Did Biden win more raw black votes than Obama?

[Motorcity]

The data would suggest yes

In 2008, Obama won roughly 15 million black votes. The electorate was 20.9% African American and he won 94% of the black vote. The electorate was about 122 million people

In 2020, the electorate was about 156 million people. Biden won 88% of the black vote. I haven't found any sources on what percentage of the electorate blacks made up.

That said, the African American population is about 12% of the country but historically they have voted at higher rates. Typically they make up between 15-20% of the electorate

Thoughts?

[Ferguson97]

Yeah, that's what 12 years of population growth and the highest turnout in 100 years will get you.

[Agafin]

First off, Black people have never been 20.9% of the electorate, dunno where you got that from. According to exit polls, 12-13% of the electorate have been black since 2008.

And to answer the question: Yes, Biden got more black votes than Obama.

[Adam Griffin]

Yes. Even with a relatively wide range of approximations and a historically bad performance by Biden, it's undeniable. Clinton also may have narrowly edged out Obama-12 in this regard.

My estimates:

D-2004: 13.0m (10.7% of electorate)
D-2008: 16.2m (12.3% of electorate)
D-2012: 15.6m (12.1% of electorate)
D-2016: 15.8m (11.5% of electorate)
D-2020: 17.9m (11.3% of electorate)

[DINGO Joe]

Yes. Even with a relatively wide range of approximations and a historically bad performance by Biden, it's undeniable. Clinton also may have narrowly edged out Obama-12 in this regard.

My estimates:

D-2004: 13.0m (10.7% of electorate)
D-2008: 16.2m (12.3% of electorate)
D-2012: 15.6m (12.1% of electorate)
D-2016: 15.8m (11.5% of electorate)
D-2020: 17.9m (11.3% of electorate)

I thought it was pretty well established that black turnout was higher in 2012 than 2008

Louisiana has specific turnout numbers post election and black turnout by year

2004 532,000
2008 584,000
2012 617,000
2016 584,000
2020 609,000

[DINGO Joe]

The data would suggest yes

In 2008, Obama won roughly 15 million black votes. The electorate was 20.9% African American and he won 94% of the black vote. The electorate was about 122 million people

In 2020, the electorate was about 156 million people. Biden won 88% of the black vote. I haven't found any sources on what percentage of the electorate blacks made up.

That said, the African American population is about 12% of the country but historically they have voted at higher rates. Typically they make up between 15-20% of the electorate

Thoughts?

What country are you in?

[Adam Griffin]

Yes. Even with a relatively wide range of approximations and a historically bad performance by Biden, it's undeniable. Clinton also may have narrowly edged out Obama-12 in this regard.

My estimates:

D-2004: 13.0m (10.7% of electorate)
D-2008: 16.2m (12.3% of electorate)
D-2012: 15.6m (12.1% of electorate)
D-2016: 15.8m (11.5% of electorate)
D-2020: 17.9m (11.3% of electorate)

I thought it was pretty well established that black turnout was higher in 2012 than 2008

Louisiana has specific turnout numbers post election and black turnout by year

2004 532,000
2008 584,000
2012 617,000
2016 584,000
2020 609,000

Southern Black turnout definitely was up in both '08 and '12, but elsewhere...not so much. There's a thread on AAD that discusses this dynamic, with the premise essentially being that the spike from 04-08 was entirely in the South (elsewhere, blacks did not turn out in any significantly elevated numbers between these two elections), and it continued to a disproportionate degree in the South between 08-12.  

Of course, elevated Southern Black turnout only led to wins in NC in 2008 and potentially FL in 2012, so it had no real impact on the outcome of either election. Especially with the remainder of the country seeing no comparably huge spike in 2012 and overall turnout dropping by several million votes, there is no chance that the black Democratic vote in raw terms or percentage terms was higher in that election.  

This is why the 2012 swing map looked like this:

[Adam Griffin]

15-20% of the electorate being black is only in certain states never as the country at large. Biden got more black votes than Obama 2008 and especially 2012. I have no idea if Biden got more net votes than Obama but he probably did as well, this considering McCain 2008 black support was nonexistent, Romney 2012 very small and Trump 2020(fairly decent for a republican overall and more than double the other two, but that's not saying much).

Eh...basically a tie by the same calculations I provided above:

2004-Black   Kerry     +11.1m
2008-Black   Obama   +15.6m
2012-Black   Obama   +14.6m
2016-Black   Clinton   +14.4m
2020-Black   Biden     +15.6m

[Chips]

Very possible.