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« on: April 08, 2021, 04:35:50 AM » |
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Maine demographically is one of the few Dem states that really shouldn't be voting Dem. It reminds me of Iowa in 2012, and I worry that one day the Dem lead will break in the same way.
2020 was really reassuring with Minnesota and New Hampshire though, the education divide looks like it will ultimately save Dems there. The other swing states have trends that can roughly balance out. The worry is not that they will permanently drift from Democrats, but that the timing of the trends will be wrong so that WI is suddenly 6 points to the right of the nation and TX is not quite there yet either. I even think FL might still be able to snap back.
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