 51.5-47 Biden, and it ended up nearly spot on.

Also, one thing to note: Biden's approval right now, is almost exactly the inverse of Trump's throughout his presidency, so basically, nothing has changed so far in terms of coalition shifts.

[Hope For A New Era]

43% was correct. You don't have to approve of a candidate to vote for them. Probably a lot of those "undecided voters" were the kinds of people who didn't like either candidate but were always going to eventually end up voting for him anyway. My parents were among them (well, they never claimed to be undecided, but they would have consistently answered "disapprove" to polls throughout his presidency).