2022: Midterm Madness (Gameplay Thread)

[OBD]

Welcome, everyone, to 2022 Midterm Madness, the must-watch culmination to President Biden’s action-packed first term. With both the House and Senate, both currently under narrow Democratic control, up for grabs, Democrats and Republicans alike are looking for a mandate from the American people to advance their respective agendas in Congress. And this election will be decided in six key swing states with competitive Senate and House races - candidates here must campaign hard and work up and down the ballot to step up and deliver wins for their party.

While the Biden term has been seen as an overall ‘return to normalcy’ from the chaotic Trump campaign, battles over policy have been just as bloody as they were under the 45th President. Fighting against fillibuster rules, Democrats have managed to pass HR1, their signature voting rights bill, as well as their preferred budget - however, due to dogged Republican opposition, important legislative initiatives like DC/Puerto Rico statehood and Biden’s green infrastructure package have stalled. Both parties have also been forced to deal with internal dissention - increasingly angry voices on the left of the Democratic Party have expressed displeasure at the slow pace of the Biden administration, while the GOP has once more been rendered in two by the lighting-rod former President Trump. In addition to campaigning for or against President Biden’s legislative packages, candidates must unite their parties behind them to have the best possible chance at victory - and in some cases, they must cast their lot with a wing of their party.

To prevent gaming of the system, I’ll keep the exact details of how I grade events close to my chest - however, here are some ground rules.

- Each candidate will get 2 statewide TV ads a month. One statewide ad can be substituted for two regional ads, which will only air in a region specified by the candidate (for balance this region cannot consist of over half the state’s population).

- One Democrat and one Republican will have the opportunity to gain another TV ad - whichever candidate holds the best fundraising events, as determined by me, will get an additional TV ad for the turn. This will be determined by the number of events explicitly labeled as fundraising, as well as any speeches made during said events.

- Events will be graded based on the congressional district they are held in (maps will be posted along with the first turn on April 20). Each event will have a statewide effect with a larger effect in the congressional district they are held in. Additionally, I will take into account the ‘fit’ of the event for both the district and the state - for instance, campaigning on social progressivism in rural North Carolina will probably not go over well. Lastly, I will take into account general factors of appeal, for instance, district poll numbers will be affected by whichever voters a candidate is attempting to pander to.

- Don’t anticipate this will be a problem, but no teleporting. There’s only a certain amount of events you can do in a day - be realistic, please.

- Speeches are encouraged, and will help your score, but are not required.

- Interviews will be offered on a first-come first serve basis

Lastly, I’d be happy to clarify this proposed rule set before we officially close the first turn (do so in the signup thread).

Reservations

North Carolina: Mark Walker (S019) vs. Joan Higginbotham (Mycool)

Pennsylvania: Ryan Costello (Joeinator) vs. Matt Cartwright (Falterin)

Arizona: Kimberlee Yee (UWS) vs. Mark Kelly (Ishan)

Georgia: Doug Collins (Kuumo) vs. Raphael Warnock (Kaiser)

Wisconsin: Republican vs. Tom Nelson (Orwell)

New Hampshire: Republican vs. Democrat

[OBD]

CONGRESSIONAL MAPS

North Carolina:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e6b1adf-b0e1-45cf-8358-cd633f3f7ef9

Pennsylvania:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/142484a2-4167-4f2e-b9ea-c84bf02a6682

Arizona:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c9dc57c-0565-45ea-a16b-1f60534ee0d1

Georgia:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0248a207-7747-4124-ada1-8acf5aefc348

Wisconsin

https://davesredistricting.org/join/31581b2d-c219-4154-8cff-bf08fa192c31

[OBD]

TURN I - JULY 2022

Biden Approval
Approve 50%
Disapprove 43%
Unsure 7%

Congressional Approval
Approve 20%
Disapprove 71%
Unsure 9%

Generic Congressional Ballot (Polling Composite)
Democratic 48%
Republican 43%
Undecided 9%

NEWS:
- Deadlock over Biden green energy package, immigration reform, public option, statehood bills continues, Minority Leader McConnell maintains dedicated fillibuster
- In wake of Fisher Brown shooting, competing police reform bills introduced in House
- President Biden expresses anger over continued ‘minority obstructionism’, but Democratic Senators remaining intransigent on filibuster
- Russian occupation of Donbass region continues as Ukraine peace enters tenuous 7th month, human rights violations ‘alleged’

Welcome to Midterm Madness - Politico’s analysis of the key races that will decide the composition of the Senate for the remainder of President Biden’s first term. While Democrats hold majorities in both houses of Congress currently, their legislative priorities have been put on hold by both the filibuster and infighting between the establishment and progressive wings. The latter was seen when two competing police bills were introduced in the House last week - the one sponsored by the Justice Democrats, unlike the bill supported by the Democratic establishments, supports broader, more aggressive provisions (including partial defunding) to combat police violence. The battle over these bills, as well as against Mitch McConnell’s fillibuster, has the potential to rend the Democratic Party in two.

