Student speech SCOTUS case: What will be the decision and who writes it?

[I’m not Stu]

The case is Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L.. It involves a Pennsylvania school district and a student. What will the outcome be? Who will write the majority opinion?

[Donerail]

Premature to ask this question before oral argument

[brucejoel99]

Only 3 things in life are certain: death, taxes, & Alito voting against student free speech rights. Beyond that, who knows?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I could see Gorsuch siding with the liberals on this one in defense of the student. So that means she could win if also Roberts does or an unexpected conservative defection (Kavanaugh does seem to have a bit of a pro-free speech records and who knows about ACB so not impossible.)

[I’m not Stu]

Only 3 things in life are certain: death, taxes, & Alito voting against student free speech rights. Beyond that, who knows?

Four things are certain. Don’t forget Thomas voting against student free speech rights.

[politicallefty]

I'm not going to vote in the poll until I've heard the oral arguments (which will be April 28th).

There haven't been many school speech rulings from the Supreme Court and really only one major one during the Roberts Court. Morse v. Frederick is completely different though. First, that case had to do with what happened during a school-supervised event. Secondly, many of the Justices seemed to really fixate on the illegal drug aspect. Neither of those apply in this case.

With that said, let's look at the likely definite votes. I think Sotomayor and Kagan are definite votes for the student. I would say Breyer is likely to do the same, although I'm not 100% sure about him. If the Court rules for the student, I could see him writing a concurrence. On the other side, Thomas is almost certainly going to vote for the school district. His concurrence in Morse shows how he views this issue. Alito is no stranger to voting against free speech rights, but he explicitly refused to join the Thomas concurrence in Morse. He seemed more concerned with the illegal drugs issue. I'm not totally convinced he's a certain vote for the school district.

I agree with BRTD that I would not all be surprised if Gorsuch sided with the student. Actually, I think he's quite likely to side with the student. Although it wasn't a First Amendment case, read Gorsuch's dissent in A.M. v. Holmes from when he was on the 10th Circuit.

I'm not really about Roberts or Kavanaugh. There's not much to read from the majority opinion in Morse that Roberts wrote. He was very careful to write a rather narrow opinion in that case. I could see him going either way, but he'll very likely be in the majority. I don't really know enough about Kavanaugh on this issue. As for Barrett, I have absolutely no idea.

As for who writes the opinion, I'll go out on a limb and say it'll either be Roberts or Gorsuch.

[I’m not Stu]

I don’t certainly know, but I think it will be a ruling in favor of the school district with a 6-3 party line vote or 5-4 with Roberts being the only conservative dissenter. I bet Alito writes the majority opinion. I bet Thomas writes a concurrence demanding Tinker v. Des Moines be overruled.

[politicallefty]

I don’t certainly know, but I think it will be a ruling in favor of the school district with a 6-3 party line vote or 5-4 with Roberts being the only conservative dissenter. I bet Alito writes the majority opinion. I bet Thomas writes a concurrence demanding Tinker v. Des Moines be overruled.

I hope you're wrong. This doesn't strike me as one of the partisan decisions of the Court. Free speech cases generally don't divide like that. Thomas has already written that he wants Tinker overturned, so that wouldn't be a surprise. One of the issues in this case is whether or not Tinker applies to off-campus speech, which is currently a split among the circuit courts.

[I’m not Stu]

I don’t certainly know, but I think it will be a ruling in favor of the school district with a 6-3 party line vote or 5-4 with Roberts being the only conservative dissenter. I bet Alito writes the majority opinion. I bet Thomas writes a concurrence demanding Tinker v. Des Moines be overruled.

I hope you're wrong. This doesn't strike me as one of the partisan decisions of the Court. Free speech cases generally don't divide like that. Thomas has already written that he wants Tinker overturned, so that wouldn't be a surprise. One of the issues in this case is whether or not Tinker applies to off-campus speech, which is currently a split among the circuit courts.

It strikes me as a partisan case.

[politicallefty]

I don’t certainly know, but I think it will be a ruling in favor of the school district with a 6-3 party line vote or 5-4 with Roberts being the only conservative dissenter. I bet Alito writes the majority opinion. I bet Thomas writes a concurrence demanding Tinker v. Des Moines be overruled.

I hope you're wrong. This doesn't strike me as one of the partisan decisions of the Court. Free speech cases generally don't divide like that. Thomas has already written that he wants Tinker overturned, so that wouldn't be a surprise. One of the issues in this case is whether or not Tinker applies to off-campus speech, which is currently a split among the circuit courts.

It strikes me as a partisan case.

