Des Moines metro

[Roll Roons]

I know people love talking about Iowa. But there's one aspect of the state that's not discussed very much.

The Des Moines metro is growing very fast. Between 2010 and 2019, Polk County grew by 14% and Dallas grew by 41%. That rivals what we might see in suburban Atlanta.

What's driving the growth here? And what are the implications for the state's political future?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Biden won Polk County by over fifteen points, Hillary by eleven, Obama by fourteen (in 2012) and fifteen (in 2008). The fact that Biden won by the same margin as Obama in 2008 is impressive, especially since Obama won the state by nine points, while Biden lost by seven. So, what I gather is that the Des Moines area is getting more liberal, while the rest of the state gets more conservative.

[Hope For A New Era]

Des Moines is really a great city. That's all I can really say. People are moving there because it's a good place to live. It gives off a similar vibe to Omaha and Lincoln.

[VAR]

It’s growing, yet from such a low baseline. It’s also worth noting that the Dem swings in Dallas and Polk in 2020 weren’t particularly impressive.

[Gracile]

What I find interesting about Dallas County is that it actually was fairly Democratic-leaning relative to the nation during much of the late 20th century, but then started voting Republican consistently since 2000. I wonder if this is a case of population growth from suburban development (much of which happened in the late 90s/early 2000s) bringing in Republican voters, but the population succumbed to national trends drifting these voters from the GOP (as evidenced by the closeness of the 2020 result here, and to a lesser extent 2016).

[If my soul was made of stone]

What I find interesting about Dallas County is that it actually was fairly Democratic-leaning relative to the nation during much of the late 20th century, but then started voting Republican consistently since 2000. I wonder if this is a case of population growth from suburban development (much of which happened in the late 90s/early 2000s) bringing in Republican voters, but the population succumbed to national trends drifting these voters from the GOP (as evidenced by the closeness of the 2020 result here, and to a lesser extent 2016).

Anoka County, Minnesota, another noted Midwestern suburban/exurban county, has had a similar pattern, although it's always been a few points to the left of Dallas.

[Hope For A New Era]

What I find interesting about Dallas County is that it actually was fairly Democratic-leaning relative to the nation during much of the late 20th century, but then started voting Republican consistently since 2000. I wonder if this is a case of population growth from suburban development (much of which happened in the late 90s/early 2000s) bringing in Republican voters, but the population succumbed to national trends drifting these voters from the GOP (as evidenced by the closeness of the 2020 result here, and to a lesser extent 2016).

Seems to be the case. You find the same pattern in my own county (Platte, MO), which has a similar history of rural -> some exurb/suburb areas -> still mostly rural but very rapidly growing and suburbanizing, with rural areas that are unusually un-R.

It voted D from its creation in 1840 up to 1964 (except 1860 and 1872), barely flipped in 1968 (probably Wallace was a spoiler), and since then has only voted D in 1976 (narrowly) and 1992 (when Perot was probably a spoiler, he almost outperformed Bush even).

Aside from the 72/80/84 landslides, it reached max-R in 2012 and has trended D bigly since. Trump +3 in 2020. I rate it Tossup for 22 and 24.

[Sol]

Des Moines is a fairly white-collar metro area--the economy is heavily based in insurance and other corporate industries. That I think explains a lot about both the swings and the heavy growth--economically it's more of an Indianapolis rather than a Cleveland.

[Torie]

I keep waiting for Des Moines's "explosive" growth to transform the upland fields that my great grandparents bought in 1913 situated on the city limit line of the county seat of Madison County from dirt into gold -  via being subdivided into a couple of housing tracts. $$$$$$ for my heirs!  

[patzer]

My prediction for Iowa is that at some point- could be this redistricting cycle, could be the next one- the 3rd congressional district will shift a bit to being the district just for Des Moines and its suburbs, while the Council Bluffs area will go to the 4th.

It's possible this time even; Polk, Dallas, Warren, Jasper, Story, and Boone counties together are enough for a congressional district. If this happens, I think you'd see the Des Moines district growing increasingly Democratic as Des Moines grows, but the other three districts continue to shift more Republican. And the state of Iowa as a whole probably stays firmly Republican-leaning as it just doesn't seem like Des Moines is growing fast enough to keep the state competitive.