Johnson pulls off reelection in 1968, setting the stage for a showdown in '72.

[its_gi_brown]

Johnson Administration makes decision regarding a plan in Vietnam
April 7, 1970


President Lyndon Johnson had a press conference today, in which he clearly stated his plan for Vietnam. This comes after skirmishes with Viet Cong guerillas along the 17th parallel rocked his plan, and only further harmed his image to the American public. His decision was surprisingly swift regarding the events, and we have yet to know how it will effect the upcoming elections in contrast to the other option.


REPORTER: Mr. President, what exactly is your plan for Vietnam with the fighting on the parallel? Will you stay in Vietnam or go?

JOHNSON: I've been expecting this question now, and you all deserve an answer. We will still be out by the fourth. I made a promise to the American people and I intend to keep it. I know people will be upset with me, but I tell it like it is, and what it is is a no-win war if our peace agreement breaks down within months. I can't justify getting American boys killed in a country with its own army and weapons.




LBJ's approval ratings
April 7, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 49%
Approve: 45%

[its_gi_brown]

United States withdrawal from Vietnam proceeds
April 11, 1970


Approximately 70% of US troops have now left Vietnam, according to last week's State Department progress report. South Vietnam has now engaged in open combat with Viet Cong guerillas, and they seem to be dealing with them effectively, but it is now likely that North Vietnam, with its professional army, will intervene and fight the South in open warfare. However, South Vietnam's current success in dealing with the Viet Cong have caused the panic in the nation to recede enough to resume the orderly evacuation of American troops from the country.

Many military analysts here in the USA have stated their belief that the confidence people have in South Vietnam is misplaced and that it will fall within a year of American withdrawal, but the Johnson Administration is nonetheless enjoying a surge of popularity from the now-smooth withdrawal.




LBJ's approval ratings
April 11, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 48%
Approve: 47%

[its_gi_brown]

It's looking good for LBJ's Vietnam withdrawal gamble, for now
June 15, 1970


90% of American troops are now out of Vietnam, and South Vietnam is in full-on combat with the Viet Cong guerillas. The ARVN seems to be barely holding off waves of Viet Cong attacks. Nonetheless, the fact that the beleaguered South Vietnamese are above water at all is good for President Johnson and his Democratic allies in Washington. This is demonstrable by the fact that Johnson's approval rating is positive for the first time since March, a significant achievement for the Johnson Administration. Polling also has the Democratic Party winning the House and the Senate, but by slim margins. If the Democratic Party holds this until election day, they will win narrowly, but all of their hopes rely on the South Vietnamese staving off destruction, or their gamble will have failed.




LBJ's approval ratings
June 15, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 47%
Dispprove: 47%

[its_gi_brown]

United States successfully withdraws last troops from Vietnam
July 2, 1970


Today, the men of the 543nd Infantry Regiment boarded a transport jet bound to the United States. These were the last American troops on duty in Vietnam. As they left, Vietnam writhed in turmoil, an unpopular government holding off an emboldened guerilla army. The war seems to be a stalemate, with both sides taking heavy casualties while making little progress. If North Vietnam enters the war, which is expected eventually, South Vietnam would fall quickly. The Democratic Party is banking on this not happening before election day. It is unclear when the North Vietnamese will join, and until then, the Democratic Party is barely in the clear.




LBJ's approval ratings
July 2, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 48%

[its_gi_brown]

The situation of the 1970 midterms
as of July 18, 1970


House of Representatives forecasts from major organizations and pundits

Democratic: 237
Republican: 198

Democratic: 232
Republican: 203

Democratic: 228
Republican: 207

Democratic: 224
Republican: 211

Democratic: 234
Republican: 201

Democratic: 221
Republican: 214

Democratic: 226
Republican: 209

Republican: 218
Democratic: 217


Average:

Democratic: 229
Republican: 206


United States Senate predictions from major organizations and pundits

Democratic: 50
Republican: 50

Democratic: 51
Republican: 49

Republican: 52
Democratic: 48

Democratic: 52
Republican: 48

Democratic: 50
Republican: 50

Republican: 51
Democratic: 49

Democratic: 52
Republican: 48

Republican: 52
Democratic: 48


Average:

Democratic: 50
Republican: 50




LBJ's approval rating
July 18, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 49%
Approve: 49%

[its_gi_brown]

Viet Cong makes new ground against ARVN forces
August 20, 1970


The AP reports that Viet Cong forces have won several key battles crippling the South Vietnamese war effort, to the dismay of Lyndon Johnson and Congressional Democrats. The ARVN is still fighting hard to make up lost ground, but with North Vietnamese intervention looming, a South Vietnamese victory is looking less and less likely.




