2008 if the election was held the day before the stock market crash

[darklordoftech]

?

[Matty]

Indiana and NC maybe to mccain.

Maybe florida.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The Election being held the day before the stock market crash is different from how the map would have looked like with just no crash. If the election was held on September 14th, 2008 I think is a 269-269 tie

[BigVic]

The Election being held the day before the stock market crash is different from how the map would have looked like with just no crash. If the election was held on September 14th, 2008 I think is a 269-269 tie

Obama would win by House contingent election thanks to the Dems holding Congress

[Chips]

Same map as 2004, but NM goes blue. NM, PA, NH and possibly MN would've been in play.

[UWS]

McCain would win thanks the convention bounce he got after the 2008 Republican National Convention.

John McCain : 283 EVs
Barack Obama : 255 EVs

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

McCain wins NC, IN, FL, and possibly OH.

[dw93]

NC, IN, NE 2nd, and possibly FL go to McCain, but Obama still wins, though does so with more limited coattails.

[Sir Mohamed]

NC, IN, NE 2nd, and possibly FL go to McCain, but Obama still wins, though does so with more limited coattails.

Agreed. The 2012 would be a plausible outcome.

[NewYorkExpress]

John McCain could have won if:

The stock market didn't crash, and he picked anyone other than Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since Palin is still on the ticket, Obama wins.



The surprise of the night is New Hampshire, which goes to McCain by a couple of hundred votes, continuing his love affair with the Granite State.

[Alben Barkley]

Wow, people in this thread are DRAMATICALLY overestimating the impact of the crash. Yeah it certainly hurt McCain, but Bush (who barely won twice) was historically unpopular BEFORE the crash due to Iraq and just fatigue with him and Republicans in general. Plus the economy wasn’t exactly doing great even before the crash; the crisis started in 2007! It was 100% a “change” year and the Republicans were not gonna win no matter what. Period. Forget Palin, forget everything; none of that would change the outcome one way or the other. 2008 was absolutely the Democrats’ year, crash or no crash.

All that is almost guaranteed to change is Indiana flipping. That’s about it. Probably also McCain wins NE-02 and NC, maybe FL. That’s the extent of it. Popular vote and the election as a whole just look more like 2012 instead. That’s the boring but accurate answer. The idea that McCain would win or there would be a 269 tie (LOL at OSR and his New Hampshire fixation, even worse with NYE having it vote right of NC, OH, and FL!) is a completely nonsensical fantasy. And convention bounce? Seriously? By that logic Dukakis should have won by 17 points and Hillary should have won the 413 map. Since when have convention bounces ever not faded? Come ON!

Honestly I have to wonder how many of you are even old enough to remember the 2008 election if you unironically think this? Change was in the air, there was almost never any serious doubt Obama would win, and the crash wasn’t even the biggest reason. Certainly far from the only one, not even close.

Anyway, here’s the actual most likely map, and yes it is literally just the 2012 map but with McCain instead of Romney and 2000 census EVs:

[Chips]

Wow, people in this thread are DRAMATICALLY overestimating the impact of the crash. Yeah it certainly hurt McCain, but Bush (who barely won twice) was historically unpopular BEFORE the crash due to Iraq and just fatigue with him and Republicans in general. Plus the economy wasn’t exactly doing great even before the crash; the crisis started in 2007! It was 100% a “change” year and the Republicans were not gonna win no matter what. Period. Forget Palin, forget everything; none of that would change the outcome one way or the other. 2008 was absolutely the Democrats’ year, crash or no crash.

All that is almost guaranteed to change is Indiana flipping. That’s about it. Probably also McCain wins NE-02 and NC, maybe FL. That’s the extent of it. Popular vote and the election as a whole just look more like 2012 instead. That’s the boring but accurate answer. The idea that McCain would win or there would be a 269 tie (LOL at OSR and his New Hampshire fixation, even worse with NYE having it vote right of NC, OH, and FL!) is a completely nonsensical fantasy. And convention bounce? Seriously? By that logic Dukakis should have won by 17 points and Hillary should have won the 413 map. Since when have convention bounces ever not faded? Come ON!

Honestly I have to wonder how many of you are even old enough to remember the 2008 election if you unironically think this? Change was in the air, there was almost never any serious doubt Obama would win, and the crash wasn’t even the biggest reason. Certainly far from the only one, not even close.

Anyway, here’s the actual most likely map, and yes it is literally just the 2012 map but with McCain instead of Romney and 2000 census EVs:

True but it is worth pointing out Obama and McCain were polling even at that point. It is possible Obama could have won everything he did win -IN, NC, NE-02.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Honestly I have to wonder how many of you are even old enough to remember the 2008 election if you unironically think this? Change was in the air, there was almost never any serious doubt Obama would win, and the crash wasn’t even the biggest reason. Certainly far from the only one, not even close.

Yep...I can even remember the summer of 2008 when gas was $4/gallon (it of course would plummet right after the crash)...Bush was as popular as cancer that year. I think even casual observers of politics knew Democrats, whomever they nominated, were going to win unless something dramatic happened to make Bush and the Republicans popular again (i.e. capture of bin Laden).