Kamala Harris 2024 Vice Presidential nominee (assuming Biden...)

[Benjamin Frank]

...doesn't run for reelection.  (Should be self explanatory)

My one assumption is that Kamala Harris would choose a white male as her V.P nominee.  From the 1944 election on, Democratic Presidential nominees have always chosen a U.S Senator to be their Vice Presidential candidate, with the exception of 1984 when it was a member of the House of Representatives, but as Vice President Dan Quayle once said: I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy - but that could change."

Cabinet Members
1.Marty Walsh, Secretary of Labor
2.Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation
3.Antony Blinken, Secretary of State

U.S Senators
1.Mark Kelly, Arizona
2.Chris Murphy, Connecticut
3.Jon Ossoff, Georgia
4.Chris Van Hollen, Maryland
5.Jon Tester, Montana
6.Martin Heinrich, New Mexico
7.Sherrod Brown, Ohio
8.Jeff Markley, Oregon
9.Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island
10.Mark Warner, Virginia

Governors
1.Jared Polis, Colorado
2.John Carney, Delaware
3.J.B Pritzker, Illinois
4.Andy Beshear, Kentucky
5.John Bel Edwards, Louisiana
6.Tim Walz, Minnesota
7.Phil Murphy, New Jersey
8.Roy Cooper, North Carolina
9.Jay Inslee, Washington
10.Tony Evers, Wisconsin

Additions? Subtractions?

I'm sure there have been other posts on this, but I didn't see a recent one.

[President Johnson]

Andy Beshear would be an excellent choice.

[Zthomp]

Bob Casey? He would essentially guarantee a victory in Pennsylvania, though his senate seat is up that year

[Asenath Waite]

Bob Casey? He would essentially guarantee a victory in Pennsylvania, though his senate seat is up that year

Is he still pro-life? I'd think that would make him DOA on any VP shortlist in this day and age.

[Zthomp]

I know Bob Casey Sr was pro life. I'm not sure if Jr ever was.

[TarHeelDem]

I feel fairly confident saying that it would be one of the following (in approximate order of likelihood):

Tier I
Cooper
Beshear

Tier II
Buttigieg
Ossoff

Tier III
Wolf
Walz
Whitmer

[beesley]

It's a shame Inslee is from the West Coast and a #wealthyliberalelite because he would otherwise be the best candidate.

[President Johnson]

It's a shame Inslee is from the West Coast and a #wealthyliberalelite because he would otherwise be the best candidate.

He'd still be an excellent choice for a cabinet and senior White House position.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do we assume Biden isn't gonna run, he hasn't lost Congress yet, and he would be subject to investigation in the Hunter probe


He is gonna run assuming D's keep Congress, just like the DeSantis thread, repetitiveness

[Meatball Ron]

Beshear is probably the best choice all around (if and only if he wins reelection in '23), with his one major downside being that he doesn't provide a lift in any particular swing state / region.

Cooper is popular enough in NC that I think he could be hugely helpful in terms of winning the state, and he meets all the other major criteria, but I worry a little that he could be Tim Kaine 2.0. He's just not especially charismatic.

S. Brown comes with the mega-downside that we lose his Senate seat, but if come mid-2024 it appears he's DOA for reelection anyway (or if '22 went well enough that we don't need his seat to hold/win the Senate), then he'd be the best choice, even more so than Beshear. He provides great ideological balancing, he's very charismatic, people in the party really love him, he'd be a great governing partner, and while he may not help win OH he could have residual appeal elsewhere in the Midwest.

Ossoff could be good if Georgia elects a Democratic Governor in 2022 - he's obviously charismatic and helps in a major swing state - but I envision him having a long Senate career and maybe making a run for POTUS or VP further down the line.

I think Buttigieg is over-hyped here; he appeals to pretty much the exact same crowd as Harris - both are unpopular with the party's edge-lord leftist flank, and neither has enough "centrist" cred to bring in otherwise GOP voters, but both are broadly popular or at least acceptable to the middle 80% of Dems. I don't think Buttigieg provides any extra benefit in the Midwest either, given he hasn't held any sort of statewide office and is now based out of DC for all intents and purposes. I'd bet on him taking residence in Virginia once his stint at DOT is over, then running for office there down the line.

Not sure anyone else works here. Tester has the same issue as Brown with nominally less upside, Heinrich could maybe be interesting but not sure what special appeal he adds. The rest feel like non-starters.

