TX-UT Tyler: McConaughey +12

[Gracile]

Yes, this is an actual poll.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/04/18/matthew-mcconaughey-may-be-a-viable-candidate-for-texas-governor-poll-shows-actor-ahead-of-abbott/

Matthew McConaughey (?) 45%
Greg Abbott (R-inc) 33%
Someone else 22%

[WD]

Yeah, no.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have to wait til he announces

[MT Treasurer]

Like I’ve said various times, 2022 will probably be the first cycle in which I won’t take (any) polling into consideration for my predictions at all.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Really??

Nobody has replied "alright, alright, alright", yet?

[Tender Branson]

Isn’t McC a Republican ?

I always thought so.

Anyway, I’d vote for almost anyone in TX to get rid of the Republicans there.

[SnowLabrador]

Like I’ve said various times, 2022 will probably be the first cycle in which I won’t take (any) polling into consideration for my predictions at all.

Same. Polling is forever broken because of Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

Like I’ve said various times, 2022 will probably be the first cycle in which I won’t take (any) polling into consideration for my predictions at all.

Same. Polling is forever broken because of Trump.

I wouldn’t say it’s (solely) because of Trump. They were widely off the mark in several states & key races in 2014 as well. I do think changing party coalitions have a lot to do with this.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I wish I was dead.

[Skye]

No.

[Crumpets]

Can't "gone away" the McConaughey!

[Biden his time]

This poll looks very reliable. Just look at the crosstabs!:

30% Democrat, 37% Republican, 33% Neither
22% Liberal, 40% Conservative, 31% Moderate
36% voted for Trump in 2020, 32% voted for Biden in 2020, 30% didn't vote at all in 2020
57% Non-Hispanic White, 23% Hispanic, 14% Non-Hispanic Black
39% Protestant, 26% Catholic, 5% Other Christian, 24% Unaffiliated, 6% Other

It is very representative of Texas, religiously, politically, and ethnically and there is no liberal bias.

Also, we must not forget that in 2018 polls were very accurate. Maybe now that Trump is off the ballot, polls are going to be more accurate.

I fully believe this poll and now think that McConaughey is popular among the Texan people.


Interesting info from the poll:

Margin of error: ±2.9% (±4.1% including design effects)

President Biden approval rating: +7% (48% Approve - 41% Disapprove)
Governor Abbott approval rating: +14% (50% Approve - 36% Disapprove)
Lieutenant Governor Patrick approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)
Attorney General Paxton approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)

Senator Cornyn favorability rating: +19% (43% Favorable - 24% Unfavorable)
Senator Cruz favorability rating: +2% (44% Favorable - 42% Unfavorable)
Vice President Harris favorability rating: +3% (43% Favorable - 40% Unfavorable)
Politician O'Rourke favorability rating: -2% (35% Favorable - 37% Unfavorable)

President Biden on Immigration: -22% (30% Approve - 52% Disapprove)


I also encourage you to read the part about news sources by political party.

It is very interesting, trust me.

DIRECT LINK TO THE POLL


I have no clue why you all are writing this off just because it has a result you don't like.

[President Johnson]

They were drunk while conducting this poll? One way or the other, it would be fun to bump that one on November 9, 2022.

[Pink Panther]

Do they know April Fools already happened a couple of weeks ago?

[Frenchrepublican]

This poll looks very reliable. Just look at the crosstabs!:

30% Democrat, 37% Republican, 33% Neither
22% Liberal, 40% Conservative, 31% Moderate
36% voted for Trump in 2020, 32% voted for Biden in 2020, 30% didn't vote at all in 2020
57% Non-Hispanic White, 23% Hispanic, 14% Non-Hispanic Black
39% Protestant, 26% Catholic, 5% Other Christian, 24% Unaffiliated, 6% Other

It is very representative of Texas, religiously, politically, and ethnically and there is no liberal bias.

Also, we must not forget that in 2018 polls were very accurate. Maybe now that Trump is off the ballot, polls are going to be more accurate.

I fully believe this poll and now think that McConaughey is popular among the Texan people.


Interesting info from the poll:

Margin of error: ±2.9% (±4.1% including design effects)

President Biden approval rating: +7% (48% Approve - 41% Disapprove)
Governor Abbott approval rating: +14% (50% Approve - 36% Disapprove)
Lieutenant Governor Patrick approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)
Attorney General Paxton approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)

Senator Cornyn favorability rating: +19% (43% Favorable - 24% Unfavorable)
Senator Cruz favorability rating: +2% (44% Favorable - 42% Unfavorable)
Vice President Harris favorability rating: +3% (43% Favorable - 40% Unfavorable)
Politician O'Rourke favorability rating: -2% (35% Favorable - 37% Unfavorable)

President Biden on Immigration: -22% (30% Approve - 52% Disapprove)


I also encourage you to read the part about news sources by political party.

It is very interesting, trust me.

DIRECT LINK TO THE POLL


I have no clue why you all are writing this off just because it has a result you don't like.

So you expect that one third of the electorate will be composed of voters who did not even vote in 2020 - which was the highest turnout presidential election since 1960 - ? Are you expecting a 90% turnout election ?

Also this pollster had Biden winning TX by 3, so maybe you should not treat them as if they were some sort of gold standard.

