Is the Swing to Trump in LA, NYC,etc. overhyped?

[perpetual_cynic]

Despite the swings to Trump in NYC and Los Angeles, Biden received the 2nd highest percentage of the vote over the past four elections in Los Angeles city, second only to Clinton in 2016. Even the swing in NYC was not a huge swing, it should have been expected considering Obama's appeal to minority voters and this election being a white man versus a white man?

[Bootes Void]

In some inner city areas, Trump had the best performance for a republican in decades( granted it was a low bar and was bound to happen at some point). I don't think Trump's gains on these areas are overhyped, however I'm not sure if these areas can be considered "conservative " by any stretch, and are more likely to be populist at the end of the day. The only way for republican to keep and continue these gains is to be an actual populist party rather than talk like one especially on quality of life measures and economics

[perpetual_cynic]

In some inner city areas, Trump had the best performance for a republican in decades( granted it was a low bar and was bound to happen at some point). I don't think Trump's gains on these areas are overhyped, however I'm not sure if these areas can be considered "conservative " by any stretch, and are more likely to be populist at the end of the day. The only way for republican to keep and continue these gains is to be an actual populist party rather than talk like one especially on quality of life measures and economics

If we look at these areas in NYC, "best in decades" is limited to the Bronx, Upper Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn and Queens. The only areas that I would consider conservative are the Hasidic Judaism neighborhoods in Brooklyn and parts of the Bronx.

[Matty]

I’d say yes


Romney did better than trump in all sorts of areas where Trump saw gains

[perpetual_cynic]

I’d say yes


Romney did better than trump in all sorts of areas where Trump saw gains

Users keep comparing the totals to 2016 and while it is true that Trump did several points better in NYC, Trump underperformed Romney and McCain and Bush, etc in Los Angeles County.

[Matty]

I’d say yes


Romney did better than trump in all sorts of areas where Trump saw gains

Users keep comparing the totals to 2016 and while it is true that Trump did several points better in NYC, Trump underperformed Romney and McCain and Bush, etc in Los Angeles County.

Yep.

but, to be fair, it is also true that any claim of biden improving with the WWC is also quite dubious when you compare his totals to obama 2012.

[perpetual_cynic]

I’d say yes




Romney did better than trump in all sorts of areas where Trump saw gains

Users keep comparing the totals to 2016 and while it is true that Trump did several points better in NYC, Trump underperformed Romney and McCain and Bush, etc in Los Angeles County.

Yep.

but, to be fair, it is also true that any claim of biden improving with the WWC is also quite dubious when you compare his totals to obama 2012.

The most striking thing to me was of the 5-percent swing in LA County, <1% of the swing was Biden losing percentage, the other >4% was Trump gaining percent. It was almost as if the third-party + Trump '16 was Trump's new total.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yes, in all honesty almost all of the swings to him in the 2020 election...maybe other than Miami-Dade and Rio Grande Valley, are probably just noise at best. It's probably just a consequence of significantly higher turnout, limited third party presence, the pandemic, and Trump being an incumbent. I don't think those performances by him in urban areas are going to be very easy for other Republican candidates (or even Trump himself if he runs again in 2024) to replicate.

[perpetual_cynic]

Yes, in all honesty almost all of the swings to him in the 2020 election...maybe other than Miami-Dade and Rio Grande Valley, are probably just noise at best. It's probably just a consequence of significantly higher turnout, the pandemic, and Trump being an incumbent. I don't think those performances by him in urban areas are going to be very easy for other Republican candidates (or even Trump himself if he runs again in 2024) to replicate.

I honestly do not believe there is any more room to fall for Dems in Miami-Dade. I say this because Miami-Dade is an urban area. I think a complete political change may be occurring in the Rio Grande Valley.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I’d say yes


Romney did better than trump in all sorts of areas where Trump saw gains

Users keep comparing the totals to 2016 and while it is true that Trump did several points better in NYC, Trump underperformed Romney and McCain and Bush, etc in Los Angeles County.

Yeah, Biden was the 3rd presidential candidate to ever get >70% in LA County. But we're supposed to be astounded that Trump's performance was only the second worst for a runner-up in 100 years?

[If my soul was made of stone]

I’d say yes


Romney did better than trump in all sorts of areas where Trump saw gains

Users keep comparing the totals to 2016 and while it is true that Trump did several points better in NYC, Trump underperformed Romney and McCain and Bush, etc in Los Angeles County.

Yeah, Biden was the 3rd presidential candidate to get >70% in LA County. But we're supposed to be astounded that Trump's performance was only the second worst for a runner-up in 100 years?

A fair bit of noise was made about Trump being the first Republican to crack a million votes in LA County since Bush Sr, although the massive differences in partisanship and turnout since 1988 make it less momentous than it sounds.

[Alben Barkley]

I’d say yes


Romney did better than trump in all sorts of areas where Trump saw gains

Users keep comparing the totals to 2016 and while it is true that Trump did several points better in NYC, Trump underperformed Romney and McCain and Bush, etc in Los Angeles County.

Yeah and considering Trump is from NYC and for decades was seen as an icon of the city, his performance there both times was pretty pathetic. Undoubtedly he was a better cultural fit for the area than he was in other cities or previous GOP nominees were there. And still he did pretty poorly.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

LA Yes, NYC no.

[Non Swing Voter]

very.

(A) because it wasn't much of a swing

(B) because those are two deeply blue states that aren't flipping.

[Motorcity]

Yes, it is over-hyped

Honestly, we are splitting hairs here. No, Hawaii isn't in danger of flipping

I would be far more concerned with RGV and Miami-Dade. Better yet, keeping Mihicagn blue while working on maintaining AZ and GA

[wbrocks67]

Yes, especially since many are very circumstantial given Rs already incredibly low #s in these areas and the fact that Ds were hurt by the lack of in person canvassing.

