States you really worry about?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's already have 278 blue wall states 2024 D's Klobuchar, Baldwin, Casey, Stabenow, Kaine, Rosen will be Reelected, that's why Biden said he will be a 2T Prez that's enough to solidify the blue wall, THE END

If we win a combo of OH, IA, NC and FL in 2022 we are off to Filibuster reform and Crt packing

D's won the PVI by 3 last time, they are likely to get wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gotcha, that's helpful, thank you. Are there any states that you really worry about, or is every competitive race likely to break for Republicans all the time?

I mean, believe it or not, I don’t predict Republican wins all the time (see my prediction record/compilation below my avatar). I’m more bullish on Republicans in 2022 not just because it’s a midterm under a very aggressive D trifecta, but also because the Senate map is nowhere near as unfavorable for Republicans as the 2018 battlefield was for Democrats. I really don’t see how WI/PA/AZ/NV, for instance, should be classified as anything better than Tossup for Democrats, and I don’t think that’s a hackish prediction at all (it might seem that way because the forum is overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning). Obviously Democrats could win some of these races, but I’d definitely rather bet on the Republicans. This forum also overdoes it on the "NH is the most elastic state in the country" shtick, and I’m certainly less confident about NH (in the long run) and particularly GA, where I think any R win in 2022 would amount to somewhat of a last hurrah unless party coalitions really change dramatically, allowing Republicans to gain ground in inner-city Atlanta (far more so than the suburbs, which are trending away at an even more rapid pace than NoVA) and the Black Belt — very unlikely. I do think Biden's margin of victory in NH/ME was somewhat of an aberration/Democratic overperformance and it’s clear that Republicans still have significant room for improvement in those two states (as well as states like RI or even VT), but ME in particular will be tougher to flip than I expected given those coastal trends. My expectations for NH were never high to begin with, so I was less surprised by that state's D trend (although I would have been if you had shown me the IA/OH/IL/WI county maps).

Texas is the state any Republican/Republican-leaning independent/conservative should be most worried about simply because 2020 illustrated just how indispensable it is to the party remaining competitive at the national level (with large parts of the Midwest & especially the Northeast/New England proving a lot less reliable in terms of long-term R trends). 2020 might have been a R sweep/overperformance in TX, but that’s only because the expectations were already so low that it should have been alarming to the GOP. The TX GOP obviously should have sounded the alarm bells in 2016, and it had better hope that their outreach to Hispanic and (potentially) working-class voters of color (not just in the RGV/South Texas, because that only buys them another cycle or two given that region's comparatively small population) really bears fruit/gains steam. If it doesn’t, they need to pray that migration patterns in TX become more favorable than even they might have anticipated & that the state attracts a wave of conservative migrants somewhat similar to FL.  

I’m also more worried about North Carolina slipping away than most other posters on this forum (including pessimistic Democrats), who, in familiar Atlas/Talk Elections fashion, seem to have overcompensated for their initial (unwarranted) confidence about a blue NC by now overestimating Republican chances. R strength in that state is fueled by unusual exurban margins more so than GA-type margins in rural/small-town areas, and we’ve seen in GA how quickly even some of those exurbs can trend away. Just because it hasn’t happened in NC yet doesn’t mean it will remain perpetually Titanium Tilt R. In terms of unwarranted overconfidence/deceptive strength/'shakiness' within the respective parties' coalitions, NC is pretty much to Republicans what NV is to Democrats.

I actually agree with you that MN and NM will be very tough to flip, the only reason I listed those in that 2026 Senate thread was because I was assuming a very favorable environment for the GOP in that particular scenario, where opposing trends can lag behind a little (case in point: VA 2014, IA 2018). I certainly don’t see either state flipping (or even being particularly close) in a neutral election in the 2020s. Like you, I’d be surprised if NM somehow proved to be more fertile ground for Republicans than NV, and the fact that it trended Democratic this year doesn’t inspire confidence.

With regard to the Senate/House, I think the biggest underrated threat to the GOP is some of these Western/Great Plains states trending away from the party to varying extents. Trump might have been a 'uniquely bad fit' for UT, but that state's leftward shift (along with that of AK) is very much real, as is the potential for Democratic leaps in NE/MT/KS. In some of these states, the GOP sweep in 2020 overshadowed some unfavorable long-term trends. Given how reliant the Republicans' 'natural' Senate advantage (which is overstated anyway) is on a near-sweep of the Mountain and Great Plains states, they can’t afford to lose too much ground in those regions. 2016 and 2020 also demonstrated the limits of a 'max out the white vote' strategy, which was seriously entertained even as recently as 2012 (with "libertarian" Oregon/Colorado/New Hampshire/etc. supposedly making up for R losses in Virginia/North Carolina/even Florida/etc. — that didn’t age well).

Are you aware that the Rs haven't won the PVI since 2016

2022 is not at all like 2014 where we had a red Senate map and 2010 we had 11 percent Unemployment


All the Rs believe this is a 2014 Election and we lost AR, AK, LA, MT, SD,  and WVA

We only lost 1 blue state CO and Scott Brown is the same as Sununu scenario


A SUPERMAJORITY SENATE will actually help Afro Americans with immigrants not inhibite, Shelia Jackson Lee will pass DC Statehood and Reparations for Afro Americans