Did the Cal Cunningham scandal cost Biden North Carolina?

[Tekken_Guy]

Did Cal Cunningham's scandal cost Joe Biden North Carolina?

[Mr. Smith]

No, the scandal was the inevitable breaker to a McGutless who really had no rights to try again after 2010.

Shooing away Jeff Jackson was the true point the state was lost, though a Bernie nomination with Erica Smith might well have juiced the black turnout [the sporadic kind, not the oldies that dictate primaries] and bled less from the Lumbee.

[Wormless Gourd]

Comparing polling crosstabs before and after the story broke, Cal lost support with women and older people and the amount of undecided increased. Certainly screwed himself, but I don't see how it effects Biden. There was huge amounts of ticket splitting in the state already.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. Honestly, Cunningham probably still would have lost even without the scandal.

[Motorcity]

Normally, I don't think it matters

But considering how close it was, maybe?

[If my soul was made of stone]

It obviously didn't help, but big trends such as slippage in the Sandhills and Black Belt were forecast in 2018 and 2019, and probably could've thrown the state into the Republican column regardless.

[Alben Barkley]

If it did I want to know what the hell was going on in the heads of voters who said “This dude is such a sleazebag, he told a woman that she was historically sexy, so I guess I’ll vote for Donald Trump.”

[Samof94]

No. Honestly, Cunningham probably still would have lost even without the scandal.

He wasn’t that great a candidate

[Motorcity]

If it did I want to know what the hell was going on in the heads of voters who said “This dude is such a sleazebag, he told a woman that she was historically sexy, so I guess I’ll vote for Donald Trump.”

I don't think the scandal caused anyone to switch from Democrat to Republican. Truly swing voters who can swing either way don't really exist anymore.

But its possible it caused 70k potential Democratic voters to stay home.

I know it sounds weird, but sometimes a senator gets more votes than the presidential ticket and helps the presidential ticket. Its a reverse cottail effect. The only reason Hillary won New Hampshire in 2016 was because Maggie Hassan won her senate race. Its possible Biden only won Arizona because of Mark Kelly who over performed him.

Remember, Cunningham was running ahead of Biden most of the race

[perpetual_cynic]

Can anyone describe a Cooper/Cunningham/Trump voter in NC or a Cooper/Tillis/Biden voter?

[Ferguson97]

Can anyone describe a Cooper/Cunningham/Trump voter in NC or a Cooper/Tillis/Biden voter?

No clue on Cooper/Cunningham/Trump, but the Cooper/Tillis/Biden voter is easy - they're an Independent who is tired of Trump, approves of Cooper as Governor, and wants a Republican Senate as a "check" on Biden.

[TML]

I know it sounds weird, but sometimes a senator gets more votes than the presidential ticket and helps the presidential ticket. Its a reverse cottail effect. The only reason Hillary won New Hampshire in 2016 was because Maggie Hassan won her senate race. Its possible Biden only won Arizona because of Mark Kelly who over performed him.

So by the same token, would you say that Trump won states like FL/NC/PA/WI in 2016 thanks to the coattails of Marco Rubio, Richard Burr, Pat Toomey, and Ron Johnson, respectively?

[VAR]

Here’s something people don’t realize: While Cunningham did very well in rural areas, he ran behind most statewide Dems in the big urban counties.

Mecklenburg County (Charlotte):
President: Biden +35.1
Senate: Cunningham +29.2
Governor: Cooper +37.5
Lieutenant Governor: Holley +30.9
Attorney General: Stein +32.8
Secretary of State: Marshall +34.1
Treasurer: Chatterji +24.9
Superintendent of Public Education: Mangrum +30.0
Auditor: Wood +33.4
Commissioner of Agriculture: Wadsworth +28.5
Commissioner of Insurance: Goodwin +28.1
Commissioner of Labor: Holmes +31.7

Wake County (Raleigh):
President: Biden +26.5
Senate: Cunningham +21.6
Governor: Cooper +32.0
Lieutenant Governor: Holley +22.6
Attorney General: Stein +26.3
Secretary of State: Marshall +28.4
Treasurer: Chatterji +18.0
Superintendent of Public Education: Mangrum +22.5
Auditor: Wood +28.5
Commissioner of Agriculture: Wadsworth +11.6
Commissioner of Insurance: Goodwin +20.8
Commissioner of Labor: Holmes +23.4

I could post results from other counties as well, but the pattern is clear. The three Democrats who did worse than Cunningham were running against GOP incumbents Causey, Folwell, and Troxler, all of whom are much more popular than Thom Tillis.

Given that there tends to be less ticket-splitting in federal races than statewide races, and that Tillis is not a particularly strong incumbent, it’s hard to come up with an explanation as to why nobodies like Beth Wood, Yvonne Holley, Jessica Holmes, and Jen Mangrum did better than Cal Cunningham in metropolitan NC....

....other than that the scandal did change the trajectory of the race.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Can anyone describe a Cooper/Cunningham/Trump voter in NC or a Cooper/Tillis/Biden voter?

Cooper-Cunningham-Biden may be a rural voter who is economically moderate but socially conservative voter and voted for Obama Twice.