What is the correct takeaway from the 2020 result going forward?

[EJ24]

?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Stronger in what regard, and in comparison to when? Presidentially, the Democrats' coalition is more electorally inefficient than it was previously, but that might only last a couple of election cycles until they reliably crack more of the sunbelt. Republicans have opened up more possibilities with potential minority inroads, but there is no guarantee they will successfully capitalize on it. Congressionally, Democrats are more packed into certain geographies and locked out of competitive viability in vast swathes of the country area wise, but their partisan baseline has become more firmly entrenched in the metropolitan areas, providing a firmer floor than they had previously. Republicans are currently buoyed by more favorable ticket-splitting habits downballot, but it's generally faded across the board for both parties and is likely to continue fading for Republicans in the diverse, educated suburbs they are losing ground in.

Democrats are weaker than they were in 2006 and 2008, but Republicans are weaker than they were in 2010 and 2014, and arguably even 2016. It's mostly a wash, with Republicans having better structural favorability for now, but that was already the case and I'm not convinced they've managed to greatly expand upon it. Both parties' strategies have fairly apparent downsides, the Democrats' problem being their inefficient geographic distribution, and the Republicans' problem being their overreliance on structural favorability and their hyperactive conservative base due to their refusal to craft an actual majoritarian coalition.

[Chips]

#5.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Really hard to say.


- Minorities swung quite a bit to the GOP, but there's too many excuses to know what the ultimate cause was. It could be a sign of things to come but it could also be an aberration. After all, Republicans completely squandered all the goodwill Dubya had with his impressive (In retrospect) Hispanic support in 2000 & 2004.
- Trump throwing a wrench into things by being Trump. Though at the same time, being a magnet for rural voters & Rust Belt voters.
- COVID overshadowing the entire election cycle.
- Record-high turnout that's likely to not be repeated in 2024.
- With 2022 being a BIDEN MIDTERM and all, I don't think we'll get many answers next year either (Outside of Georgia & maybe Arizona).


Final answer: 2020 was an unusual election in an unusual year. Currently, it's a frustrating election to analyze and I don't think we'll get the full picture for another few years. We'll get a much better read of the electorate in 2024 (Which could also better explain the 2020 election race)

[Motorcity]

Don’t know if it means anything, but the GOP is stronger now than any other party just kicked out of power.

I can’t think of any other point in American history where both parties were within a point of winning the presidency, house, and senate. We’re talking a difference in weather on Election Day margins.

That’s important. The US is in trench warfare and that won’t change until an entire generation dies off.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats are stronger over the next few cycles.  This was probably the last chance the GOP had to rely on a largely conservative, uneducated, white working class vote and it failed.  The demographics aren't getting better for them. 

[Samof94]

Democrats are stronger over the next few cycles.  This was probably the last chance the GOP had to rely on a largely conservative, uneducated, white working class vote and it failed.  The demographics aren't getting better for them. 

Agreed

[Orser67]

For presidential elections, I'd vote for 2, 6, and 7. Obviously things are different when you look at the Senate, but for presidential elections I think Republicans are in a lot of trouble demographically going forward, and they really needed to either gain more ground with non-white voters or do better with white voters. Democrats can't count on Republicans having maxed out with rurals and non-college whites, but they have at least some reason to be optimistic that they've stopped the bleeding. And I think any Republican will have a hard time simultaneously appealing to both the Trumpian base and swing voters.

I can’t think of any other point in American history where both parties were within a point of winning the presidency, house, and senate. We’re talking a difference in weather on Election Day margins.

I agree that 2020 was historically unusual, but I think 2000 was similarly close (though I'm not sure just how close the House tipping point race was).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Id say the GOP is in better shape than it was from 2006-2014  in terms of overall electability for the Presidential and Senate level but worse in the House level than it was from 2010-2014.


Its definitely weaker than it was from 2000-2006 and 2014-2019 though

[ElectionsGuy]

Democrats are stronger over the next few cycles.  This was probably the last chance the GOP had to rely on a largely conservative, uneducated, white working class vote and it failed.  The demographics aren't getting better for them. 

Agreed

He's been saying that for years. I'm sure he'll be telling us in 2032 "this'll be the last time the GOP ever wins another election because of demographics".

[Samof94]

2022 should definitely make it clearer too. It seems to be an unusual midterm.