LBJ's approval rating
August 20, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 50%
Approve: 48%

[its_gi_brown]

Polling for each Republican potential candidate against Hubert Humphrey
August 22, 1970


Nelson Rockefeller: 51%
Hubert Humphrey: 49%

John Anderson: 51%
Hubert Humphrey: 48%

Ronald Reagan: 50%
Hubert Humphrey: 49%

Hubert Humphrey: 50%
Daniel Evans: 49%

Hubert Humphrey: 52%
John Tower: 47%




LBJ's approval rating
August 22, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 50%
Approve: 48%

[its_gi_brown]

North Vietnam invades South Vietnam
September 2, 1970


In a widely expected but nonetheless momentous occasion, the People's Army of Vietnam (PAVN) has crossed the border into South Vietnam to assist in its invasion. The ARVN is currently engaged with the PAVN in several large cities, and although they are putting up a good fight, South Vietnam is expected to fall within a month. This comes as an especially crippling blow to the Democrats' chances this November, which hinged on South Vietnam not falling to the North. They have already seized hundreds of miles of territory on the 17th parallel, and Siagon is expected to fall in weeks.




LBJ's approval rating
September 2, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 50%
Approve: 47%

[its_gi_brown]

North Vietnamese troops encircle Siagon, capture city
September 21, 1970


This morning, North Vietnamese soldiers captured the city of Saigon, the capital of South Vietnam. North Vietnam is now the de-facto government of a newly-unified Vietnam, and now they begin their long, arduous efforts in rebuilding their scarred, war-torn country. This comes as no shock to Americans, who have been watching the invasion for weeks, but it still hurts Lyndon Johnson badly. And what hurts LBJ hurts every Democrat in Washington, as a newly-released poll has shown that the Republicans are now the favorite to retake both houses of Congress in the upcoming elections. In an ironic reversal of the situation a year ago, Republicans are poised to strike decisively this fall.




LBJ's approval rating
September 21, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 51%
Approve: 46%

[its_gi_brown]

Recent polling shows Republicans up drastically, even in 1972
October 1, 1970


Opinion polling for the 1972 presidential election shows Hubert Humphrey trailing all but one possible Republican candidate, John Tower. This only underscores the ramifications of the fall of South Vietnam, an event that might have lasting effect past these midterms.


1972 electoral map, according to current polling

Republican: 257
Democratic: 100
Tossup: 181

Republicans are predicted to have an advantage in blue states, while Democrats are predicted to have an advantage in red states. Grey states are tossups, which could go either way.




LBJ's approval rating
October 1, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 52%
Approve: 45%

[its_gi_brown]

The situation of the 1970 midterms
as of October 16, 1970


House of Representatives forecasts from major organizations and pundits

Democratic: 234
Republican: 198

Democratic: 235
Republican: 203

Democratic: 227
Republican: 207

Democratic: 225
Republican: 211

Republican: 239
Democratic: 196

Democratic: 223
Republican: 212

Republican: 221
Democratic: 214

Democratic: 221
Republican: 214



Average:

Democratic: 222
Republican: 213


United States Senate predictions from major organizations and pundits

Republican: 53
Democratic: 47


Democratic: 50
Republican: 50

Republican: 52
Democratic: 48

Democratic: 51
Republican: 49

Democratic: 50
Republican: 50

Republican: 53
Democratic: 47

Republican: 53
Democratic: 47

Republican: 51
Democratic: 49


Average:

Republican: 52
Democratic: 48




LBJ's approval rating
July 18, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 50%
Approve: 46%

[its_gi_brown]

Harvard special panel of analysts and pollsters reveals predictions for midterms
October 24, 1970


In anticipation of the hotly contested elections in a little over a week, famed Ivy League school Harvard University has hosted a live discussion panel with the goal of predicting the results of the elections in an unbiased, realistic way. The panel consists of the following analysts and other professionals:

Dr. Henry T. Cahill, Gallup Polling Services
Dr. Mason V. Daugherty, University of Alabama
Dr. Eugene R. Seitzmann, Duke University
Mr. Walter Goldweitner, Harris Interactive
Dr. Abner R. Blue, National Opinion Research Center (Univ. of Chicago)
Mr. Marvin McDougal, University of Massachusetts
Miss Henrietta T. Hamlin, Wellesley College

The following is a segment of the transcript of their live discussion.

