States you really worry about? (user search)
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  States you really worry about? (search mode)
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Author Topic: States you really worry about?  (Read 1425 times)
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« on: April 08, 2021, 03:44:02 AM »

The only state I really worry about is Nevada.

Pennsylvania's rural areas have been deep-R for decades. All we're seeing now is a switch from Dem strength in ancestral areas to Dem strength in suburbs. 2016 was max-R for PA, because it fell in the gap between the two: after one shift, but before the other. Not really something I worry about.

As for Maine, New England has a unique political culture. Biden won the state by 9. It should be fine. Knock on wood.

But Nevada? That one is scary. Trends in that state have suddenly gone from seemingly favorable to Dems to ambiguous, and the state has voted further to the right in every post-2008 election. That's pretty worrying. If you look at the state's political history, it's probably the most consistently swingy and competitive state in the country over time. We can't count on it consistently being Democratic, even if Democrats seem to have the advantage right now. The large legislative majorities look strong, but they come from geography. 2018 reveals the truth: Though Democrats won six of seven statewide races (all except Secretary of State), no Democrat received more than 50.6% of the vote. Conine and Ford almost certainly would have lost if not for the third-party candidates in their races, and Araujo likely would have won if there had been a third-party candidate in his race. This was in a D+8 national environment. Some of them were defeating incumbents, yes, but that's still not a good sign for 2022, not at all.
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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Posts: 4,729


« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2021, 01:19:00 PM »

Maine demographically is one of the few Dem states that really shouldn't be voting Dem. It reminds me of Iowa in 2012, and I worry that one day the Dem lead will break in the same way.

New England has a unique political culture.

Of course, Iowa did too, but only beginning in the 1980s. New England has voted idiosyncratically for a very long time. Not really any reason for it to stop now.
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