States you really worry about?

[Meatball Ron]

*Not necessarily specific just to 2024*

For people with strong partisan beliefs / affiliations - what states really worry you, either because they're trending away from your party, aren't moving toward your party as quickly as you think they should be, etc.? Obviously we all know which states are moving in which direction, so I'm not so much asking for a list as inquiring, what are the 1-2 states that you have a bad instinctual feeling about?

For me, as a Dem, it's Nevada. Regardless of whether last year's Republican gains with Hispanic voters turn out to be a trend or a fluke, this is a state with very low education levels, and Clark County has never given Dems the margins you'd hope or expect from a major urban area. Surely, I'd still rather be a Dem here than a Republican here given recent results, the comparative benches of each party, but I think this is one that could become a real problem over the next decade.

North Carolina is also concerning to me - other than Obama and Hagan's 2008 wins, we haven't won a federal race there since (admittedly, there wasn't one in the good Dem years of 2012 and 2018, so part of it was bad luck with timing). Cooper also underperformed expectations this year and, IIRC, in 2016. Dems still have room to fall here in the rural areas (unlike in GA), and the metro areas aren't as large or diverse as in Georgia. I think holding at least 1 of the 2 Senate seats here will be vital to Dems having a Senate majority in the near future.

I worry less (some, but less) about PA/MI/WI - obviously these are and will continue to be swing states (and in fact, have been for a while if you look at the '00 and '04 results - Obama made them look bluer than they ever were). But I struggle to believe that any will be "gone" for the Dems (e.g., will remain very light blue or at worst, purple). Population shifts out of the rural areas in these states, and continuing room for Dem gains in the more rapidly growing suburbs, has me a little more optimistic about these states than the average Dem. I would be more worried if they were vital for a path to 270 (if anything, they're much more vital for a Senate majority).

[Meatball Ron]

I would worry about NV, but since it's "undeniably" becoming a red state and going the way of MO, I guess it doesn't pay to worry about it inevitably going Republican by double digits.

Sarcasm? I'm worried about it but this is...extreme. Where are all the Dem voters going / where are all the GOP voters coming from that's going to make the state double digits lol

[Meatball Ron]

As a Democrat: Nevada, Maine, Pennsylvania.

Maine is an interesting one - could pose a problem, but I am comforted by the strong D trends this year (along with population growth) in ME-01, along with the population declines in ME-02. Yes, it's white and rural, but it is definitively New England, not the South, which means a different culture (driven in large part by the irreligiosity) and therefore a smaller inclination to vote GOP.

[Meatball Ron]

I would worry about NV, but since it's "undeniably" becoming a red state and going the way of MO, I guess it doesn't pay to worry about it inevitably going Republican by double digits.

Sarcasm? I'm worried about it but this is...extreme. Where are all the Dem voters going / where are all the GOP voters coming from that's going to make the state double digits lol

It’s sarcasm. He’s obsessed with NV staying Democratic.

Gotcha, that's helpful, thank you. Are there any states that you really worry about, or is every competitive race likely to break for Republicans all the time?

[Meatball Ron]

I worry less (some, but less) about PA/MI/WI - obviously these are and will continue to be swing states (and in fact, have been for a while if you look at the '00 and '04 results - Obama made them look bluer than they ever were). But I struggle to believe that any will be "gone" for the Dems (e.g., will remain very light blue or at worst, purple). Population shifts out of the rural areas in these states, and continuing room for Dem gains in the more rapidly growing suburbs, has me a little more optimistic about these states than the average Dem. I would be more worried if they were vital for a path to 270 (if anything, they're much more vital for a Senate majority).

PA voted 3.6 points right of the NPV, Wisconsin voted 4.1 points right of the NPV, those are both a non-insubstantial trend right from 2016.  Michigan trended left by about half a point, to 1.9 points right of the PV.  And this was with Joe Biden as the nominee.  Do you think Bernie, Warren or Buttigieg would have seriously won WI or PA?  Believing they will remain tilt D is wishful thinking.

The bottom hasn't fallen out for rural Democratic support yet in WI or MI.  PA is closer to maxed out for the GOP since the middle of the state is culturally appalachian, and votes like it, but Biden was the best candidate to flip it back with areas like Erie and the Philly suburbs.

I don't think they will "remain tilt D" but I do think there may be more cause for concern with Nevada, and that thinking they'll be permanently Lean R (or worse) in a few years is also wishful thinking. I obviously know what the trends have been; I also know that the rural areas (where there may or may not be further room for Ds to fall) are stagnant or shrinking while the suburbs both continue to trend D and continue to get larger. I just think they will be very, very purple for quite a while. Also, I am not one of those Dems who thinks the Midwest will revert back to 2012 levels without Trump on the ballot, but we do need to see what impact this will have on both turnout and swing voter outcomes. 2018 probably isn't the best proxy since it was such a great year for Dems; 2022 may be more informative.

[Meatball Ron]

Gotcha, that's helpful, thank you. Are there any states that you really worry about, or is every competitive race likely to break for Republicans all the time?

Snip

Really great post, thanks for writing all that out, agree with pretty much everything. My "will GOP win everything" jab (unnecessary, admittedly) was less an implication that you overestimate GOP chances, and more a reference to the fact that a lot of your energy on this forum seems to be devoted toward memeing on or pushing back against Democratic over-confidence (and exaggerating the extent of that over-confidence). This is reasonable given the share of Dems on this forum and I would probably behave similarly if I was in the political minority on a platform, but it does grate on me every so often.