When will Maryland trend Republican?

[Suburbia]

When will Maryland trend Republican?

[TDAS04]

Possibly 2024, since Republicans could get a dead cat bounce.

[Chips]

2030's is when it will start to make it's way to become a GOP state in the future.

[Bootes Void]

When republicans start gaining with suburbanites

[Non Swing Voter]

Probably when Republicans renounce almost everything they stand for (hating science, suppressing black voters, flooding our streets with guns, and shoving their version of religion down everyone's throats).  I think when they renounce all that they'll be well positioned for improving in a highly diverse, highly educated, and mostly suburban state like Maryland.

[Frodo]

2030's is when it will start to make it's way to become a GOP state in the future.

Could you elaborate on how this could happen?  I am curious. 

[TarHeelDem]

I don't take it as a given that it ever will, to be honest, at least on any substantial level.

[TheReckoning]

Keep in mind Maryland has voted more GOP than the nation as a whole only 7 times in its history. So it’s not guaranteed to trend anywhere.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Trend Republican in a single election? Quite possibly 2024, as a regression to the mean (similar to Hawaii in 2016 or California in 2020.)

Start to trend Republican long-term? No idea, probably not soon.

[CadetCashBoi]

Keep in mind Maryland has voted GOP more than the nation as a whole only 6 times in its history. So it’s not guaranteed to trend anywhere.

Seems like it's managed to be a consistent Dem stronghold in every political alignment

[TheReckoning]

Keep in mind Maryland has voted GOP more than the nation as a whole only 6 times in its history. So it’s not guaranteed to trend anywhere.

Seems like it's managed to be a consistent Dem stronghold in every political alignment

The weak point was during the New Deal Era, when it went more GOP from 1944-1956. Why, I don’t know.

[THG]

Maryland is the one state that I am 100% positive will trend Dem in 2024 no matter what.

[MarkD]

Trend Republican in a single election? Quite possibly 2024, as a regression to the mean (similar to Hawaii in 2016 or California in 2020.)

Start to trend Republican long-term? No idea, probably not soon.

I agree.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

2024.

Oh, I forgot a digit.

20024.

[Skill and Chance]

Keep in mind Maryland has voted GOP more than the nation as a whole only 6 times in its history. So it’s not guaranteed to trend anywhere.

Seems like it's managed to be a consistent Dem stronghold in every political alignment

Well, it basically started with a rural Southern Dem + Baltimore working class Dem coalition (19th century-Great Depression), then it started suburbanizing early-ish and moved to the center quickly, but then the realignment of the black vote saved the Dems there post-1960.  It also helped in that era that the state was pretty Catholic for how far south it is.  Then you get the post 2008 suburban movement and it's just a total blowout. 

[Don't Tread on Me]

Probably not for a while. I think areas like Prince William county could grow to DC levels before maxing out, while I can see Montgomery County and surrounding counties growing as well. The biggest growth will probably come from  around Frederick and along the Southern and Eastern Coast. Dems winning upwards of 70% in an upcoming election wouldn't seem out of the question.

[THG]

2030's is when it will start to make it's way to become a GOP state in the future.

How?

Even California is probably more likely to be a GOP state than Maryland is at this point.

[Frodo]

2030's is when it will start to make it's way to become a GOP state in the future.

How?

Even California is probably more likely to be a GOP state than Maryland is at this point.

Maybe the GOP finally jettisons its white resentment strategy, and starts to capitalize on generational change by appealing to a growing population of upscale black families (among other minorities) in the suburbs and exurbs, especially in southern Maryland?  

I am waiting on census results with regard to the black population in St. Mary's, Calvert, and Anne Arundel counties, and to see how far along they are in turning them majority-minority like Prince George's and Charles counties.  

[THG]

2030's is when it will start to make it's way to become a GOP state in the future.

How?

Even California is probably more likely to be a GOP state than Maryland is at this point.

Maybe the GOP finally jettisons its white resentment strategy, and starts to capitalize on generational change by appealing to a growing population of upscale black families (among other minorities) in the suburbs and exurbs, especially in southern Maryland?  

I am waiting on census results with regard to the black population in St. Mary's, Calvert, and Anne Arundel counties, and to see how far along they are in turning them majority-minority like Prince George's and Charles counties.  

A lot of liberal GOP politicians have attempted that strategy you mentioned. It usually doesn't work. Even Larry Hogan himself probably won only 25% of the black vote (just a guess).


It isn't like the GOP needs to appeal to a state with the demographics of Maryland to win anyways, nor would they realistically be able to, because that would require a radical re-alignment far greater than 2016 or the 1990's.

[RINO Tom]

There was a poll a while back about which state was the “heart and soul” of each party, taking multiple things into account such as local politics, history/tradition, coalitions, etc.  My answer was, QUITE easily, Maryland (yes, I see the irony with their governor, lol).  So, I think it will be a while, though I haven’t analyzed the granular data.

[THG]

There was a poll a while back about which state was the “heart and soul” of each party, taking multiple things into account such as local politics, history/tradition, coalitions, etc.  My answer was, QUITE easily, Maryland (yes, I see the irony with their governor, lol).  So, I think it will be a while, though I haven’t analyzed the granular data.

I made this EXACT point about the “heart and soul” of the Dem party being Maryland in a post recently too.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=455566.0