Why? There's nothing to suggest a partisan result. Most free speech cases aren't determined upon those lines, apart from those dealing with a select few issues (i.e. campaign finance, unions, abortion, and religion).

Also, to make one note to my post above, there's a possibility of Kagan writing if the student wins. But overall, it'll likely be either Roberts or Gorsuch either way. Roberts is almost never in dissent on free speech cases since he's been on the Court. Things could be different since this a 6-3 conservative Court now, but even those on the right will often find themselves supporting free speech rights that you wouldn't typically believe. Just look at the great majority opinion written by Justice Scalia in Brown v. EMA protecting violent video games and the rights of minors. It's honestly a really great read, something I'd highly recommend.

[I’m not Stu]

I don’t certainly know, but I think it will be a ruling in favor of the school district with a 6-3 party line vote or 5-4 with Roberts being the only conservative dissenter. I bet Alito writes the majority opinion. I bet Thomas writes a concurrence demanding Tinker v. Des Moines be overruled.

I hope you're wrong. This doesn't strike me as one of the partisan decisions of the Court. Free speech cases generally don't divide like that. Thomas has already written that he wants Tinker overturned, so that wouldn't be a surprise. One of the issues in this case is whether or not Tinker applies to off-campus speech, which is currently a split among the circuit courts.

It strikes me as a partisan case.

Why? There's nothing to suggest a partisan result. Most free speech cases aren't determined upon those lines, apart from those dealing with a select few issues (i.e. campaign finance, unions, abortion, and religion).

Also, to make one note to my post above, there's a possibility of Kagan writing if the student wins. But overall, it'll likely be either Roberts or Gorsuch either way. Roberts is almost never in dissent on free speech cases since he's been on the Court. Things could be different since this a 6-3 conservative Court now, but even those on the right will often find themselves supporting free speech rights that you wouldn't typically believe. Just look at the great majority opinion written by Justice Scalia in Brown v. EMA protecting violent video games and the rights of minors. It's honestly a really great read, something I'd highly recommend.

Are Kavanaugh and Barrett anti-free speech tyrants like Thomas and Alito?

[politicallefty]

Are Kavanaugh and Barrett anti-free speech tyrants like Thomas and Alito?

I don't really know where either stand on free speech rights, but I don't think either really have the same free speech jurisprudence as Thomas or Alito. I'd say it's more likely that Barrett lines up with Scalia's beliefs on free speech, but I admit I base that on very little (as we really have very little to go on). As for Kavanaugh, he seems close to Roberts. I have a hard time understanding Roberts, but he does mostly err on the side of free speech rights.

[sguberman]

What's everyone opinion on the case anyway? I think her punishment was too much but I am not really convinced it violated the first amendment unless I am missing something.

[politicallefty]

What's everyone opinion on the case anyway? I think her punishment was too much but I am not really convinced it violated the first amendment unless I am missing something.

I think it's fairly straightforward. I don't think a school generally has the right to punish a student for what they say when they're completely off-campus and outside of the school environment. I could see limits around threatening or harassing speech, but those are largely dealt with at the outer bounds of other First Amendment jurisprudence. Let's just narrow down what this student said and let's just say she just said "f-ck school" or "f-ck cheer". She was not at school or at a school-supervised event. She was on her own time at a convenience store. I think it's absurd to think that a school has the right to punish someone under those circumstances. If it happened at school or during a school-sponsored event, I would say the "substantial disruption" test from Tinker would apply. This was neither though. The school had absolutely no right to punish the student for exercising her First Amendment rights.

[I’m not Stu]

What would the reaction be if it’s a partisan 5-4 decision with Roberts dissenting?

[Donerail]

What would the reaction be if it’s a partisan 5-4 decision with Roberts dissenting?

"Wow, what a weird and unexpected vote from every conservative justice not named Clarence Thomas" (and maybe even from him).

[I’m not Stu]

What would the reaction be if it’s a partisan 5-4 decision with Roberts dissenting?

"Wow, what a weird and unexpected vote from every conservative justice not named Clarence Thomas" (and maybe even from him).

What about Alito? I obviously mean a partisan 5-4 decision in favor of the school district with a majority of Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett.

[sguberman]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/student-speech-internet-schools-supreme-court/2021/04/28/cb71f67a-a79e-11eb-bca5-048b2759a489_story.html

Here's somewhat of a run down on the decision. Weirdly enough, according to this, Kavanaugh seemed to be the most sympathetic to the girl while Roberts seemed to be the most sympathetic to the school while the others felt more neutral or was unclear and the article doesn't mention what Gorsuch, Barrett, and Sotomayor views as they aren't brought up.