Meanwhile, while Republicans have maintained a united front in Congress (besides a few defectors on PR statehood), they still have a massive elephant in the room to deal with - former President Donald Trump. With 18 months having passed since the end of his presidency, Trump still maintains a strong hold on the GOP, and has even hinted at a potential 2024 run. With memories of his power still fresh, Republicans must choose whether or not to defend his legacy, and to what degree. They must also choose between bringing suburban voters horrified by Trump back into the fold, or attempting to hold Trump’s gains among the rural white working-class.
Now, let’s take a look at some key races.

In North Carolina, former Representative Mark Walker hopes to hold this crucial seat (vacated by Sen. Richard Burr) for the Republicans. Opposing him is Joan Higginbotham, a former astronaut. Walker, for better or worse, was seen by most of the North Carolinans we interviewed as a staunch conservative - however, many staunch Trump supporters across the state seemed unsure of the depth of his alignment with the President (though indicated a willingness to go to the polls for him if this was cleared up). In contrast, Higginbotham is generally regarded as a ‘blank slate’, with few Tar Heelers familiar with her or her exact policy positions. That said, solidly liberal minority voters in North Carolina’s urban areas appeared more supportive than most of her candidacy. Polling indicates a slight edge to Walker, though a poll by the Republican pollster Trafalgar might be skewing the average here.

Polls
Trafalgar (R): Walker 49, Higginbotham 43
NYT-Siena: Walker 47, Higginbotham 45
CNN: Walker 47, Higginbotham 46
Average: WALKER+3

In Pennsylvania, Representative Matt Cartwright of Scranton is taking on former Rep. Ryan Costello, who represented a gerrymandered seat in the Philadelphia suburbs, for the rights to Republican Pat Toomey’s seat. Reports from the ground indicate that this is a remarkably depolarized race, with multiple voters from both parties showing a willingness to cross over - however, pundits in the Keystone State are divided as to whether this effect will last to the general election. The overwhelming opinion of Pennsylvanians is that Costello is a more ‘consensus’ Republican who is willing to break with Trump - however, while this endears him to some voters (particularly in the suburbs), a Trump voter in Altoona told us that he ‘wasn’t voting for that smug elitist prick’. Cartwright, meanwhile, appears to be winning back some Democratic support in rurals (especially in his home region of Scranton), but may struggle in the suburbs against Costello. With a high amount of undecideds, Cartwright currently holds a strong lead - but with polling misses in 2016 and 2020, one must question the accuracy of Pennsylvania polls.

Polls
PPP (D): Cartwright 49, Costello 41
Monmouth: Cartwright 47, Costello 43
NYT/Siena: Cartwright 46, Costello 42
Average: CARTWRIGHT +5.3

In Arizona, Senator Mark Kelly - elected in 2020 - is in a tough re-election battle against Arizona House Speaker Russell Bowers. Most voters we interviewed weren’t exceptionally familiar with Bowers - however, those who did recalled his role in opposing the attempt to overturn Arizona’s election results in 2020. Additionally, voters in Mesa, his home region, appeared more inclined to support his candidacy - though, on the flip side of that coin, an elderly Trump supporter in Lake Havasu City said he was ‘unmoved’ by Bowers. Meanwhile, with memories still fresh from 2020, Kelly retains his edge in name recognition, as well as his image as a moderate (though this has been somewhat overshadowed by his fellow Senator Krysten Sinema). Also of note - we didn’t see any region where Kelly was particularly strong or weak relative to base partisanship. In the sparse polling so far, Kelly maintains an average lead just outside of the margin of error - however, a SurveyMonkey poll that shows him up by 11 has many more reputable pollsters scratching their heads.

