Has Trump already damaged his reputation too much to win in 2024?

[Progressive Pessimist]

While I do think he would be at his weakest in comparison to the two other elections, we can't again underestimate his idiot-whisperer abilities and the tendency for American voters to have the attention spans and memory abilities worse than that of a goldfish. I mean, we're already seeing the insurrection fade from peoples' recollections.

That's why, even if he does truly end up being damaged to the point of being the best opponent possible for Biden in 2024, I really just do not want to deal with him in another election cycle.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

If Trump isn't a viable candidate in 2024, it's not because of "tHe InSuRrEcTiOn" (which, like the summer 2020 riots, will be totally irrelevant to people not deeply involved in politics within a year or so), but it will be because of the energy and enthusiasm behind MAGA will have petered out with Trump both out of power and out of 95% of the internet.  That's the biggest risk for the GOP running with Trump again.

[Chips]

No.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

No lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No.

He is considered a 46 percent Prez and got impeached twice, he is damaged goids

[McGarnagle]

Only for the general - he just barely squeaked by in 2016 and has burned too many bridges since.

It doesn't matter how many more votes he got in 2020 than in 2016 - he inspired even more people to vote against him, even if they weren't entirely happy with Biden. Most of those voters will show up in 2024 to vote for Biden again, or for Harris, and will be joined by younger voters who weren't eligible to vote in 2020, while at the same time, more die-off of demographics favorable to Trump will have happened.

That said, he'd easily win the Republican primaries and the nomination, as he has successfully transformed 98% of it into a cult of personality. It's going to take at least a decade for that to wear off and for something different to take its place.

[BlueSwan]

No.

The primary will probably be a 50-state sweep for Trump against basically no serious opposition.

For the general, it will be close as usual and various factors will influence the outcome, as usual. The GQP is introducing massive voter suppression everywhere and both gerrymandering and the new EC apportionment will both favour the GQP even more than we are used to. A democrat will probably have to win by at least 4.5%-points to actually win the electoral college in 2024 and this is exactly what Biden won by in 2020. In other words, I am pretty damn nervous about 2024. Anybody who outright declares that Trump can't win doesn't understand the ignorance of the average american voter.

[pbrower2a]

Because the GOP is a personality cult that participates in elections, Trump can win the primary. He loses in the general election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Liz Cheney said she is gonna do everything to stop Trump in 2024 he still have indictments pending in NY

It's something that the Rs grasp to a 2 time impeached Prez and got 46.9 percent of the vote.

Even in 2016 he never got above 50

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I can't believe I have to say this again, but Trump is not going to run again because he's paranoid enough to believe that Democrats were successful at stealing the last election from him, so they will steal the next one from him as well. He won't stand to be humiliated again.

Why doesn't someone in this thread explain how Trump will be able to overcome his own expressed theory that the Democrats STOLE election 2020 from him but Democrats will NOT try to steal the election from him in 2024 as well? Why will he try to run again if he has so much clearly expressed confidence that the electoral system was and still is rigged against him?

Because none of his potential voters are primarily motivated by rationality to begin with. If they were, they would not be potential Trump voters in the first place.

[bandg]

People are far overestimating the effects of 1/6. The fact is most people outside the DC/media bubble have forgotten about it already.

The most recent Economist/YouGov poll has Trump's favorability at 45/52. This is his highest rating since 5/2020 (when it was 46/52).
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/zqplrjlj3n/econTabReport.pdf

Trump came within 0.6% in the tipping point state of winning the election. If he runs and wins the nomination in 2024, his chances in the general are very much alive. The far bigger factor will be the approval rating of the Biden (or Harris) administration.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People are far overestimating the effects of 1/6. The fact is most people outside the DC/media bubble have forgotten about it already.

The most recent Economist/YouGov poll has Trump's favorability at 45/52. This is his highest rating since 5/2020 (when it was 46/52).
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/zqplrjlj3n/econTabReport.pdf

Trump came within 0.6% in the tipping point state of winning the election. If he runs and wins the nomination in 2024, his chances in the general are very much alive. The far bigger factor will be the approval rating of the Biden (or Harris) administration.

What, there is a Commission as we speak being set up on the Insurrectionists, Trump is at 32% Approvals and he isn't gonna be Prez with Biden at 59% Approvals

[Vosem]

He came within 0.6% of winning the 2020 election, which is a margin so narrow that it's plausible he would've won with a better final news cycle (if the media had focused on the Hunter Biden story more, for instance, or if the vaccine announcements came two weeks earlier). His favorables in polling have not shifted since then.

(Similarly, his 0.8% victory in 2016 was so close that he would've likely lost in the absence of Comey reopening his investigation of Hillary. That was a little more decisive than 2020, though.)

I think if Trump runs in 2024, his election would basically be a coin-flip unless something extremely unexpected happens. The average of his prior performances would be 0.1% victory, so maybe he would even start slightly advantaged, though demographics are probably a little weaker now and he's never faced an incumbent directly, so you can definitely argue this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't be a coin flip DeSantis losing by 17 pts to Biden and Harris

The Election is basically over an INCUMBENT has never lost when they are above 50% and all D's have to do is won MI, WI and PA and all our INCUMBENTs Govs are gonna be Reelected, Whitmer is up by 10, Evers is leading by 5 and Shapiro will he the next Gov of PA

We can win some wave insurance seats in IA, OH, NC, GA and FL too

[SN2903]

No. In 2024 there won't be the same level of anti-Trump enthusiasm as 2020 and it Biden/Harris administrations record will be very important. It would be at least a coin flip election.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

American voters have the memories of goldfishes, and the average person doesn’t remember or think about the Capitol Riot as much as people in DC/media might think if at all. While it’s certainly something that will politically loom over Trump, the “average Joe” who isn’t in tune with politics has probably forgotten about it already. Sorry, but the average Joe has more concerns than a political protest in DC gone wrong.