I agree that Kamala's running mate probably has to be white OR male, but I wouldn't necessarily agree that it has to be both (though I do agree that's the likeliest outcome). Whitmer and Castro could be interesting plays here if the white male field isn't appealing (especially if some of these candidates fall off the list, say Beshear loses reelection, Brown finds himself with an actual chance of winning reelection, etc.)

[S019]

In terms of likelihood, well I made this list a while back

Here's my guesses (note not my preferences, but who I see as the most likely)

1. Andy Beshear (easier to pick him if he wins in 2023, but his chances still are decent, even if he loses): Governor from a red state who has handled coronavirus well. His moderate image could help Harris reach out to moderates, and while he won't put KY in play, Southern whites in places like NC/GA/FL might be more likely to see "one of their own" on the Democratic ticket
2. Pete Buttigieg: Young and charismatic former mayor from the Midwest. He will likely get a foreign policy spot in the Biden adminstration, and if he does he would help the Harris ticket on foreign policy. Also has a moderate profile, similar to Beshear, which allows him to reach out to moderate voters, however, would also be a historic pick as the first LGBTQ+ person on the ticket
3. Andrew Cuomo: NY Governor who has received praise on his handling of the coronavirus and has experience in Washington-style politics as he served as HUD Secretary under Clinton. Generic mainstream Democrat who's acceptable to all wings of the party
4. Tammy Baldwin: WI Senator, who has a record of winning in the key state. Fairly liberal profile, so an olive branch to progressives, who might not be completely on board with Harris, if she runs a very cautious/moderate campaign, however still has a record of winning by fairly large margins in WI. Also would be a historic pick as the first LGBTQ+ person on the ticket.
5. Stacey Abrams (this really requires her to win GA-GOV, but I think she will): Young, charismatic and an olive branch to progressives. Liberal views, but still very acceptable to moderate/establishment Democrats. Also an all minority ticket would likely energize minority turnout, which could be pivotal in states like GA.
6. Gretchen Whitmer (this relies on her winning re-election in 2022, which I think she does): Governor of MI, has received high praise for her handling of coronavirus. Also on the more moderate wing of the party, however has wide appeal across the entirety of the party, similar to Cuomo.

I'd say these are more-or-less the top 6 choices this far out, and here's a quick synopsis of why each choice is good.

So, other than Cuomo (blech), this list actually aged pretty well. Though I'd probably move Buttigieg up and Abrams up too, updated list:

Buttigieg (while he didn't get a foreign policy spot, given Biden's emphasis on infrastructure, Transportation is actually a pretty important job in the admin)
Beshear (see above)
Abrams (see above+flipping GA and leading the fight against the new voter suppression bills)
Baldwin (see above)
Whitmer (see above)

[Utah Neolib]

If Biden and Harris is popular, and the Republican candidate is a joke, it will be Heinrich.
If she really needs to win Georgia, it will be Ossoff.
If she has a very hard time appealing to progressives, it will be Brown.
If she needs North Carolina badly for whatever reason, it will be Roy Cooper.
If she needs the Michigan, it will be Gary Peters.




Harris/Peters 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will run, he knows that Rs are 0/3 against him as Veep and as Prez

All the R users think Trump whom mounted an Insurrectionists and Liz Cheney and Bush W said made them sick to their stomach, is only 4 yrs younger than Biden, MI, WI and PA with the Senate INCUMBENTs will never let Trump near the Prez again, he would lose in a LANDSLIDE

Rs are afraid of Biden that's why they want Harris and she won't pick Ossoff she would pick Polis whom is very similar to her husband, a state that she can win CO

[Del Tachi]

One name that hasn't come up yet that I think is worth mentioning:  Terry McAuliffe.  Assuming he's elected to a second term as VA-GOV later this year, he'd be someone who would be an immediately capable VP with deep institutional and partisan networks.  The downside is the instant Clinton/Kaine 2016 connotations and irking the progressive left; however, now that Dems control the VA legislature, I think McAuliffe could be in the position to develop some progressive policy chops before 2024.

I'll admit T-Mac probably isn't the likeliest choice at the moment, but he'll definitely be given a look by Harris.  I also think Inslee, Polis and Coons are underrated possibilities for Harris in '24.     

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One name that hasn't come up yet that I think is worth mentioning:  Terry McAuliffe.  Assuming he's elected to a second term as VA-GOV later this year, he'd be someone who would be an immediately capable VP with deep institutional and partisan networks.  The downside is the instant Clinton/Kaine 2016 connotations and irking the progressive left; however, now that Dems control the VA legislature, I think McAuliffe could be in the position to develop some progressive policy chops before 2024.


