My 2022 Gubernatorial Ratings.

[Chips]

https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/x2lX.png

CONFIDENCE LEVELS:

Tossup - Tossup
Lean - Lean
Safe - Strong

[Chips]

If I HAD to pick a gubernatorial winner in every state.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/gjbE.png

PA, GA, KS, WI and MI represent the closest races.

[MT Treasurer]

I think you’re seriously underestimating partisanship in blue states, esp. in MD/CO/VA/NJ/CT/OR. I’d also move TX/IA/OH one category to the right.

MD is my biggest disagreement here - it’s at least Lean D at this point, and even that’s being very generous to Republicans. I really don’t see how it’s more winnable for the GOP than ME.

[Chips]

My mistake: IL should be at LEAN confidence for both maps.

[Chips]

I think you’re seriously underestimating partisanship in blue states, esp. in MD/CO/VA/NJ/CT/OR. I’d also move TX/IA/OH one category to the right.

MD is my biggest disagreement here - it’s at least Lean D at this point, and even that’s being very generous to Republicans.

I can plausibly see the argument for all of these points. For MD, I wouldn't put it past the GOP nominee to pull off another hat trick in a R-leaning midterm. I would move a lot of states to the likely column but I decided to base it off Atlas confidence levels. Who knows where an upset will happen?

[President Johnson]

My mistake: IL should be at LEAN confidence for both maps.

Pritzker should be fine; I'd say Likely Democratic and closer to Safe.

[Chips]

My mistake: IL should be at LEAN confidence for both maps.

Pritzker should be fine; I'd say Likely Democratic and closer to Safe.

Plausible. To be fair, I put it at a Lean confidence but I agree it's Likely D.

[It’s so Joever]

Do you really think Whitmer is favored?

[Chips]

Do you really think Whitmer is favored?

Just slightly. I still think it's a true toss-up.

[EastwoodS]

I’d make TX safe R and FL likely R.

[beesley]

I'd definitely bump up CO, IL, MN, RI, VA and VT a level in the direction of their incumbent parties.

[Frenchrepublican]

My very early rating map without tossups :

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Evers has been leading in every race he leads 49/44 WI and PA will not go red before GA 291 Nate Silver blue Wall

[jdk]

Safe R: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Wyoming
Safe D: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island (also Virginia and New Jersey 2021)
Likely R: Florida, Iowa, Texas
Likely D: Michigan, Nevada
Lean D: Kansas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Tilt D:  Arizona
Tossup: Georgia

TBD: Massachusetts (safe R if Baker runs, safe D if he retires), New Hampshire (safe R if Sununu runs for re-election, lean D if he he chooses to run for senate instead)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs see, the WI polls and want it to be an R state, it's not

[SnowLabrador]

Mostly reasonable, except Kansas is Lean if not Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mostly reasonable, except Kansas is Lean if not Likely R.

You really think D's aren't gonna win WI and PA and every poll has come out with WI Leans D

[Chips]

I'd definitely bump up CO, IL, MN, RI, VA and VT a level in the direction of their incumbent parties.

That could happen.

[Chips]

Mostly reasonable, except Kansas is Lean if not Likely R.

A bit harsh for Kelly in my opinion.

[Chips]

Safe R: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Wyoming
Safe D: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island (also Virginia and New Jersey 2021)
Likely R: Florida, Iowa, Texas
Likely D: Michigan, Nevada
Lean D: Kansas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Tilt D:  Arizona
Tossup: Georgia

TBD: Massachusetts (safe R if Baker runs, safe D if he retires), New Hampshire (safe R if Sununu runs for re-election, lean D if he he chooses to run for senate instead)

Interesting.

[Chips]

No changes.

[NewYorkExpress]

My Ratings:

Alabama: Safe R

Alaska: Likely R

Arizona: Tossup/Tilt D

Arkansas: Safe R

California: Safe D

Colorado: Likely D

Connecticut: Likely D

Florida: Tossup/Tilt R

Georgia: Tossup/Tilt D

Hawaii: Safe D

Idaho: Safe R

Illinois: Lean D

Iowa: Likely R

Kansas: Safe R

Maine: Likely D

Maryland: Safe D

Massachusetts: Lean D

Michigan: Lean D

Minnesota: Lean D

Nebraska: Safe R

Nevada: Tossup/Tilt D

New Hampshire: Tossup/Tilt D

New Mexico: Likely D

New York: Safe R if Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Safe D with any other Democrat

Ohio: Tossup/Tilt R

Oklahoma: Safe R

Oregon: Safe D

Pennsylvania: Tossup/Tilt D

Rhode Island: Lean D

South Carolina: Likely R

South Dakota: Safe R

Tennessee: Safe R

Texas: Lean R

Vermont: Lean D

Wisconsin: Tossup/Tilt R

Wyoming: Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI isn't Tily R every poll came out had Evers and Nelson ahead

[Chips]

I'm still quite happy with these ratings today. Sorry for not updating this in a while.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need desperately a poll in KS and AZ and MA, those Govs can go either way