Concerning this particular poll the main issue is that they are testing a totally unrealistic hypothesis, I mean if this McConaughey decides to run you have basically two scenarios :

1st scenario (the dude decides to run as a left wing unaffiliated candidate) : In this case it is possible that democrats make a deal with him and don't run a candidate and thus he would get most of dem leaning voters, the problem is that in a such scenario he would become the de facto democratic candidate, and in a such case he would not get 1/3 of the GOP vote like this poll is suggesting. In the end Abbot wins 55/43.

2nd scenario (the dude decides to run as a real centrist / non-partisan candidate) : In this case democrats would run a canddidate who would get around 35% of the vote, MConaughey would get the backing of some moderate democrats and some moderate republicans but it would be hard for him to get much more than 20% of the vote. In the end Abbott wins 45/35/20.

That why this poll is just some trash.

[Biden his time]

So you expect that one third of the electorate will be composed of voters who did not even vote in 2020 - which was the highest turnout presidential election since 1960 - ? Are you expecting a 90% turnout election ?

This I agree with you, it would've been quite helpful if they split up individual questions by whether or not they voted in the last election or not, this is one of my major qualms with the poll.

Also this pollster had Biden winning TX by 3, so maybe you should not treat them as if they were some sort of gold standard.

This is explainable. The crosstabs were trash on that poll. If you check the link, then you'll see. They had self-identified "liberals" making up 29% of the population, and they had Democratic leaders and people who hadn't graduated high school making significantly higher and lower percentages respectively than they do in real life.

All these issues seem to have been fixed with this poll (where liberals made up 22% of the population as is corroborated by other major pollsters).

Concerning this particular poll the main issue is that they are testing a totally unrealistic hypothesis, I mean if this McConaughey decides to run you have basically two scenarios :

1st scenario (the dude decides to run as a left wing unaffiliated candidate) : In this case it is possible that democrats make a deal with him and don't run a candidate and thus he would get most of dem leaning voters, the problem is that in a such scenario he would become the de facto democratic candidate, and in a such case he would not get 1/3 of the GOP vote like this poll is suggesting. In the end Abbot wins 55/43.

2nd scenario (the dude decides to run as a real centrist / non-partisan candidate) : In this case democrats would run a canddidate who would get around 35% of the vote, MConaughey would get the backing of some moderate democrats and some moderate republicans but it would be hard for him to get much more than 20% of the vote. In the end Abbott wins 45/35/20.

This is all true, but that doesn't make it useless. Polls are snapshots in time. As of today, McConaughey is popular among Texas adults. I believe this.

If McConaughey were to run as a Democrat, no doubt his approval would decrease among Republicans, and polls would reflect that.

We shouldn't be focusing on the McConaughey numbers, though, which are the most useless part of the poll, but we should focus on all the other useful info this poll provides.

That why this poll is just some trash.

This is false. This poll provides useful information on the approval ratings of several national and statewide figures among adults, and it also provides useful information about how adults across Texas get their news media, broken down into partisan alignment. In fact, these figures were the main focus of my post.

[Benjamin Frank]

I don't see why this poll can't be accurate. There is no way Matthew McConaughey could be a worse governor than Greg Abbott.

[KaiserDave]

This won't happen but if it did I'd laugh a lot.

[DrScholl]

It's possible that this is accurate at this time. First, McConaughey has declared no party affiliation at this point and a lot of people are drawn towards perceived independence. Second, he's a celebrity. And third, the whole power grid mess is exactly the sort of issue that can cause an incumbent problems, especially from an insurgent candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if he doesn't run, this is bad news for Rs in the H for TX, TX is supposed to secure their H Majority and TX D's can still be Elected in TX

The Energy crisis hurt R chances in TX

[Alben Barkley]

I’m gonna be saving some of the posts in this thread for when Governor McConaughey is sworn into office. Maybe I’ll even remember it when President McConaughey is inaugurated a few years later.

[S019]

Even if he doesn't run, this is bad news for Rs in the H for TX, TX is supposed to secure their H Majority and TX D's can still be Elected in TX

The Energy crisis hurt R chances in TX

Both the Congressional and State House are going to be gerrymandered into oblivion, for instance you can bring in Rockwall to save Angie Chen Button in Dallas. The only Republican incumbents who won’t be 100% safe off the bat would be like BVD and Van Taylor, since Dallas is just a mess in terms of trends and a few state legislators like Angie Chen Button and obvious top Democratic target Morgan Meyer, probably some others too, I don’t think shoring up say Lacey Hull or Gary Gates is going to be particularly easy either, though the person who is going to be in charge of some of the map drawing (Joan Huffman) is from Houston so she’ll probably have a good handle on how trends are going there.

[One Term Floridian]

Looks like the options are either Matthew McConaughey, or "alt-right, alt-right, alt-right"

[indietraveler]

Surprised so many are writing the idea of him running and winning off. TX is actually the perfect state for a celebrity like him to win. In a state with historically poor turnout that's simultaneously undergoing a demographic shift is a near perfect environment for someone like McConaughey to win.

At this time I wouldn't predict it but I'd be less than surprised if he pulled it off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCounghey is the John Wayne of the D party just like Arnie Scharzenegger was the Clint Eastwood of the R party, that's why they both won or will win