Biden already said he is a 2T Prez, if D's keep Congress, why would he retire, Rs have nothing on him in the Hunter Biden probe, because Rs are already tared with Russia

If Trump can be Prez at 78/ Biden can be Prez at 82
I'll admit T-Mac probably isn't the likeliest choice at the moment, but he'll definitely be given a look by Harris.  I also think Inslee, Polis and Coons are underrated possibilities for Harris in '24.     

[LabourJersey]

If Mark Kelly wins re-election in 2022 I think he'd be a strong contender for VP. His background and status as a popular swing-state senator would be a plus. Though depending on Gabby Giffords' condition he may not want to run on a national ticket, which I couldn't really blame him for.

I guess there's a chance the ticket would be "too Western" but I don't know if that would matter all that much.

[Adam Griffin]

Beshear is probably the best choice all around (if and only if he wins reelection in '23), with his one major downside being that he doesn't provide a lift in any particular swing state / region.

I would disagree with this at least somewhat. Appalachia is a region comprising nearly 10% of the US population and while its influence is diluted because of it, the region intersects multiple swing/nominally-close states that may have competitive presidential and/or statewide elections in 2024:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden said he was a 2T Prez, Harris isn't running until 2028, why would Ds jeopardize their Trifecta for a lightweight like Harris and the Rs can have total control in 2024/ if DeSantis is the R nominee. DeSantis won't beat Biden

Thats why the Mods should of created a 2022/ not a 2024 thread, Biden is gonna be our nominee unless he is impeached by an R H over Hunter Biden

If Harris runs, Rs might get the Trifecta, she isn't ready until 2028

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I feel fairly confident saying that it would be one of the following (in approximate order of likelihood):

Tier I
Cooper
Beshear

Tier II
Buttigieg
Ossoff

Tier III
Wolf
Walz
Whitmer

Wolf would've been a slam dunk running mate choice for her if she was the nominee in 2020, but I think he'll be too old. He'll also be two years out of politics (Or six if its 2028), so he'll probably fade from her radar.

[Meatball Ron]

Beshear is probably the best choice all around (if and only if he wins reelection in '23), with his one major downside being that he doesn't provide a lift in any particular swing state / region.

I would disagree with this at least somewhat. Appalachia is a region comprising nearly 10% of the US population and while its influence is diluted because of it, the region intersects multiple swing/nominally-close states that may have competitive presidential and/or statewide elections in 2024:

Is there much evidence that VP picks help in states that are simply neighboring their home state, as opposed to their actual home state? I guess I could see certain cases (e.g., New England, Rust Belt) but it feels a little harder to argue that a Kentuckian would help in, say Georgia or Pennsylvania.

[Adam Griffin]

Beshear is probably the best choice all around (if and only if he wins reelection in '23), with his one major downside being that he doesn't provide a lift in any particular swing state / region.

I would disagree with this at least somewhat. Appalachia is a region comprising nearly 10% of the US population and while its influence is diluted because of it, the region intersects multiple swing/nominally-close states that may have competitive presidential and/or statewide elections in 2024:

Is there much evidence that VP picks help in states that are simply neighboring their home state, as opposed to their actual home state? I guess I could see certain cases (e.g., New England, Rust Belt) but it feels a little harder to argue that a Kentuckian would help in, say Georgia or Pennsylvania.

Personally I don't think VP picks even help in their home states, but for those who believe that picking them can help with a particular region (as you mentioned) or demographic, my point was that Beshear represents/did well in a particular area that straddles multiple important states.

I'd also argue that (per your example) Appalachian Georgians, Appalachian Pennsylvanians and Appalachian Kentuckians have more culturally in common with one another than they do with others in their respective states.

[Meatball Ron]

Beshear is probably the best choice all around (if and only if he wins reelection in '23), with his one major downside being that he doesn't provide a lift in any particular swing state / region.

I would disagree with this at least somewhat. Appalachia is a region comprising nearly 10% of the US population and while its influence is diluted because of it, the region intersects multiple swing/nominally-close states that may have competitive presidential and/or statewide elections in 2024:

Is there much evidence that VP picks help in states that are simply neighboring their home state, as opposed to their actual home state? I guess I could see certain cases (e.g., New England, Rust Belt) but it feels a little harder to argue that a Kentuckian would help in, say Georgia or Pennsylvania.

Personally I don't think VP picks even help in their home states, but for those who believe that picking them can help with a particular region (as you mentioned) or demographic, my point was that Beshear represents/did well in a particular area that straddles multiple important states.