MODERATOR: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It is my pleasure to host you here at Harvard University, and I, on behalf of Harvard as a whole, genuinely hope that this discussion remains civil, productive, and constructive.

DR. CAHILL: Of course, Mr. Brown. Thank you to the University of Harvard for letting us use this beautiful venue.

MISS HAMLIN: Yes, I also thank you for allowing us to use this building to facilitate positive discussion.

MR. McDOUGAL: As do I.

DR. DAUGHERTY: And me as well, and everyone else on this panel.

DRS. BLUE and SEITZMANN: *laughter*

DR. SEITZMANN: Yeah, that sums it up.

MR. GOLDWEITNER: Indeed. Now let's get on the topic at hand. I have analyzed and supervised polling efforts at Harris Interactive for five years now, and the election polling data I have suggests that Democrats are not as, um, screwed as the public thinks they are. Our last poll, from, er, two days ago, has Democrats down in the Senate by 1.7 points nationally, significantly less than most major predictions have it. And-

DR. CAHILL: Most major predictions have it at around 2.9%. When you say that, you mean 2.9%, right?

MR. GOLDWEITNER: Yeah.

DR. DAUGHERTY: My guys have them at 2.3%.

DR. CAHILL: And how many house seats do the Democrats get in your prediction, Mr. Goldweitner?

MR. GOLDWEITNER: 226.


The discussion went on for two and a half hours before they drafted a final conclusion for what the midterm results would look like.

Harvard University discussion panel final conclusion:

House of Representatives election forecast:

Democratic: 225
Republican: 210


United States Senate election forecast:

Republican: 53
Democratic: 47


If all of this turns out to be correct, the Democrats will have taken a beating, but not nearly as bad as it could have been. The consensus among the seven was that presidential approval ratings have some effect on Senate elections but little on house elections, as it is easier for the latter to disassociate itself from the unpopular President Johnson than the former.




LBJ's approval rating
October 24, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 49%
Approve: 46%

[its_gi_brown]

Election Night
November 3, 1970

6:15 P.M.

Lyndon Johnson was in his office once again, surrounded by Humphrey and a few other aides, assistants, and advisors. The air was thick with dread as the thunderstorm thrashed against the window outside. The crackling black and white television set and the overcast sky outside cast a grey, ghostly light on their faces. It felt as if there was an imminent death in the family. They quietly talked amongst each other, at first small talk, but real questions too. They had all seen that Harvard panel last week, and each and every one of them were hoping that their grim yet optimistic prediction came true. Even if it was a pipe dream and they were wrong, it gave them hope, something that they desperately needed as the stars aligned against them over the past several months. They sat, waiting for the results to start rolling in on CBS News.


6:29 P.M.

The results of the last midterm poll taken before it happened were revealed.

House of Representatives polling:

Democrats: 224
Republicans: 211

United States Senate polling:

Republicans: 51
Democrats: 49


6:45 P.M.

"You're sh*tting me," said LBJ to an intern who handed him the paper pamphlet. "There is no way we are keeping the Senate that close."
"Don't shoot the messenger, Mr. President," replied the dejected young intern quietly.
"No, boy, don't get upset," said LBJ quietly, realizing the deflated attitude of the intern right away. "I'm glad you showed me this. It gives me motivation. Motivation that we might not lose as bad as everyone thinks we will. We're Democrats. We fight back. Who knows, we could even pull off a Truman-style win, like in 1948. And if we lose right now, 1972 is right on the horizon. Point is, it's never over for us, even if we get wrecked in an election. There's always a chance to win on the horizon. You hear me, son?"
The boy nodded, a bit more reassured. "Thank you, Mr. President."
Lyndon Johnson turned around. "Call me Lyndon."


7:58 P.M.

It s is not a good night to be a Democrat.


8:58 P.M.

The race is as follows:

House:

D: 141
R: 162
Uncalled: 132

Senate:

R: 51
D: 42
Uncalled: 7

Analysis:

The beating the Democratic Party is taking is larger than anyone has expected. Republicans have a commanding lead in the outstanding Senate races, and the House of Representatives is too close to make a call for.

