2028: Gov. McConaughey (D-TX) vs. President DeSantis (R-FL)

[Alben Barkley]

President Biden decides to retire rather than run for another term in 2024. Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem narrowly defeat Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg in that year’s election, in part because the economy had taken a downturn after an initial boom following the pandemic. However, four years later the economy is still sluggish and the antics and statements of the new President and VP are widely criticized; DeSantis’s approval rating is generally middling to poor.

Enter the superstar Governor of Texas: Running as a Democrat in 2022, world famous actor Matthew McConaughey’s campaign took the state and nation by storm and defeated incumbent governor Greg Abbot in an otherwise mostly disappointing 2022 midterm year for Democrats. His win, the first statewide win for Democrats in Texas in nearly 30 years, was widely attributed both to the eroding popularity of the incumbent and the charisma and star power of the challenger. McConaughey remains popular and is comfortably re-elected to a second term in 2026, despite the fact that DeSantis won the state in 2024 (albeit by less than 3 points).

McConaughey, generally considered a moderate Democrat, manages to win the Democratic nomination in 2028 in part by appealing to the pragmatism of African-American voters in South Carolina. He selects a fellow Southern governor elected in 2022, Stacey Abrams, as his running mate. Abrams had run herself before McConaughey, who had wider national support (including among Hispanic voters), struck a deal with her to drop out early and endorse him; this is also cited as part of the reason he did so well with black voters.

So, who wins in this McConaughey/Abrams vs. DeSantis/Noem 2028 general election?

[Suburbia]

I don't think a straight white male Democrat will be the nominee for a while post-Biden, but it will be a pure tossup.

[Utah Neolib]

President Biden decides to retire rather than run for another term in 2024. Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem narrowly defeat Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg in that year’s election, in part because the economy had taken a downturn after an initial boom following the pandemic. However, four years later the economy is still sluggish and the antics and statements of the new President and VP are widely criticized; DeSantis’s approval rating is generally middling to poor.

Enter the superstar Governor of Texas: Running as a Democrat in 2022, world famous actor Matthew McConaughey’s campaign took the state and nation by storm and defeated incumbent governor Greg Abbot in an otherwise mostly disappointing 2022 midterm year for Democrats. His win, the first statewide win for Democrats in Texas in nearly 30 years, was widely attributed both to the eroding popularity of the incumbent and the charisma and star power of the challenger. McConaughey remains popular and is comfortably re-elected to a second term in 2026, despite the fact that DeSantis won the state in 2024 (albeit by less than 3 points).

McConaughey, generally considered a moderate Democrat, manages to win the Democratic nomination in 2028 in part by appealing to the pragmatism of African-American voters in South Carolina. He selects a fellow Southern governor elected in 2022, Stacey Abrams, as his running mate. Abrams had run herself before McConaughey, who had wider national support (including among Hispanic voters), struck a deal with her to drop out early and endorse him; this is also cited as part of the reason he did so well with black voters.

So, who wins in this McConaughey/Abrams vs. DeSantis/Noem 2028 general election?

I would honestly say that McConaughey wins. Celebrity, experience, he has stuff going for him. Abrams will help in Georgia. McConaughey wins in a sunbelt path, winning Arizona, Georgia, and close to winning North Carolina. He also wins Michigan, but other Midwestern states don’t go for him. Narrow McConaughey victory.

[Chips]

I don't think a straight white male Democrat will be the nominee for a while post-Biden, but it will be a pure tossup.

[bagelman]

It's like a more apathetic 2020 in many ways, combined with further trends. The Governor's home state might vote for him, Wisconsin won't. This is if things go well for the challenger.

Maybe this is when we see younger voters, by now solidly the younger half of Zoomers, swing away from Democrats. But Millennials will remain Democratic leaning enough to help the challenger and the conservative olds are dying off.

[Alben Barkley]

It's like a more apathetic 2020 in many ways, combined with further trends. The Governor's home state might vote for him, Wisconsin won't. This is if things go well for the challenger.

Maybe this is when we see younger voters, by now solidly the younger half of Zoomers, swing away from Democrats. But Millennials will remain Democratic leaning enough to help the challenger and the conservative olds are dying off.

This idea that Zoomers are more conservative than Millennials is total BS that has been decisively disproven repeatedly at this point.

[bagelman]

It's like a more apathetic 2020 in many ways, combined with further trends. The Governor's home state might vote for him, Wisconsin won't. This is if things go well for the challenger.

Maybe this is when we see younger voters, by now solidly the younger half of Zoomers, swing away from Democrats. But Millennials will remain Democratic leaning enough to help the challenger and the conservative olds are dying off.

This idea that Zoomers are more conservative than Millennials is total BS that has been decisively disproven repeatedly at this point.

Agreed, but that refers to older Zoomers, who have much in common with younger Millennials. Younger Zoomers haven't been tested yet.