I'd also argue that (per your example) Appalachian Georgians, Appalachian Pennsylvanians and Appalachian Kentuckians have more culturally in common with one another than they do with others in their respective states.

Yeah, that all makes sense - it seems possible in theory but have a hard time seeing it play out in practice. Re: whether VP picks help in their home state, I think it depends on a few things like whether they represented it statewide (e.g., widely agreed that Paul Ryan didn't help Romney in WI), size of the state (probably more influential in a smaller state / state where retail politics matters, etc.) We don't really have good examples b/c there haven't been swing state VP nominees recently (WI wasn't a swing state in 2012 and Ryan doesn't really count since he didn't rep it statewide, and I wouldn't consider NC a swing state in 2004), but it's not that hard to imagine Whitmer helping in MI, Brown narrowing the gap a bit in OH, Cooper helping in NC, etc. I guess that Governors and longtime Senators > shorter-term Senators.

[Real Texan Politics]

My gut says she chooses a woman in order to make history as the first all female presidential ticket for a major political party.

Now if we were gonna narrow it down to senators, here's a list of every female democratic senator.

Kyrsten Sinema (AZ)
Dianne Feinstein (CA)
Mazie Hirono (HI)
Tammy Duckworth (IL)
Elizabeth Warren (MA)
Debbie Stabenow (MI)
Amy Klobuchar (MN)
Tina Smith (MN)
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)
Jacky Rosen (NV)
Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
Maggie Hassan (NH)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
Patty Murray (WA)
Maria Cantwell (WA)
Tammy Baldwin (WI)

I imagine many of them have little to no chance at becoming her running mate, either due to old age, being from a very competitive swing state, or possibly even being too moderate for Kamala's taste, and maybe a few other minor reasons. I will put up the list again, but cross out the ones that fall into those categories.

Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) (too moderate, up for re-election in a swing state)
Dianne Feinstein (CA) (too old (will be 91 on election day), also from the same state as Kamala)
Mazie Hirono (HI) (old age)
Tammy Duckworth (IL)
Elizabeth Warren (MA)
Debbie Stabenow (MI) (up for re-election in a swing state)
Amy Klobuchar (MN) (Chauvin stuff, up for re-election in a swing state)
Tina Smith (MN) (from swing state)
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) (from swing state, might get beaten in 2022)
Jacky Rosen (NV) (up for re-election in a swing state)
Jeanne Shaheen (NH) (old age)
Maggie Hassan (NH) (will probably be beaten by Chris Sununu in 2022)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
Patty Murray (WA)
Maria Cantwell (WA)
Tammy Baldwin (WI) (up for re-election in a swing state)

So that's 11/16 that I crossed out. Here's what we're left with.

Tammy Duckworth (IL)
Elizabeth Warren (MA)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
Patty Murray (WA)
Maria Cantwell (WA)

So now we're left with 5, but notice how two of them are from the same geographic region as Kamala. Assuming Kamala would want to pick a running mate from a different region of the country, that means Murray and Cantwell don't make the final cut. This means we're left with...

Tammy Duckworth (IL)
Elizabeth Warren (MA)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)

Of all female democratic senators, these are the 3 most likely. However, there are more questions to ask. If Kamala wants an all female ticket, would she want a racial balance between a black woman and a white woman? Or would she want to make more history by adding a 2nd minority to the ticket, therefore becoming the first major presidential ticket to not only feature two women, but also two racial minorities? If she were to want to go this route, then the only logical choice of those 3 finalists would be none other than....

Tammy Duckworth (IL)

Now for starters, though she was born in Bangkok, Thailand, she IS considered a natural born US citizen due to her father being American. Secondly, though she is from the safe democratic state of Illinois, it is in an area that is rather swingy, as the surrounding states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and (to a lesser extent now) Iowa are all considered battleground states. This could also make her appeal more to "middle America" rather than Warren and Gillibrand who are from the northeast elitist area of the US. Also correct me if I'm wrong, but would she be the first disabled person on a presidential ticket since FDR?

Anyways, to summarize this all, if Harris is committed to choosing a woman instead of a man, and if history says it all, look out for Tammy Duckworth to be her potential running mate!

Or maybe I'm crazy and made this all for nothing and her running mate will just be Cory Booker or something.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's a fairly basic response but: Andy Beshear (if re-elected) or Roy Cooper.

[Alben Barkley]

I’m just glad Andy’s even in the conversation. If it leads to him eventually becoming POTUS, even better. Remember our last Kentucky president was Abraham Lincoln! (No Illinois, we had him first!)