PEM Management Poll : Biden +4 against Trump
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  PEM Management Poll : Biden +4 against Trump		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: PEM Management Poll : Biden +4 against Trump  (Read 3009 times)
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: April 21, 2021, 08:57:55 AM »
Biden : 46%
Trump : 42%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

Amusing fact : 1.9% of 2020 Trump voters would vote for Biden while 1.3% of 2020 Biden voters would go for Trump.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2021, 08:58:59 AM »
Trump will win in 2024. Polling systematically underestimates Republicans when he's on the ballot.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2021, 09:40:36 AM »
This appears to be a McLaughlin poll in all but name (PEM Management is listed as one of their clients here).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2021, 12:56:28 PM »
Being up 4 in a Biden+2 sample is not bad for a start ...
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2021, 01:03:55 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on April 21, 2021, 08:58:59 AM
Trump will win in 2024. Polling systematically underestimates Republicans when he's on the ballot.

Roll Eyes
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2021, 12:06:53 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 21, 2021, 12:56:28 PM
Being up 4 in a Biden+2 sample is not bad for a start ...

Wouldn't surprise me if Biden ultimately improved by 2 points.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2021, 01:54:01 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on April 21, 2021, 01:03:55 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on April 21, 2021, 08:58:59 AM
Trump will win in 2024. Polling systematically underestimates Republicans when he's on the ballot.

Roll Eyes

Let the 2024 dooming begin!
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2021, 01:55:26 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on April 21, 2021, 08:58:59 AM
Trump will win in 2024. Polling systematically underestimates Republicans when he's on the ballot.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2021, 08:34:43 AM »
While I think it's certainly possible Trump could win again in 2024, I also think he probably won't run.

His ego is extremely fragile and he doesn't like to lose.  Imagine him losing a second time.  I'm not so sure he'd put himself through that.  Add to that, a lot of people blame him for the January 6th terrorist attack (I mean, because he started it and all) and footage of that will be playing non-stop in campaign ads against him.

And what better way to galvanize Democratic voters again than to have Donald Trump back on the ballot?

I think Biden would win again in this matchup.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2021, 05:50:20 PM »
On a uniform swing this would create a Florida 2000 nightmare situation in Wisconsin with Biden leading by the skin of his teeth going into the recount. 

In practice, given state trends, I think it would be a Biden EC win with this map:
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #10 on: April 25, 2021, 05:52:25 PM »
Not bad for a poll with a D +0.7 sample.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: April 25, 2021, 06:01:53 PM »
Polling isn't fixed just because they weight by 2020 vote. They're still going to encounter some of the same biases in their sample composition that they did when they weighted by 2016 vote. What makes it worse is that party coalitions are not static. For instance, even if polling were to successfully account for low social trust voters' preferences in 2020, it would also need to deal with any shifts in those preferences from 2020 to 2024. For the pollsters who have really struggled, I suspect a static correction towards Republicans will not be enough (and the challenge will lie in predicting the rate at which their advantage grows, assuming it continues to grow).
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Chips
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2021, 10:42:38 PM »
Seems about right I'd say.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2021, 12:36:54 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on April 25, 2021, 05:50:20 PM
On a uniform swing this would create a Florida 2000 nightmare situation in Wisconsin with Biden leading by the skin of his teeth going into the recount.  

In practice, given state trends, I think it would be a Biden EC win with this map:




Stop this WI going R before GA

Well the nut maps should be over
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