[its_gi_brown]

1970 Midterm Results, finalized
November 4, 1970


House of Representatives:

Democratic: 220
Republican: 215

Senate:

Republican: 54
Democratic: 46

Gubernatorial elections, which I have completely forgotten about until now:

Republican: 32
Democratic: 28


Despite the utter shellacking Democrats took last night, they retained control of the House, a bright spot in an otherwise unbearable night for them.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Interesting tho based on what you told me I would have assumed the GOP took the house as well

[its_gi_brown]

Who will Hubert Humphrey choose as his running mate in 1972?
November 17, 1970


Although the 1972 presidential election is two years away, questions persist about who the presumed Democratic nominee, Hubert H. Humphrey, will choose to be his running mate. The most common names are Senator Ed Muskie (D-Maine), Senator Scoop Jackson (D-Washington), and Senator Fred Harris (D-Oklahoma), but other names have been mentioned, such as Governor John Connally (D-Texas) and Congressman Mo Udall (D-Arizona). Someone has even mentioned infamous Alabama governor George Wallace, although this is unlikely. To the best of our ability, we have listed these potential running mates, along with crucial information about them.

• Ed Muskie

Office: Senator from Maine

Ideology: Modern Liberal

Pros: Comes from Maine, a state that leans Republican on general elections, and would almost certainly net its four electoral votes for Humphrey. He also brings geographical balance to the ticket, as he is halfway across the country from Humphrey's home state of Minnesota. He is also well-respected in the Senate.

Cons: Has little impact other than Maine, and would not be ideal for energizing younger voters. He would also bring the ticket little ideological balance.

Likeliness to be selected: High

• Scoop Jackson

Office: Senator from Washington

Ideology: Cold War Liberal

Pros: Comes from Washington, which is anticipated to be highly competitive. He also is a hardline anti-communist, and would bring the ticket foreign policy experience. Additionally, he is well known nationally.

Cons: Would bring the ticket little ideological balance, as he is ideologically similar to Humphrey, and his hardline stance on communism and support of more defense spending would likely turn off young voters.

Chance of being selected: High

• Fred Harris

Office: Senator from Oklahoma

Ideology: Liberal

Pros: Brings geographical balance to the ticket as a Southerner, and his young age and liberal views would energize young voters. Although Oklahoma will likely not be winnable for Humphrey, it could put other Southern states in play (this is also because of his rural upbringing).

Cons: Brings little ideological balance to the ticket, and his liberal views may alienate conservative Democrats. There are also concerns about someone as young as he is being next in line to the presidency.

Chance of being selected: Medium

• John Connally

Office: Governor of Texas

Views: Conservative Democrat

Pros: Almost certainly nets Texas for Humphrey, and greatly improves Democratic competitiveness in the South across the board. He also brings ideological and geographical balance to the ticket, and could reassure conservative and moderate Democrats who otherwise would have voted Republican.

Cons: It will cost Humphrey dearly in the North, especially among minority voters and workers, as the South is more conservative on civil rights and labor issues, especially if Rockefeller or Anderson is nominated for president. Selecting Connally would be a huge gamble.

Chance of being selected: Medium/Low

• Mo Udall

Office: Congressman from Arizona

Ideology: Liberal, but an oddball on many issues

Pros: Brings both ideological and geographical balance to the ticket, and reinforces your appeal to independents

Cons: Is almost unknown outside of Arizona, and brings little advantage to any particular swing states

Chance of being selected: Medium/Low

• George Wallace

Office: Governor of Alabama

Ideology: Southern Segregationist Democrat

Pros: Please do not pick George Wallace

Cons: Please do not pick George Wallace

Chance of being selected: Please god no




LBJ's approval rating
November 17, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 48%
Approve: 47%

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

• George Wallace

Office: Governor of Alabama

Ideology: Southern Segregationist Democrat

Pros: Please do not pick George Wallace

Cons: Please do not pick George Wallace

Chance of being selected: Please god no

Very subtle editorialism from the author of this article.

[its_gi_brown]

• George Wallace

Office: Governor of Alabama

Ideology: Southern Segregationist Democrat

Pros: Please do not pick George Wallace

Cons: Please do not pick George Wallace

Chance of being selected: Please god no

Very subtle editorialism from the author of this article.