Polls
SurveyMonkey: Kelly 51, Bowers 40
PPP (D): Kelly 50, Bowers 43
Rasmussen: Kelly 45, Bowers 46
Average: KELLY +5.3

In Georgia, freshman Senator Raphael Warnock faces off against former Rep. Doug Collins in a quasi-rematch (while Collins ran in 2020, he was defeated by Warnock and then-Senator Loeffler in his bid to reach the January runoff). Between the political earthquake that rattled Georgia blue in 2020 and the potential effects of HR1 on a state with historically variant turnout, there is little pundits can concur on here - however, nearly all agree that this Senate race has been somewhat overshadowed by the marquee gubernatorial race between 2018 candidate Stacey Abrams and enthusiastic Trumper Vernon Jones. Representative Collins, meanwhile, retains some strength in his home region of North Georgia, and was also reviewed somewhat favorably by Trump supporters. However, suburban voters, recalling his race to the right with Kelly Loeffler in 2020, appeared less willing to support his candidacy. Meanwhile, Senator Warnock is seen as a known commodity - retaining his strength among young and minority voters. As the national environment moving rightward could sink Warnock, unlocking higher turnout after the passage of HR1 is a likely priority of his campaign. Polls so far have shown a dead heat here - and it’s also important to note that a runoff will be triggered if no candidate reaches 50%.

Polls
Rasmussen: Collins 49, Warnock 43
CNN: Warnock 46, Collins 45
PPP (D): Warnock 48, Collins 45
Average: COLLINS +0.7

In Wisconsin, former Governor Scott Walker hopes to hold this seat for Republicans against Outagamie County executive Tom Nelson. Early indicators show problems for both candidates - when questioned, many Wisconsin voters of both parties were unfamiliar with Tom Nelson, with a small minority recalling his unsuccessful Lt. Gov run in 2010 or his performance as a progressive Bernie Sanders
delegate ten years later. Meanwhile, Governor Walker, while supported by most of the Trump base, is significantly less popular with independents and is hated universally by the Democratic voters pundits interviewed. With another competitive gubernatorial election - Democratic Governor Tony Evers fighting for re-election against Republican Sean Duffy - on the ballot, this election appears to be a fairly polarized dead heat, though there are a significant contingent of undecided voters. And, while Nelson seems to be underperforming in the suburbs as Walker is struggling to catch up to Trump in the state's rural areas (as he did in 2018), neither candidate appears to have a significant homecourt advantage in any part of the state. And, complicating the race, Wisconsin polls continue to be an enigma - pundits wonder if the polling industry here will continue to miss the mark after embarrassments in 2016 and 2020.

Polls
SurveyMonkey: Nelson 46, Walker 46
Monmouth: Nelson 46, Walker 45
PPP (D): Nelson 48, Walker 44
Average: NELSON +1.67

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE
short description of fictional candidates included
NC-1: G.K Butterfield (D) vs. Kay Fairbain (R-Riddick Crossroads, farmer)
NC-2: Deborah Ross (D) vs. Selena Lindquist (R-Garner, staffer)
NC-7: David Rouzer (R) vs. Zita Almeida (D-Wilmington, schoolteacher)
NC-8: Charles Graham (D) vs. Ben Derrickson (R-Fayetteville, doctor)
NC-9: Dan Bishop (R) vs. Riley Graham (D-Charlotte, gun control activist)
NC-11: Madison Cawthorn (R) vs. Health Shuler (D)
NC-14: Rolf Barkley (D-Chapel Hill, professor) vs. Jade Dufort (R-Reidsville, farmer)
PA-1: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Ben Sanchez (D)
PA-6: Chrissy Houlahan (D) vs. Dave Argall (R)
PA-7: Susan Wild (D) vs. Lisa Scheller (R)
PA-8: Dan Meuser (R) vs. Asher Kaufmann (D-Scranton, Cartwright staffer)
PA-10: Scott Perry (R) vs. Kylie Palmer (D-Harrisburg, administrative official)
PA-17: Conor Lamb (D) vs. Rebekah Price (R-Cranberry Township, pro-life activist)
AZ-1: Tom O’Halleran (D) vs. Walter Blackman (R)
AZ-2: Randy Friese (D) vs. Martha McSally (R)
AZ-6: David Schweikert (R) vs. Ferdinand Giulio (D-Glendale, veteran)
AZ-8: Debbie Lesko (R) vs. William Michaelis (D-Surprise, businessman)
AZ-9: Greg Stanton (D) vs. Ron Kemp (R-Scottsdale, lawyer)
AZ-10: Joyce Jackson (D-Guadalupe, activist) vs. Gabriel Immacolata (R-Queen Creek, lobbyist)
GA-1: Buddy Carter (R) vs. Dominique Edwards (D-Savannah, reverend)
GA-2: Sanford Bishop (D) vs. Steve Hasse (R-Americus, farmer)
GA-6: Lucy McBath (D) vs. Peggy Garrett (R-Noonday, businesswoman)
GA-7: Carolyn Bordeaux (D) vs. Rich McCormick (R)
GA-10: Jody Hice (R) vs. Spencer Frye (D)
GA-11: Barry Loudermilk (R) vs. Richard Ybarra (D-Johns Creek, businessman)
GA-12: Rick Allen (R) vs. Sheila Clark Nelson (D)
WI-1: Bryan Steil (R) vs. Rob Greengrass (D-Kenosha, civil rights lawyer)
WI-3: Ron Kind (D) vs. Howard Marklein (R)
WI-8: Mike Gallagher (R) vs. Gordon Hintz (D)

GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATES:
Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro (D) vs. Lou Barletta (R)
Arizona: Kirk Adams (R) vs. Katie Hobbs (D)
Georgia: Vernon Jones (R) vs. Stacey Abrams (D)

Campaigning for the first turn is now open! I’ll expect responses by May 2, with extensions for anyone who joins after this point.

[OBD]

Haven't seen much activity here so I'm going to give a one week extension, to May 9, for all campaign material July 2022 and prior.

Reminder that your post this turn should include a full schedule. Supplementary material, which has been posted here, is optional but can help your polling numbers in certain districts.

[OBD]

Reminder that the first turn is due on the 9th.

[OBD]

Alright, that's the deadline for the first turn. Currently the only candidates that haven't campaigned yet are NC-R (S019, missed) and AZ-R (open). I'll be flexible this time but late campaigns will probably get you deducted if this continues (obvious exception for empty races/extenuating circumstances)

I'm currently working on the updates and they will be out soon.

[OBD]

TURN II - AUGUST 2022

Biden Approval
Approve 50%
Disapprove 44%
Unsure 6%

Congressional Approval
Approve 19%
Disapprove 73%
Unsure 8%

Generic Congressional Ballot (Polling Composite)
Democratic 48%
Republican 44%
Undecided 8%

NEWS:
- Justice Stephen Breyer to retire - Biden expected to nominate Ketanji Brown Jackson for key spot
- Rep.'s Matt Gaetz, Gwen Moore get into altercation outside Capitol as frustrations in Congress intensify
- Report: Manchin 'frustrated', angry with McConnell for continued, 'indiscriminate' obstruction
- Georgia gubernatorial candidate Vernon Jones catches flak for inappropriate insults against opponent Stacey Abrams
- Progressives irritated after Speaker Pelosi sidelines their preferred police bill

Campaigning is now open for Turn II. Polling will come shortly. Arizona polls are currently frozen until a new player for their Republican is found - polling for AZ this round is randomized from the same numbers as last round.

[OBD]

STATE OF THE RACE

With a long time still left before the 2022 midterm elections, candidates across the nation have been jockeying to establish themselves and consolidate their bases, while also working with their parties to secure wins up and down the ballot. And the Senate candidates in the five races (North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) are no different - over the past month, they've been campaigning across their states to try and get an early edge in their respective races.

And for the most part, they have been successful. In North Carolina, Democratic candidate Joan Higginbotham has inspired increased energy among demographics key to her victory. In Pennsylvania, an unconventional election is playing out with Democrat Cartwight attempting to win back rural areas with his opponent pursuing a broader strategy. And, in Georgia, both candidates have managed to consolidate their bases.

However, not every party has fared well during this initial campaigning period. In North Carolina, #WheresWalker is trending on Twitter as the NCGOP's handpicked candidate has been absent from the trail. In Arizona, health concerns for leading Republican Russell Bowers have put the race on hold. And, in Wisconsin, while Democrat Tom Nelson has run a fairly textbook campaign, Republican Scott Walker has made various statements that have called into question his appeal to the GOP base. While Trump and other Republicans have been steady in their support for him, there have reportedly been concerns about him voiced behind the scenes and he will need to toe closer to the party line to retain base support.

And as always, we remind readers that the accuracy of polls has been under scrutiny since the 2020 election, and that the only poll with 100% accuracy is that taken on Election Day.

Polls
Quinnipac (NC): Higginbotham 49, Walker 44
CNN (NC): Walker 46, Higginbotham 46

SurveyMonkey (PA): Cartwright 47, Costello 43
NYT-Siena (PA): Cartwright 47, Costello 44

Quinnipac (AZ): Kelly 50, Bowers 42
NYT-Siena (AZ): Kelly 49, Bowers 42

NYT-Siena (GA): Warnock 48, Collins 45
Rasmussen (GA): Collins 48, Warnock 46

PPP (D) (WI): Nelson 51, Walker 41
Quinnipac (WI): Nelson 50, Walker 43