[Roll Roons]

Yes, especially since many are very circumstantial given Rs already incredibly low #s in these areas and the fact that Ds were hurt by the lack of in person canvassing.

Even if COVID wasn't a thing, why would Democrats waste time and energy canvassing in New York or LA?

[One Term Floridian]

Yes, especially since many are very circumstantial given Rs already incredibly low #s in these areas and the fact that Ds were hurt by the lack of in person canvassing.

Even if COVID wasn't a thing, why would Democrats waste time and energy canvassing in New York or LA?

Yeah they should be canvassing in Long Island and OC

[Skill and Chance]

I’d say yes


Romney did better than trump in all sorts of areas where Trump saw gains

Not really.  Biden generally flipped the Romney holdout enclaves in several megacities.  L.A. County and Cook County are big enough that they include meaningful Romney->Biden suburban areas.  Trump easily did the best since 2004 in most majority-minority urban areas.  Using the two recent elections with the most similar NPV outcomes (2012 and 2020) The Bronx went from 91% Obama 2012 to 83% Biden, Wayne County, MI went from 73% Obama 2012 to 68% Biden, and Philadelphia went from 85% Obama 2012 to 81% Biden, and of course Miami-Dade went from 62% Obama 2012 to 53% Biden.  Those are all meaningful swings in jurisdictions where >400K total votes were cast.

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, especially since many are very circumstantial given Rs already incredibly low #s in these areas and the fact that Ds were hurt by the lack of in person canvassing.

Even if COVID wasn't a thing, why would Democrats waste time and energy canvassing in New York or LA?

Yeah they should be canvassing in Long Island and OC

The deeper story is that political consulting world, acting with obviously self-serving motives convinced so many candidates that in-person organizing and data mining explained Obama's victory in 2012.  Basically every candidate since who has bet on an organizing before persuasion strategy has blown it, and the extent to which this actually explains Obama's reelection is doubtful when you look at the massive persuasion operation he ran to get enough working class Rust Belt voters to stay the course.  Between Cruz 2016, Clinton 2016, Warren 2020, and then Biden winning the GE anyway with zero(!) official door-to-door campaigning due to COVID, you would think this strategy would finally be consigned to the dustbin of history, but unfortunately there is now an entire class of people who hav never had a real job since college and need to keep mythology alive and the political organizing perpetual motion machine going to put food on the table.  In practice, anyone who actually enjoys having a stranger approach them to make a sales pitch about a candidate was already a likely voter for that candidate anyway, doubly so in a D vs. R GE.   

[perpetual_cynic]

I’d say yes


Romney did better than trump in all sorts of areas where Trump saw gains

Not really.  Biden generally flipped the Romney holdout enclaves in several megacities.  L.A. County and Cook County are big enough that they include meaningful Romney->Biden suburban areas.  Trump easily did the best since 2004 in most majority-minority urban areas.  Using the two recent elections with the most similar NPV outcomes (2012 and 2020) The Bronx went from 91% Obama 2012 to 83% Biden, Wayne County, MI went from 73% Obama 2012 to 68% Biden, and Philadelphia went from 85% Obama 2012 to 81% Biden, and of course Miami-Dade went from 62% Obama 2012 to 53% Biden.  Those are all meaningful swings in jurisdictions where >400K total votes were cast.

Forget NYC, Biden's margin over Trump was 2% better than Obama's over Romney's and 4% better than Obama's over McCain. You are taking the most extreme examples (Bronx, Miami-Dade). Most majority minority areas DID NOT see as big of a swing as the Bronx or Miami and certainly not the best since 2004. Look at the city of Milwaukee, majority-minority. Not true. Look at Dallas county, TX. Not true. Look at Fulton County GA. Not true. DeKalb County, Georgia. Not true. In fact, it was really only the Hispanic areas that saw these huge swings. Majority-black areas didn't swing to the proportions you are describing.

[Real Texan Politics]

It could be, but also could be signs of trends (albeit small ones) to come. Though a lot of it may be due to Trump's pro small business message as a result of the pandemic which destroyed numerous small businesses in both LA and NYC.

[sting in the rafters]

Trump did better in urban areas due to ideological polarization. He got the highest % of the self-described conservative vote, which is reflected by the gains he made with low-propensity conservatives. Perhaps the violent crime wave played a major role?


The counter is Trump had the worst margins of any candidate in the modern party system with self-described moderates nationwide. Whether this ideological polarization holds without variable-T will decide how urban areas trend going forward. Less than a decade ago there was discussion how "demographics were destiny" for Ds with pumping urban turnout. Let's be cautious before making any quick judgements.

[wbrocks67]

Yes, especially since many are very circumstantial given Rs already incredibly low #s in these areas and the fact that Ds were hurt by the lack of in person canvassing.

Even if COVID wasn't a thing, why would Democrats waste time and energy canvassing in New York or LA?

I'm not sure what this question is? Do you not realize that there is a serious canvassing effort in dark blue areas to get the vote out? I live in Philly and there were door knockers and signs everywhere in my particular area. But that wasn't the case for some other parts of the city.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Yes, especially since many are very circumstantial given Rs already incredibly low #s in these areas and the fact that Ds were hurt by the lack of in person canvassing.

Even if COVID wasn't a thing, why would Democrats waste time and energy canvassing in New York or LA?

NY-11, CA-25, NY-01, NY-02, CA-48, CA-39, etc. Were competitive, not to mention countless local elections that were competitive.