Yes. If you read behind the lines, you can figure out that this author actually isn't a fan of George Wallace.

[its_gi_brown]

Polling for November 1970 gubernatorial elections released
December 1, 1970

This afternoon, Gallup released its first polls for the gubernatorial races in Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi. Since the primaries have not yet occurred, voters were asked a simple question:

If the election for governor of your state was held today, which party would you vote for?

Louisiana

Democratic: 52%
Republican: 46%


Kentucky

Republican: 53%
Democratic: 44%


Mississippi

Democratic: 69%
Republican: 22%


It should be noted that despite the loss of the Solid South in the 1968 presidential election to George Wallace and Richard Nixon, statewide and local Democrats are still favored in the region. Ironically, the Republican nominee will likely sweep the south against Minnesota liberal Hubert Humphrey, but other Republican candidates in the south will lose to their Democratic opponents. This is a "really god damn weird thing, right?" as Harris Interactive pollster Eugene Seitzmann puts it. And he isn't alone. Yesterday, when average Americans were approached and asked about this, the general consensus was "Huh? Oh, yeah, that's weird, I guess. Who are you guys again?"




LBJ's approval rating
December 1, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 48%
Approve: 47%

[its_gi_brown]

December 9, 1970

John B. Anderson stepped into Governor George Wallace's office.
"Good morning, John. Take a seat," said Wallace sternly. John said the same to Wallace and then sat down in a leather chair in front of the heavy wooden desk, directly opposite the governor.
"Governor Wallace, I have a few questions for you," said Anderson, taking out a yellow legal pad and clicking a pen. "Concerning 1972."
"The election, I assume?" said Wallace.
"Yes," replied John, "and I want you to be honest with me."
"Be careful what you wish for," retorted Wallace slowly.
"As you know, I'm a moderate, liberal Republican," started John, "and Humphrey is a liberal Democrat. If I or Nelson Rockefeller, another liberal Republican, get the nomination, will you bolt to a third party like you did in 1968?" Wallace opened his mouth, but paused, as if he was hesitating to give the answer he had in mind. He started speaking almost abruptly.
"Legal segregation is probably never coming back, to be quite honest with you. It's a sinking ship," he quipped, as John wrote on his pad. "I know for a fact Humphrey won't budge on desegregation, and I think you wouldn't either. However, you would have to if you wanted the presidency. So this creates an opening for me."
"That means you'll run?"
"It means it is possible. If someone like, say, Tower gets the nomination, I can work with him because he has similar positions on civil rights compared to me."
"So you'll run?" asked John tensely.
"I don't know, John."
"That's all I need to know, Governor," said John. He stood up and walked to the door. "And thank you for your time, George."

[its_gi_brown]

State of the field of potential GOP candidates
December 22, 1970


Probable GOP candidates

Nelson Rockefeller: Has publicly expressed interest in running and has formed a "testing the waters" committee

Ronald Reagan: Has formed a "testing the waters" committee, rumored to be entering in April

John Anderson: says he is "probably going to run"

Daniel Evans: Has not made a statement, but rumored to make a decision in March

John Tower: Likely will run

Spiro Agnew: not running

Barry Goldwater: not running

Richard Nixon: not running

Harold Stassen: Likely will run




LBJ's approval rating
December 22, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 49%
Approve: 47%

[its_gi_brown]

1971 State of the Union address
February 13, 1971


Today, the embattled President Lyndon B. Johnson gave his State of the Union address to a congress split down the middle with Democrats and Republicans. He asserted that the economy is strong, the riots have ended, and the war-torn country of Vietnam is on a road to recovery. He emphasized that the past year was difficult, but the nation is on the right track and he is optimistic for 1971.

Good evening, my fellow Americans. I speak to you after a year that has been difficult for many people, both here and abroad. The people of Vietnam had to endure a devastating civil war, the people of America had to endure an economic downturn that has made many people jobless, stripped of their livelihoods. To all of you who have felt the effects of last year, I have but one thing to say: Things are getting better. The economy has been booming, the war is over, and the country is overall on a better track then it has been on. This is a time for healing, and I look forward to working with congressional Democrats and Republicans over the next two years.

His speech has been generally well-received for striking a balance between optimism and honesty, but it is not known how this will effect his approval rating.




LBJ's approval rating
February 13, 1971

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 48%
Approve: 48%