Ask yourself: Does the average person think about the 2016 Dallas Police Shootings, Charlottesville, Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, the 2018 Pittsburgh Synagogue or 2019 New Zealand Mosque Shootings, or 2015-2016 era ISIS/Islamic terror attacks (Orlando, Paris, etc) every single day? Do you? Probably not, and in 4 years they won’t remember the Capitol Riots either. I think they’ve already long forgotten.

The average Joe probably will have a more vivid memory of where they were when Kobe Bryant died than any of these events.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

PS: If Democrats make their 2022 and 2024 attack ads mostly or even overly based on showing footage of 1/6 repeatedly and using muh “qQp dEsTrOyInG dEmOcRaCy” esque arguments 24/7, they’ll get utterly shellacked. Particularly if Trump isn’t on the ballot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PS: If Democrats make their 2022 and 2024 attack ads mostly or even overly based on showing footage of 1/6 repeatedly and using muh “qQp dEsTrOyInG dEmOcRaCy” esque arguments 24/7, they’ll get utterly shellacked. Particularly if Trump isn’t on the ballot.

Trump lost the Election on tax cuts for the rich and oil drilling ruining the Environment that's why Ds lost AK, MT, KS and TX wave insurence Senate races due to fact Biden came out against Keystone

IA, NC, OH, NC and FL doesn't have Keystone Pipeline this time, in 2022 or 2024, we are able to get those seats much better this time

Tax cuts for rich is UNPOPULARITY, and Biden passed 2K cheques
 
If Rs maintain the Senate they wouldn't have give us 2K cheques

Kelly is already 10 pts ahead of his R challengers, if Rs lose AZ they're not going nba win the EC in 2024

[ElectionsGuy]

So, my slightly personal but also slightly objective opinion is I think so, but I'm unsure. If he's facing Biden again, I think he'd lose. Harris, not so sure. Things would also have to be on the negative side for the Biden admin by 2023 for him to have a chance. We know polling will show a blue wave anyway. The Republican Party is much better off nominating someone with strong ties to Trump and the issues he pushed while having a more palatable personality, demeanor, and vocabulary to disseminate these issues. Right now, It's obvious that DeSantis is getting a disproportionate share of attention, but I really do think he's the best answer for this right now. Otherwise, I see Pence, Hawley, or Cruz as other natural candidates who could fill the void (but each has weaknesses).

If Trump runs again, and everybody else will be on hold until he makes a final decision, prepare for big tech and media to have a large debate about broadcasting him. Every single big tech company has shut him out right now, but it's quite literally impossible for that to be the case if he's going to run for president again. You can't just ban anybody for putting up video of Trump, that's not going to work and it'll expose the absurdity of the whole thing.

[2016]

I honestly think it depends how the 2022 Midterms go for Republicans. If the GOP retakes either the House or the Senate in 2022 Trump runs I think.

[Chips]

I honestly think it depends how the 2022 Midterms go for Republicans. If the GOP retakes either the House or the Senate in 2022 Trump runs I think.

Not necessarily.

[SN2903]

American voters have the memories of goldfishes, and the average person doesn’t remember or think about the Capitol Riot as much as people in DC/media might think if at all. While it’s certainly something that will politically loom over Trump, the “average Joe” who isn’t in tune with politics has probably forgotten about it already. Sorry, but the average Joe has more concerns than a political protest in DC gone wrong.

Ask yourself: Does the average person think about the 2016 Dallas Police Shootings, Charlottesville, Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, the 2018 Pittsburgh Synagogue or 2019 New Zealand Mosque Shootings, or 2015-2016 era ISIS/Islamic terror attacks (Orlando, Paris, etc) every single day? Do you? Probably not, and in 4 years they won’t remember the Capitol Riots either. I think they’ve already long forgotten.

The average Joe probably will have a more vivid memory of where they were when Kobe Bryant died than any of these events.

Agree 200%. Spot on. If the Democrats are stuck in the last election cycle they will get clobbered in 2024. Part of the reason Trump struggled in 2020 is he didn't talk enough about his accomplishments and the next 4 years. He was still looking backwards too much or unfocused on message. In 2004 when Bush was re-elected he was very focused on his own achievements the last 4 years.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1/6 really isn't shaping up to be remotely near 9/11 in terms of public perception. That makes sense. The death toll from 1/6 was quite minor. And 1/6 is unlikely to really matter in the 2024 election either.
Ds would be well-advised not to be hyper-focused on 1/6 if Trump does run again.

[BlueSwan]

While I do think he would be at his weakest in comparison to the two other elections, we can't again underestimate his idiot-whisperer abilities and the tendency for American voters to have the attention spans and memory abilities worse than that of a goldfish. I mean, we're already seeing the insurrection fade from peoples' recollections.

That's why, even if he does truly end up being damaged to the point of being the best opponent possible for Biden in 2024, I really just do not want to deal with him in another election cycle.

Donald Trump, the idiot-whisperer. I like it!

[Hope For A New Era]

He had damaged his reputation too much to win in 2016, and then he won.

He had damaged his reputation too much to win in 2020, and then he almost won.


So, no.