When will Florida elect a democratic senator again?

[PAK Man]

Given that Scott just barely unseated Nelson, with the right Democrat it could flip. Nelson would have won if he'd ran a better campaign or retired.

[S019]

Given that Scott just barely unseated Nelson, with the right Democrat it could flip. Nelson would have won if he'd ran a better campaign or retired.

Yeah Scott has had close elections all three times, and his margin of victory has declined in each one, what this indicates is he is a deeply polarizing figure, meaning if Republicans win FL by more than 2 points or so, he'll probably be fine, if it is within 2 points either way, it's probably a tossup, and if Democrats win it by 2 points or more, he has probably lost. Basically, I'd expect this to track very closely to the presidential and it is very possible that he underperforms the Republican presidential nominee in Florida.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given that Scott just barely unseated Nelson, with the right Democrat it could flip. Nelson would have won if he'd ran a better campaign or retired.

Yeah Scott has had close elections all three times, and his margin of victory has declined in each one, what this indicates is he is a deeply polarizing figure, meaning if Republicans win FL by more than 2 points or so, he'll probably be fine, if it is within 2 points either way, it's probably a tossup, and if Democrats win it by 2 points or more, he has probably lost. Basically, I'd expect this to track very closely to the presidential and it is very possible that he underperforms the Republican presidential nominee in Florida.

Major difference, though: his gubernatorial elections were in GOP wave years. His election to the senate, however, was in a Democratic wave year against a three-term incumbent Senator.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a D plus 5 Election in 2022 D's will win FL, since the Rs haven't won the PVI since 2016 that is a possibility

[PAK Man]

Given that Scott just barely unseated Nelson, with the right Democrat it could flip. Nelson would have won if he'd ran a better campaign or retired.

Yeah Scott has had close elections all three times, and his margin of victory has declined in each one, what this indicates is he is a deeply polarizing figure, meaning if Republicans win FL by more than 2 points or so, he'll probably be fine, if it is within 2 points either way, it's probably a tossup, and if Democrats win it by 2 points or more, he has probably lost. Basically, I'd expect this to track very closely to the presidential and it is very possible that he underperforms the Republican presidential nominee in Florida.

Major difference, though: his gubernatorial elections were in GOP wave years. His election to the senate, however, was in a Democratic wave year against a three-term incumbent Senator.

Except it wasn't a wave year in the senate, and Democrats knew that going into the midterm.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

It's mathematically impossible. My infallible Flormula, as follows, shows:

R_Marg = (D_Gen + R_Gen)/FL_Elect ≈ 0.01263947

R_Marg = (D_Gen + R_Rubio)/FL_Elect ≈ 20.82954631

R_Marg = ((D_Sanders + R_Gen)/FL_Elect) × SOCIAL_ομγ ≈ 35.91765278

R_Marg = ((D_Sanders + R_Rubio)/FL_Elect) × SOCIAL_ομγ = ∞

Therefore, the Florida theorem rules out the possibility of a Democratic victory.

You really think FL which was won by 3.0 by Trump within margin of error is gonna vote R.

African Americans Latinos and females make up Majority of the voting block in FL, and Cali



Male users always underestimate female vote that's why Hassan still has a chance

This is true with every state, even Wyoming and West Virginia. 0 States have White Males as the majority voting block.

[Skill and Chance]

When seniors stop flocking down there and perpetually replenishing themselves as a major voting bloc, and when Miami-Dade starts consistently voting like they did in 2016 for Clinton all while Democratic support is sustained elsewhere in the state.

So in other words: never.

If it continues to be a retiree destination, what happens when millennials are eventually the new seniors?  That is probably the most plausible scenario for how Florida flips back. 

Who knows what our politics will be like by then though? And what if most millennial feel how I do about it and prefer different retirement destinations by then? But fine, I'll give you this, "never" is indeed a bit too strong of a word. But certainly I am convinced that it's going to require a Doug Jones-esque fluke for the foreseeable future. At least for ten to twenty years.

True, but there's a historical stickiness to voting patterns based on what people experienced in their teens/early 20's that is so strong it almost defies common sense.  Bill Clinton's best age group were New Deal generation seniors, and as late as 2012, Obama did notably better with age 80+ than age 65-80.  Also, think about how all the close elections during 1876-1948 basically looked like the Civil War. 

Many things in our politics will change between now and 2050, but I would be shocked if Democrats don't continue to win a majority of Millennials for this reason.  What Democrats stand for/against at that point almost doesn't matter.

[Vosem]

When seniors stop flocking down there and perpetually replenishing themselves as a major voting bloc, and when Miami-Dade starts consistently voting like they did in 2016 for Clinton all while Democratic support is sustained elsewhere in the state.

So in other words: never.

If it continues to be a retiree destination, what happens when millennials are eventually the new seniors?  That is probably the most plausible scenario for how Florida flips back. 

Who knows what our politics will be like by then though? And what if most millennial feel how I do about it and prefer different retirement destinations by then? But fine, I'll give you this, "never" is indeed a bit too strong of a word. But certainly I am convinced that it's going to require a Doug Jones-esque fluke for the foreseeable future. At least for ten to twenty years.

True, but there's a historical stickiness to voting patterns based on what people experienced in their teens/early 20's that is so strong it almost defies common sense.  Bill Clinton's best age group were New Deal generation seniors, and as late as 2012, Obama did notably better with age 80+ than age 65-80.  Also, think about how all the close elections during 1876-1948 basically looked like the Civil War. 

Many things in our politics will change between now and 2050, but I would be shocked if Democrats don't continue to win a majority of Millennials for this reason.  What Democrats stand for/against at that point almost doesn't matter.

Well, the thing is that people generally continue to vote the way they start voting, so people who (for instance) register as young voters and support Democrats normally continue doing so throughout their lives. But the older people are when they experience their political awakenings, the more conservative they tend to be (see occasional stories about 85-year-olds casting first votes for Donald Trump).

I think high youth turnout in 2020 is a good long-term omen for Democrats even if turnout virtually certainly declines over the next few cycles, but I'm not sure that the generation couldn't swing right because of people who didn't vote in 2020 but may vote for the first time in 2040 or 2052 or something -- consider that the Obamamania generation (18-30 in 2008, so 31-44 now), while still Democratic, is no longer all that Democratic and was in fact pretty closely contested in 2014/2016 (though they've swung back some out of distaste for Trump, they seem obviously gettable for the GOP as a whole).

[NYDem]

No state that is trending right will ever elect a Democrat again, and no state that is trending left will ever elect a Republican again. It’s not 2006 anymore.

[EastwoodS]

No state that is trending right will ever elect a Democrat again, and no state that is trending left will ever elect a Republican again. It’s not 2006 anymore.

? There are solid red and blue states trending right and left so what are you talking about?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lol, people voted Never.

[TDAS04]

Go Crist!  Take Rubio out next year!