Which of these events is the least likely

[Samof94]

Which of these events is the least likely?

[beesley]

I take issue with the idea that the EU would continue exactly as it is for the next 50 years, but if Hungary's relationship with them remained the same, I'd actually argue that or Quebec is the least likely.

[GregTheGreat657]

Hungary leaving the EU is the most likely, but WV and WY voting Democrat is the least likely.

[pikachu]

Tie between the first two though leaning slightly to Vietnam becoming a democracy. The current regime looks stable, it’ll probably be helped by tacit US backing for a while to come, and Southeast Asia doesn’t have a great record when it comes to democracy. I suppose as Vietnam develops more, it could see it pull off a Taiwan or South Korea, but I’d always bet against that. That being said, the only reasons I’m putting independent Quebec above it is because it almost happened in recent memory I guess the PQ/BQ are still relevant. Still seems way more unlikely than the other three.

[Alben Barkley]

Depends on the timescale. WV and WY voting Democratic is highly unlikely in the short term, obviously, but if we're talking about the next 50 years for that (and all of the others for that matter), it's not so crazy. Hell, would have seemed crazy 50 years ago to think WV would be so Republican today. If we're talking about 50 years for all of them, or just ever, I think Quebec actually seceding is the least likely. The movement for that seems to just be decreasing in power and the odds of it ever happening shrinking over time. I don't see what is likely to reverse that. The moment for that to happen came and went. If it didn't happen in 1995 I don't see it ever happening. That was the high water mark for the movement and it's been all downhill from there.

[Samof94]

Depends on the timescale. WV and WY voting Democratic is highly unlikely in the short term, obviously, but if we're talking about the next 50 years for that (and all of the others for that matter), it's not so crazy. Hell, would have seemed crazy 50 years ago to think WV would be so Republican today. If we're talking about 50 years for all of them, or just ever, I think Quebec actually seceding is the least likely. The movement for that seems to just be decreasing in power and the odds of it ever happening shrinking over time. I don't see what is likely to reverse that. The moment for that to happen came and went. If it didn't happen in 1995 I don't see it ever happening. That was the high water mark for the movement and it's been all downhill from there.

Canada gave them concessions